Thursday 22 October 2020

USD witnessing persistent selling

With 13 days until the US Presidential election, it is no surprise to see investors selling greenback. President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden are locked in a tight race. There are growing fears, if Biden wins by a narrow margin, Trump may not leave office willingly. 

Despite a raging second virus wave in many Eurozone nations, the common currency is on a tear. It is almost hard to believe that EUR/USD hit a one month high on Wednesday. Some of the biggest countries in Europe have implemented new restrictions and Europeans are staying at home as much as possible. This behavior will undoubtedly weigh on growth.

There have been some comments suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) is not ready to ease policies, but if the economy freezes up from a second wave, it will have no choice. The only reason EUR is strong is because of its attracting demand from investors selling USD. 

GBP also hit a one month high versus the greenback. Brexit deal hopes and mixed inflation data helped to lift the currency. Consumer prices rose in September, which was less than expected but stronger than the previous month. Producer prices beat expectations and rose at a faster pace. The durability of EUR and GBP rally will hinge upon Friday’s PMI reports.

Recently, the New Zealand and Australian currieries saw strong gains today on the back of USD weakness. There’s a very clear trend of improving NZ data and weakening AU data that should continue to drive these currencies lower.

Saturday 17 October 2020

Has US election already been hijacked?

Both Republicans and Democrats fear that the other party will attempt to hijack this election. President Trump is convinced that mail-in ballots are a scam except in Florida, where it’s safe to vote by mail because of its “great Republican governor.”

The FBI is worried about foreign hackers continuing to target and exploit vulnerabilities in the nation’s electoral system, sowing distrust about the parties, the process and the outcome.

There is growing perception that the voting booths have already been hijacked by political elites comprising of Republicans and Democrats, who are adamant at retaining power at all costs. The outcome is a foregone conclusion, Deep State will win and people will lose.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which has been tasked with helping to secure the elections and protect the nation against cyberattacks. Many believe that DHS is not exactly an agency known for its adherence to freedom principles. There is also a perception that DHS is responsible for turning the American republic into a police state.

Voters want to live in the fantasy that they’re electing someone who truly represents the citizenry rather than the Deep State. However, the harsh reality is that it doesn’t matter who wins the White House, because they all work for the same boss: Corporate America. Understanding this, many corporations hedge their bets on who will win the White House by splitting their donations between Democratic and Republican candidates.

It is a political illusion aimed at persuading the citizenry that they are free, that their votes count, and that they actually have some control over the government. The harsh reality is, citizens are prisoners of a Corporate Elite. Election is a sophisticated trick aimed at keeping people divided and fighting over two parties whose priorities, more often than not, are exactly the same. 

It’s no secret that both the parties support endless wars, engage in out-of-control spending, ignore the citizenry’s basic rights, have no respect for the rule of law, are bought and paid for by Big Business, care most about their own power, and have a long record of expanding government and shrinking liberty. Most of all, both parties enjoy an intimate, incestuous history with each other and with the moneyed elite that rule this country.

Candidates volley at each other for the benefit of the cameras; they’re a relatively chummy bunch away from the spotlight. Moreover, despite Congress’ so-called political gridlock, the elected officials seem to have no trouble finding common ground when it’s time to collectively play the game to the mega corporations, lobbyists, defense contractors and other special interest groups to whom they have pledged their true allegiance.

Friday 16 October 2020

Over half of voting public wants Netanyahu to quit politics

According to reports more than half of Israelis of voting age want Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to leave politics.

According to details, when they were asked, do they want Netanyahu to leave politics, 54% said yes, 36% said no, and 10% said they do not know. Among respondents who voted Likud in the last election in March, 28% wanted Netanyahu out of politics, and among those who cast ballots for Yamina, 57% wanted him to go.

The numbers were similar to those who told that they did not trust Netanyahu to handle the coronavirus crisis. As many as 55% said they could not trust him to deal with both the health crisis and the economic crisis.

Asked whether they believed the decision to lock down was made for political reasons, 51% said yes, 34% said no, and 15% said they did not know.

According to the poll, if elections were to be held now, Netanyahu’s Likud would win 28 seats and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina would gain 21. Yesh Atid-Telem would win 17, the joint list 14, and Yisrael Beytenu, Shas and Blue and White nine each. The poll predicted seven seats for United Torah Judaism and six for Meretz.

The poll was taken recently among 1,033 respondents representing a statistical sample of Israel’s adult population and had a margin of error of 3.1%.

Thursday 15 October 2020

Emerging global food crisis

The day World Food Program was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for its fight against hunger, fresh numbers from the US government showed that tighter crop supplies could worsen the food inequality crisis that’s sweeping the globe.

In its hotly watched monthly crop report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said world soybean stockpiles will be smaller than expected, signaled growing competition over global wheat shipments and highlighted dry weather as a threat to crops in parts of South America and Europe.

Taken together, the report indicated that global food prices could keep climbing, making adequate nutrition more expensive as millions are thrown out of work and economic woes deepen.

United Nations also released its gauge of global food prices, which showed costs rose 2.1% in September, mainly driven by grains and vegetable oils. The index is approaching a multi-year peak set in January. The USDA figures show that the increases could continue as China imports more soybeans and wheat, tightening the global balance sheet.

Prices are rising as the world is forecast for a sharp rise in food insecurity because of COVID-19 impact. As many as 132 million more people globally may fall into the grip of hunger this year, including in many places that used to have relative stability.

While global grain and oilseed supplies remain relatively robust, wild weather including a recent severe wind storm in Iowa means harvests are smaller than initially hoped. Average yields for US corn and soybeans are still record large, though there are fewer acres that will be harvested.

Meanwhile, in Russia, top wheat exporting country production increased by 5 million tons to 83 million tons, the second biggest ever, according to the USDA’s report. Wheat output was cut in Argentina, Canada, Ukraine and the United States.

Prices have been surging in Chicago, with investors enticed by a demand driven rally. Soybeans for November delivery climbed as much as 2.8% to US$10.7975 a bushel, the highest for a most-active contract since March 2018. Wheat prices touched a five-year high earlier this week.

The crop outlooks and higher prices come as the World Food Program warned of hunger crisis of inconceivable proportions, unless it and other groups with a similar focus get the financial backing they need to do their work.

Sunday 11 October 2020

United States the biggest war machine

It may not be wrong to say that military bases of the United States are the key pieces of the global war machine, but people don’t hear about these very often. It is estimated 800 US military bases are located around the globe that play an essential role in turning the whole world into a bloody battlefield. These bases are located in more than seventy countries around the world and represent a mighty military presence, yet rarely acknowledged in US political discourse.

The Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Okinawa might occasionally grab a headline thanks to sustained and vigorous anti-base protests, and US military bases in Guam might briefly make news due to public opposition to “Valiant Shield” war exercises that have taken place on the US colony during the pandemic. But, overwhelmingly, foreign bases simply are not discussed.

They are immutable, unremarkable facts, rarely considered even during elections that repeatedly invokes concepts like “democracy” and “endless war” and, thanks to a raging pandemic and climate crisis, raises existential questions about what United States is and should be.

The people living in the countries and US colonies impacted by these bases — the workers who build their plumbing systems, latrines, and labor in the sex trades that often spring up around them, the residents subjected to environmental toxins and war exercises — simply do not exist.

These military bases hold the key to understanding why the United States has consistently been in some state of war or military invasion for nearly every year of its existence as a country.

US military bases around the world, from Diego Garcia to Djibouti, are nuts and bolts in the war machine itself. Military bases provide the logistical, supply, and combat support that has allowed the United States to turn the whole world into its battlefield. They make conflict more likely, and then more wars lead to more military bases, in a vicious cycle of expansion and empire. Put another way, “bases frequently beget wars, which can beget more bases, which can beget more wars, and so on.”

While the idea that the global expansion of military bases corresponds with the rise of US empire may seem obvious, it is both consequence and cause. The way global military positions spread — which are always sold to the public as defensive — are by their very nature, offensive and become their own, self-fulfilling ecosystems of conquest.

Just as the induced demand principle shows, building more lanes on highways actually increases traffic, United States of War makes the argument that military bases themselves incentivize and perpetuate military aggression, coups, and meddling.

The trajectory toward empire started with white settler expansion within the United States. In 1785, the US Army initiated what “would become a century-long continent-wide fort-construction program. These forts were used to launch violent invasions of Native American lands, to protect white settler towns and cities, and to force Native Americans further and further away from the East Coast.

They were also used to expand the fur trade, which, in turn, encouraged other settlers to keep moving west, with some forts functioning in part as trading posts. The famed expedition of Lewis and Clark was a military mission to collect geographic data that would be used for more “fort construction, natural resource exploitation and westward colonization by settlers.”

While the United States was expanding its frontier, its Navy was also pursuing fort construction overseas, from North Africa’s Barbary Coast to Chile, often for the purpose of securing trade advantages. In the thirty years following the war of 1812 — primarily a war of US expansion — settlers pushed westward within the United States, building infrastructure as they went: roads, trails, and more than sixty major forts west of the Mississippi River by the 1850s. After the United States went to war with Mexico, army bases were constructed in the annexed territory. Forts in Wyoming protected wagon trails, allowing settlers to expand through the western United States.

The violent conquest and massacre of Native Americans did not stop during the Civil War, and it escalated from 1865 to 1898, when the US Army fought no fewer than 943 distinct engagements against Native peoples, ranging from skirmishes to full-scale battles in twelve separate campaigns. White supremacist policies were particularly pronounced in California, but took place across the West. After 1876, when President Ulysses S. Grant turned over Native Americans to the War Department, Fort Leavenworth was transformed into a prisoner of war camp for the Nimi’ipuu tribe.

Over almost 115 consecutive years of US wars against indigenous nations, US military forts played a consistent role in protecting white settler pillaging and conquest.

The War of 1898 was the start of a new form of overseas empire which saw the country expanded across the continent with the help of US Army forts and near-continuous war. In some cases, it’s possible to draw a direct line between expansion within the United States and conquest abroad.

US Army waged brutal battles against the Kiowa, Comanche, Sioux, Nez Perce, and Apache tribes, then ordered cavalry to massacre as many as three hundred Lakota Sioux in 1890, and then violently put down the Pullman, Illinois railroad workers strike in 1894.

A bloody counterinsurgency war in the Philippines was aimed at defeating its independence movement. Similar continuity between domestic and global repression can be found today as counterinsurgency tactics and military weapons and equipment are used by US police departments.

Organized labor, immigrants, recently freed slaves and indigenous peoples at home and abroad were all subdued by the same military and police forces making way for white settlement and capital expansion.

After seizing Spanish colonies during the 1898 war, the US began to pursue a new form of imperialism that was less dependent on the creation of new formal colonies and more dependent on informal, less overtly violent — but violent nonetheless — political and economic tools backed by military might, including bases abroad. The US built up the military presence in the Philippines to seventy thousand troops, using these forces to help put down China’s Boxer rebellion, and used its military might to intervene ruthlessly in Panama.

World War II saw the dramatic expansion of military bases, an era commencing in 1940, when President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed a deal with Prime Minister Winston Churchill to trade naval destroyers for ninety-nine-year leases in eight British colonies, all located in the Western Hemisphere. In the immediate aftermath of the war, the US temporarily shrank military personnel spending, and returned roughly half its foreign bases.

Yet the basic global infrastructure of bases remained entrenched and a permanent war system was established. During the post–World War II era of decolonization, the US used its military base network and economic influence, buttressed by new institutions like the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, to protect its preeminence.

During the Cold War, overseas base expansion became central to the goals of containment and forward positioning, premised on the idea that global bases allow quick response to threats and rapid interventions and deployments in crises. While giving the illusion of increased safety, these bases actually made foreign wars more likely because they made it easier to wage such wars. In turn, conflict increased construction of US bases.

The Korean War, which killed between three and four million people, prompted a 40 percent increase in the number of US bases abroad, and increasing concern about maintaining bases in the Pacific Ocean. Bases also spread across Latin America, Europe, and the Middle East.

CIA stations expanded alongside military bases, and clandestine meddling and supporting coups became a preferred tool of US Empire. When the US waged brutal war in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, it was assisted by hundreds of bases in Japan, Okinawa, the Philippines, and Guam.

The fate of the roughly one thousand Chagossians (descendants of Indian indentured workers and enslaved Africans) from Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean, spotlights the remarkable cruelty the US during this period of strategic island approach, whereby the US established control over small, colonial islands.

After making a secret agreement with Britain in 1966 to purchase basing rights, the US and UK governments expelled its residents between 1967 to 1973, leaving them trapped on Mauritius and Seychelles, without jobs or homes, many of their possessions lost to them forever.

During some phases of the expulsion, residents were forced onto cargo ships, their dogs killed. By 1973, the US was using this base to support Israel in its 1973 war with Arab nations. To this day,” Vine notes, Chagossians and many others among the displaced are struggling to return home, to win some justice and recompense for what they have suffered.”

The United States used bases from Diego Garcia to Oman to invade Afghanistan in 2001 and, once there, established more bases, and took over former Soviet ones. Likewise, bases from Kuwait to Jordan to Bahrain to Diego Garcia were critical for the 2003 invasion of Iraq, where the US immediately began building bases and installations post-invasion.

While the Bush-Cheney administration closed some bases in Europe, overall spending on bases reached record highs during their time in office. The war with ISIS has seen troops return to Iraq, and the acquisition of bases, even after the Iraqi parliament in 2011 rejected a deal to keep fifty-eight bases in the country.

Since September 11, 2001, the US has also expanded its presence in Africa, building “lily pads” across the continent — smaller profile, somewhat secretive installations, suggesting a frog jumping from lily pad to lily pad toward its prey. US bases have been central to waging the 2011 NATO war in Libya, drone strikes in Yemen, military intervention in Somalia and Cameroon. The military has been conducting a variety of operations regularly in at least 49 African countries.

Meanwhile, base spending has played a key role in the steady uptick of overall military spending. In addition to the direct harm they do through enabling war, bases are associated with incredible fraud and waste, and base contractors renowned for their significant political contributions. This political force, and self-contained logic of sustenance and expansion, is the key to understanding how the Military Industrial Complex can be like Frankenstein’s monster, taking on a life of its own thanks to the spending it commands.

The War on Terror ethos, in which the whole world is considered a US battlefield and the US grants itself broad latitude to wage preemptive war, has come to define US foreign policy. George W. Bush talked about the importance of having a military ready to strike at a moment’s notice in any dark corner of the world to the Middle East, Africa, and Muslim areas of Asia.

Today, the war on ISIS — responsible for significant civilian deaths — continues, so does brinkmanship with Iran, hedging against China, brutal war in Afghanistan, and US support for the war on Yemen, which has unleashed a profound humanitarian crisis.

Saturday 10 October 2020

Iran Afghanistan discuss completion of Khaf-Herat railway

Reportedly, Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister, Mohammad Eslami and his Afghan counterpart Mohammad Yama Shams discussed the details of Khaf-Herat railway project.

In the meeting, held through video conference, the officials discussed several issues including the inauguration of the project, the financial issues, insurance services, manpower training, freight and passenger transportation, customs, technical and security issues, etc.

Speaking in the meeting, Eslami stressed the need to pay attention to the details and various aspects of the contracts for the operation of the Khaf-Herat railway, and said: "High goals can be established for this railway line."

“The work is not done with the construction and operation of this railway line…. it is the starting point and the cornerstone for the development of strategic relations between the two friendly and neighboring nations,” Eslami said.

Khaf-Herat railway which is part of the Iran-Afghanistan rail corridor connects Iran’s eastern city of Khaf to Afghanistan’s western city of Ghoryan.

The construction of the 193-kilomeres-long railway, which is underway in four parts taht began in 2007.  

In a meeting with Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammad Haneef Atmar in Tehran on June 22, Iranian Energy Minister Reza Ardakanian said that the third section of Khaf-Herat railway project which connects the rail networks of Iran and Afghanistan will come on stream in the third quarter of the current Iranian calendar year.

In early July, Iranian and Afghan officials held a committee meeting to investigate the ways to complete Khaf-Herat railway.

Afghan official with Herat Governor's Office Jilani Farhad informed that the joint committee was set up following the emphasis of the Afghan president to accelerate construction and completion of the project considering its significance to improve transit between Iran and Afghanistan.

Two parts of the railway (77 km), which is located in Iran, has been completed a long time ago but the two other parts (116 km), on the Afghan soil, are yet to be worked out.

Wednesday 7 October 2020

Biden and Trump are two sides of the same coin

While Donald Trump and Joe Biden bitterly criticize each other’s Iran policy, it may not be wrong to say there are no differences in their policies. They pursue the same goal, but their tactics are different. Regardless of who wins election, the US may change its policy towards Iran after the November election.

Trump has said repeatedly that if he loses the November presidential election, Iran and China would “own America.” Trump reiterated that Iran, along with countries, prefers Biden victory over him.

However, Iran has made it clear many times that it does not attach importance to the victory of a certain candidate in the US election. In fact, Iranian officials have stated that it does not matter for them who will win the November election.

Some analysts and commentators have claimed that Iran prefers the election of Biden because he would reenter the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and other world powers if he is elected. These analysts argue that Biden’s election means, Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran would come to an end.

The US intelligence community also strengthened the narrative of Iran preferring a Biden victory. In a statement, William Evanina, the chief of the National Counter-Intelligence and Security Center, alleged that Iran seeks to undermine President Trump. 

“We assess that Iran seeks to undermine US democratic institutions and to divide the country in advance of the 2020 elections by spreading disinformation,” Evanina said.

Tehran’s motivation to conduct such activities is driven by a perception that President Trump’s reelection would result in a continuation of US pressure on Iran in an effort to foment regime change.

“Democrats are not better than the Republicans. The only difference is that President Obama worked quietly, while Trump works vociferously. These sanctions have been imposed by the Democrats especially under Obama, said Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to the Leader of the Islamic Revolution on international affairs.
 
The regime change policy is nothing new in the US foreign policy. The US has pursued this policy against many countries. It launched military campaigns to overthrow the regimes of Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. In addition to overt military campaigns, the US has also launched covert operations to topple political systems in Iran, Venezuela, and Syria. The government of Mohammad Mosaddeq, the first democratically-elected prime minister of Iran was toppled in 1953 in a CIA and MI6 orchestrated coup.
 
During and after the revolution, the US sought to topple the newly established Islamic Republic. The policy of regime change in Iran once again gained steam in Washington’s foreign policy circles after it became clear that the US has forever lost its grip on Iran.

The US imposed sanctions, which still remain in place. Trump has increased the sanctions pressure on Iran to an unprecedented level, a move widely seen as a way to overthrow the government of Iran through fomenting social unrest across the country.