What could be the outcome of US presidential election if a candidate dies or becomes incapacitated?

After the breaking news that US President, Donald Trump and First Lady Melania have tested positive for coronavirus, stocks in Europe, United States and Asia nosedived on Friday. The news heaps even more uncertainty onto a growing pile of unknowns facing investors, including how the diagnosis might affect the 3rd November 3 election and policies on trade, tariffs and many other issues beyond then.

According to White House Chief of Staff, Mark Meadows, Trump has mild symptoms, but the diagnosis less than five weeks ahead of 3rd November election. However, the news has raised questions, what happens if a presidential candidate or the president-elect dies or becomes incapacitated.

The most important question being asked is, will election be postponed? It is very unlikely to happen because the US Constitution gives Congress the power to determine the election date. Under US law, the election takes place on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, every four years.

The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives would almost certainly object to delaying the election, even if the Republican-controlled Senate voted to do so. The presidential election has never been postponed.

Another question is what happens if a candidate dies ahead of the election?

Both the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee have rules that call for their members to vote on a replacement nominee. However, it is likely too late to replace a candidate in time for the election.

Early voting is underway, with more than 2.2 million votes cast. The deadline to change ballots in many states has also passed; mail ballots, which are expected to be widely used due to the coronavirus pandemic, have been sent to voters in two dozen states.

Unless Congress delays the election, voters would still choose between the Republican Trump and Democrat Joe Biden even if one died before 3rd November. If the winner is deceased, however, a new set of questions emerges.

What happens if a candidate dies before the Electoral College votes?

Under the Electoral College system, the winner of the election is determined by securing a majority of “electoral votes” allotted to the 50 states and the District of Columbia in proportion to their population. The Electoral College’s electors are scheduled to meet on 14th December to vote for president. The winner must receive at least 270 of the 538 total Electoral College votes.

Each state’s electoral votes typically go to the winner of the state’s popular vote. Some states allow electors to vote for anyone they choose, but more than half of the states bind electors to cast their votes for the winner.

Most state laws that bind electors do not contemplate what to do if a candidate dies. Michigan’s law requires electors to vote for the winning candidates who appeared on the ballot. Indiana law, by contrast, states that electors should switch to a party’s replacement if the candidate has died.

In the event of a candidate’s death, the opposing party might challenge in court whether bound electors should be allowed to vote for a replacement. How will the Supreme Court handle a controversy like this? It is unlikely that a party would try to defy the will of voters if it was clear a particular candidate won the election.

What if a winner dies after the Electoral College has voted, but before Congress has certified the vote?

No winning candidate has ever died after the election but before inauguration. The closest instance came in 1872, when Horace Greeley died on 29th November, weeks after losing the election to Ulysses Grant. The 66 electoral votes that Greeley earned ended up largely split among his running mate and other minor candidates.