On Friday, the
last day of the week ended 6th July 2018, the accountability court announced
its verdict imposing severe punishments and hefty fines on Nawaz Sharif
(elected prime minister of Pakistan for the third time) and his family members.
The decision is likely to severely impact general elections scheduled for 25th
July 2018. There is a saying that history repeats itself. I am obliged to offer
readers one of my articles written as back as April 2015. Its title was
“Pakistan Democracy on the Rough Terrain”. To read details please click http://shkazmipk.com/democracy-in-pakistan/
Saturday 7 July 2018
Sunday 6 May 2018
Talk about re-imposition of sanctions on Iran an attempt to create storm in a teacup
Lately, the western media, controlled and run by
Zionists, has been talking about re-imposition of economic sanctions on Iran,
as 12th May is approaching. The move has been initiated by the US
president and many ‘me too’ are trying to please him. The crusade is led by
Israeli prime minister, who is licking wounds caused to Israel in Lebanon by Hezbollah.
The US is also adamant at taking revenge of its defeat in Syria, where it also faced
Hezbollah. The west is never tired of accusing Hezbollah being supported by
Iran but it is in no way part of Islamic Revolutionary Grads of Iran.
The US commentators have very cunningly convinced OPEC
led by Saudi Arabia to curtail crude oil output which has resulted in 1)
substantial increase in crude oil price and 2) significant hike in the output by
the US and Russia. At present, Saudi Arabia has slipped to third position in
terms of daily oil output. The US has also emerged as one of the major exporter
of crude oil. Therefore, Iran with a daily export of 2.6 million barrel has
become ‘of no consequence’. Even if export of oil from Iran is stopped completely
completely, it would be compensated by other producers very quickly.
As a daily ritual, I have to write a few lines on
commodities market and factors driving their prices. The most bizarre part is
writing about the factors driving crude oil prices. The usual jargons used are increase/decrease
in rig count in the US, movement in US stock piles, turmoil in Venezuela and MENA
(countries including Iraq, Libya, Nigeria). Little reference is made to
investment by hedge funds.
I still remember once taking part in a live panel
discussion on factors driving crude oil prices (more than ten years ago) I had
said, “The price of crude oil may be driven by any factor, but certainly not by
demand and supply”. I could see the
signs of disgust on the face of moderator. After the show was over he even went
to the extent of saying, “Mr. Kazmi, today you said something which sounded
totally absurd and I could have responded. However, I kept quiet and gave you
benefit of doubt.”
Moral of the story is developed economies, through hedge
funds make millions of dollars through movement in crude oil prices. To achieve
their target they often breach agreements. Super powers are notorious for breaching
the agreements to achieve their ulterior motives. Therefore, re-imposition of
sanction on Iran will not be a surprise but an example of yet another blatant
violation. However, they must not forget that even stopping oil export from
Iran completely will neither make an immediate difference for Iran nor sky
rocket the oil prices.
Wednesday 28 March 2018
Making Pakistan hub of Islamic Finance by 2025
On the inaugural day of conference Dr. Miftah Ismail Adviser
to the Prime Minister on Finance and Economic Affairs said the Ministry of
Finance would soon set up a separate division for the promotion of Islamic
banking in Pakistan. He was the Chief Guest at a two-day World Islamic Finance
Forum (WIFF-2018). The international forum was organized by Institute of
Business Administration’s Centre for Excellence in Islamic Finance IBA-CIEF in collaboration
with key partners. The theme was “Expanding the Footprint of Islamic Finance:
Innovation, Fintech and Regulations.”
In his visionary note, Shaikh Muhammad Taqi Usmani Chairman,
Shariah Board of Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial
Institutions (AAOIFI) said the people of Pakistan origin were holding key
positions in Islamic banking industry around the world, making contribution in
developing regulatory framework and above all developing products that would
meet the emerging needs of trade and industry. He urged the government to take
concrete steps for making the economy Riba (interest) free. He also pointed out
that Islamic financial institutions have ample liquidity and the government
should work for creating new avenues for its deployment in remunerative options.
He suggested that the ruling party should also include in its election
manifesto that Riba would be eradicated totally from economy at the earliest.
Chairman AAOIFI Board of Trustees, Bahrain Shaikh Ebrahim Bin
Khalifa Al Khalifa said it was heartening to note that Pakistan was striving to
become another hub of Islamic finance. The country has all the basic
ingredients — a population of 200 million predominantly Muslims, a robust
banking and finance sector, vibrant agriculture, industrial and services
sectors.
On the occasion were present the top officials of the apex
regulators – State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and Securities & Exchange
Commission of Pakistan, Deputy Governors of the central bank, Jameel Ahmad and
Shamsul Hasan talked about the central bank’s initiatives for the to promote
Islamic banking in the country. The progress made over the last decade has been
encouraging that has facilitated in achieving the target. They were also of the
view that making Pakistan hub of Islamic finance would not be difficult.
Irfan Siddiqui, President Meezan Bank requested the federal
government to set a target to acquire at least 25 per cent of the local funding
through Islamic banking as Islamic financial institutions have ample liquidity
and limited avenues for investment.
In his key note address, Dr. Ishrat Husain, Chairman,
IBA-CIEF talked about the progress made by Islamic banking in Pakistan. He was
of the view that the progress made during last one decade was enormous but new
products need to be introduced to provide fresh impetus for growth.
IBA-CEIF Director, Ahmed Ali Siddiqui, welcoming the
delegates, said the Centre had emerged as a regional platform for excellence in
Islamic finance. He said focus areas of CEIF included development of Islamic
finance professionals and new human resources talent pool through industry
linkages and international collaborations.
Two of the closed-door meetings deserve special mention,
though details discussed were not made public. In the first session players and
regulators discussed details that could help in making capital market and
mutual funds Shariah compliant. The issue of financial inclusion and outreach
were the two important themes to be discussed at length. The second session was
between Sharaih scholars and regulators for evolving regulatory frame work that
can help in developing products to meet the needs of different income strata
and those having different risk appetite.
Yet another initiative was presentation of research papers
discussing contemporary issues. One of the sessions deserves a specific mention
where lending to farmers was discussed. At present bulk of the loans are
extended to farmers against passbook or the landownership document. This
process mostly benefits the feudal lords. In this discussion the issue of
warehouse receipt financing was also debated. However, it was evident that
unless modern warehouses and collateral management companies are established
warehouse receipt financing may not be possible. Authors of selected papers
were awarded cash prizes.
The takeaways of the concluding remarks of Dr. Ishrat Husain
were: 1) creation of Shariah Board at Ministry of Finance, 2) borrowing for
infrastructure development projects through flotation of Rupee and Dollar
denominated Sukuks, 3) focus on the development of Fintechs for extending
outreach of banks and ensure financial inclusion and 4) development of
alternative delivery channels.
Saturday 24 March 2018
Energy Crisis in Pakistan: Fact or Fiction
If one looks at the history of power sector in Pakistan, a
few points are clear. These include: 1) a myth that the country has been
persistently suffering due to the shortage of energy products, 2) the successive
power policies have been have been introduced to serve the interest of local
and overseas investors, 3) blatant theft of electricity and gas has been going
on with the connivance of employees of utility companies, 4) regulatory
authorities have failed in protecting the interest of consumers and remained
subservient to the incumbent governments.
Energy shortage
Pakistan is blessed with an enormous potential of hydel
power generation. According to the experts Mighty River Indus along has the
potential to generate more than 40,000MW electricity per annum. Another
10,000MW electricity per annum can be generated from smaller hydel plants (run
of the river type facilities which does not require construction of
dams/reservoirs. In addition to that 50,000MW electricity can be produced
annually from Thar coal. However, at present total hydel generation is around
8,000MW, which goes down when water level drops in dams. Thermal power plants
(mostly owned and operated by the private) have the lion’s share in the total
generation. The share of coal and nuclear power plants in the total electricity
generated has remained minuscule. Though, a lot is being talked about changing
the energy mix and curtailing use of gas for power generation, a little success
has been achieved.
Serving vested Interest
Major hydel power generation facilities, i.e. Warsak,
Mangla, Tarbella and Ghazi Brotha are located in the northen parts of the
country and cater to the needs to KPK and upper Punjab. Karachi is hub of
trading and industrial hub and it is totally dependent on thermal power
generation. The city has 10% of the total population of the country but gets
nothing from low cost electricity generated from hydel power plants. To be
precise, K-Electric supplies electricity to some parts of Sindh and
Baluchistan. If transmission of hydel electricity to Karachi is difficult or
uneconomical, quota allocation of gas to K-electric should be doubled. Karachi
is surviving on self generated electricity, the city has a latent demand of
5,000MW, whereas K-Electric is capable of meeting only half of this demand. One
can still recall that in the early nineties E-Electric used to export
electricity to Punjab. HUBCO was constructed to primarily meet Karachi’s
demand, but it was ‘hijacked’ by WAPDA for meeting Punjab’s demand.
Blatant Theft
Blatant theft of electricity and gas been been going on for
ages with the connivance of utilities. On top of all some of the parts of
Pakistan are provided free of cost electricity. One may recall that at one time
the average T&D losses of electric utilities were as high as 40%. Lately,
gas UFG, which mostly comprise of theft hover a little less than 10%. On top of
this, utility companies carry the load of billions of rupees of receivables,
the probability of recovery is very low. According to some analysts, if
K-Elecric pays off its outstanding dues, SSGC will be able to pay off almost
all the payable amount to E&P companies. Containing theft or recovering
outstanding dues does not require any rocket science, but a firm commitment.
However, utilities fail completely helpless because of the pressure of
political and linguistic groups. It is also necessary to put on record that
utilities don’t provide connections, taking refuge behind non-availability of
electricity/gas, but are prompt in providing ‘temporary connections, which are
often without meters. Analysts term this ‘offical kunda’.
Regulatory Authorities
The Government of Pakistan (GoP) initiated the process of
liberalization, deregulation and privatization. Under this policy, the private
sector was encouraged to establish industries, which remained the exclusive
domain of the state for decades and it was also offered the stake in state
owned enterprises along with management control. Prior to that the World Bank has
refused to lend more money to WAPDA and the shift in policy gave birth to HUBCO
and other IPPs.
IMF Recipe
Many analysts have the consensus that the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) is the lender of last resort, but its recipes are not aimed
at enabling any country to ‘stand on its own feet.’ Often the country is
trapped in a vicious cycle of borrowing. However, the advantage is that if the
country succeeds in developing its own home grown plan and meeting the
condition imposed by the IMF, it may overcome the balance of payment
crisis.
Pakistan has a long history of remaining under the IMF
support program. In one of the latest country report, the Fund has once again
highlighted the need to introduce structural reforms for the power sector.
These weaknesses identified are: 1) the persistence of circular debt, 2) DISCOs
still operating under the state control, 3) high T&D losses, 4) failure to
follow corporate governance and 5) lack of the mechanism for passing on input
cost adjustments to end consumers.
Emphasizing US$55 billion in planned investments as a part
of CPEC, the Fund anticipates improved economic activity made up of 19 Chinese
sponsored power sector investments (US$17.7 billion) and non-CPEC energy
projects (US$25.4 billion). Mode of financing for energy projects has been
bifurcated into: 1) direct borrowing and investment from Chinese financial
institutions, and 2) financing of projects by private domestic sponsors as well
as government backed borrowing from multilateral lenders.
A detailed analysis of the power sector shows: 1) the
country has enormous resources to produce low cost electricity, 2) if pilferage
is contained cash flow of DISCOs will improve and 3) circular debt issue will
be resolved. Appropriately managed conventional sources of power generation can
help in meeting the electricity demand and there may not be an urgent need to
invest in alternative sources of power generation.
Saturday 4 November 2017
Investment opportunities in Pakistan
It is an undeniable fact that Pakistan suffers from two
contentious problems: 1) low savings and 2) limited opportunities for
investment. All the successive governments have been making efforts to lure
foreign investors. However, they fail to understand that if the local investors
are shy no foreign investor would be keen in investing in Pakistan. The problem
is further aggravated because per capita income is low and there is hardly any
incentive for saving. Those who have some money want to become rich overnight
but mostly fall in the trap of cheaters and ultimately loose whatever amounts
they have. The successive governments have not been doing anything more than
lip service and regulators can be termed ‘sleeping watch dogs’. If one looks at
the history of financial scams taking place in Pakistan, only the regulators
could be held responsible for those.
Lately, some of the cheats ripped off people and the
event was termed ‘Modaraba Scam’. Interestingly media flashed headlines, which
gave an impression as if the Modarabas listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) were
involved in the scam. In fact a few clerics belonging to KPK were the master
minds, who cheated the innocent people. The amount involved is estimated from
Rs6 billion to Rs45 billion. The most regrettable point is that the regulators
failed in identifying the crisis, while it was brewing. According to a
financial analyst, “State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) considered it an issue which
pertained to Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) and the high
ups at the Commission had an opposite view”. Another analyst said, “The quantum
of money involved is still not known because some of those having given the money
to the cheaters preferred to remain silent and also didn’t lodge any claim
because they couldn’t provide evidence of source of fund”.
As stated above there is little incentive for saving in
the country, not only that the opportunities are limited, the investors are
penalized by the government in one way or the other for making investment. To
begin with, people having other sources of income have to pay tax, often at a
fabulous rate, but the income of feudal lords is tax exempt because it is
termed income from agriculture. It has been highlighted by experts repeatedly
that that now business tycoons have also learnt the trick of clubbing income
from other sources into income from agriculture.
It would not be out of context to cite two example, rate
of tax applicable on the income of listed companies and tax charged on dividend
income. The number of listed companies at Pakistan Stock Exchange (formerly
Karachi Stock Exchange) is on constant decline because of merger and
acquisitions and voluntary delisting. At an average the listed companies pay
above 30% tax on their income and when they distribute dividend, on that income
tax/withholding tax is charged. The rationale put forward is that listed
company is a legal entity and shareholders are different, therefore both have
to pay tax on their income. The propagators of this philosophy tend to forget
that listed companies also pay taxes on import of machinery and raw material,
GST on finished goods and effectively act as tax collection agents for the
government. Therefore, not more than 5% tax should be charged on the income of
listed companies. On top of all these listed companies are the providers of
employment and also the earners of much needed foreign exchange for the
country.
Investment in listed companies is still considered risky
by the small investors, particularly after the global financial crisis of 2008.
Unlike developed countries, Pakistan didn’t suffer from ‘sub-prime loans issue’.
However, imposition of floor for a long time, did not allow the small
shareholders to take an exit. On top of all shares kept by investors in
subaccounts were sold by some of the brokerage houses that created the real
havoc. This disheartened many investors of stock market, who pulled out their
investment from capital market and invested it real estate, foreign exchange
and precious metals.
Around the world mutual funds are considered a safe haven
for the small investors. The logic is simple that asset management companies
have substantial investments in various types of funds and that any decline in
the income of on particular company does not affect the overall income of a
particular type of fund and in turn the income of the unit holders. Along with
this there is constant sale and redemption by the unit holders that save does
not causes spikes in value of the asset under management (AUM). However, in
various funds bulk of the investment is by corporates and large net worth
investors that results in sudden rise and fall in the value of AUM.
The big investors also invest in real estate, foreign
exchange, precious metals and energy products. One of the reasons for investing
in these products is the lack of documentation, which allows the investors to
evade tax payment. It is estimated that the documented economy constitutes only
one-third of county’s total economy and size of undocumented economy is always
increasing due to exemptions and evasions. There is always an incentive for the
evasion because the incumbent governments have been offering amnesty schemes
with regular intervals. It is also on record that billions of rupees are being
sent out of Pakistan in the form of US dollars every year. According to certain
estimates, funds kept by Pakistanis outside the country range from US$50
billion to US$500 billion. Bulk of this amount has been invested in real
estate, international trading and manufacturing facilities. Some of the
favorite destinations are India, UAE, Malaysia and Singapore. If the government
of Pakistan is serious in accelerating GDP growth rate, it has to ensure that
each penny saved is invested in Pakistan.
This article was originally published in Pakistan & Gulf economist
Thursday 26 October 2017
India opposing CPEC
Indian Ocean is the oldest and most efficient trade
corridor. On its one side are hydrocarbon rich countries and on the other side
are energy deficient but major energy consuming and industrially developed
countries. The ships carrying goods destined for Europe using Suez Canal also
passes through Indian Ocean. In order to provide security to their maritime
trade navies of different countries are also present in the Indian Ocean. In
the recent past pirates having safe sanctuaries in Somalia have created serious
havoc, which prompted many countries to further enhance their presence in the
Indian Ocean, which also included India.
India not only claims that it is the strongest regional
super power, but also openly denounces any world super power that refuses to
accept its hegemony in the Indian Ocean. India is fully cognizant of the fact that
bulk of the international trade, energy products, consumable and capital goods
pass through Indian Ocean. It is also a fact that India and China have never
enjoyed cordial relationships; in fact they are involved in boarder disputes
for decades. In such a scenario, China has no option but to protect its
maritime trade, particularly movement of energy products. The US Navy is also
active in Indian Ocean and it has been constantly increasing its presence around
Striate of Hurmaz and in the Malacca Striate. In South China Sea dispute, Japan
and Korea are fully supported by the US, which also wishes to contain Chinese
growth.
India has emerged as the biggest opponent of Chinese
program, which is commonly known as ‘String of Pearls’. Under this program
China is building sea ports in various countries and out of these Gwadar is
one. While China says that all these ports fall under the category of ‘Listening
Ports’ that helps in the movement of merchant ships. However, India has been
refuting Chinese claim and call these ‘Chinese Naval Bases’ and term these a serious
threat to its sovereignty.
India is actively operating in Afghanistan, under the
disguise of developmental work. Afghanistan is a land locked country and bulk
of its transit goods having been passing through Pakistan for ages. India often
complains that its Afghan destined goods are not allowed to pass through Pakistan
conveniently. In this backdrop India has invested huge amounts in constructing
Chabahar port in Iran and linking it to the Central Asian Countries via
Afghanistan by road and rail. While the Indian endeavor may succeed in offering
an alternative route, the undeniable fact is that Pakistan offers the shortest
and the most efficient passage to Afghanistan. This fact became most obvious
when Pakistan stopped movement of NATO supplies though land route.
Pakistan decided to handover management control of Gwadar
Port to China and also entered into an agreement for the construction of China Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC). The corridor will link Gwadar with Kashgar and enable
China to contain transit time of its imports/exports. The goods will move
on-land rather than sea. Under CPEC, Gwadar port will be linked to china by
construction of allied infrastructure - road and railway track. India is
opposing construction of CPEC section passing through newly constituted
Gilgit-Baltistan Province of Pakistan.
With the commencement of full scale activities at Gwadar
Port and construction of road and rail networks, Baluchistan is likely to reap
enormous benefits. Over the years India has been supporting rebel groups and
supplying them funds and arms. A banned outfit Jundullah had enjoyed external
support but the group was disintegrated after the hanging of its chief in Iran.
Lately, ‘Free Baluchistan’ banners were seen in Switzerland and analysts
suspect that it is the work of those Baloch groups who have obtained political
asylum there.
One can still recall that India announced to disassociate
itself from Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) project due to security reasons as the
gas pipeline has to pass through troubled Baluchistan province. Later on, it
dawned that another gas pipeline project, Turkmenistan-
Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) was being sponsored by the opponents of
IPI. A point beyond comprehension was
that India decided to quit IPI because of security issue in Baluchistan, but
joined TAPI that has to pass through war-torn Afghanistan.
A substantial part of road network that will ultimately
become part of the CPEC has already been constructed and now it is being
revamped to offer speedy and safe mode of transportation. It is believed that
CPEC will change the entire landscape. India has the realization that it has
missed the opportunity by strangulating its relationship with China. It also
fears that Chabahar port would never be as efficient and cost effective as
Gwadar. Therefore, it is making last ditched efforts to sabotage Gwadr Port and
CPEC projects. Now it is the responsibility of all the Pakistanis to frustrate
Indian efforts and make Pakistan ‘natural corridor for trade and energy’.
This article was originally published in Pakistan & Gulf
Economist
Sunday 8 October 2017
CPEC Myths and Realities
In Pakistan a lot is being said and talked about China
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While some analysts term it a mega
initiative by Pakistan’s ‘time tested friend’, cynics label it ‘another East
India Company in Making”. Another group says, “British Raj undertook many mega
developmental project in Indian subcontinent but most of these were aimed at
taking the raw materials from one of its bountiful colony to the home town and
sell its finished products to one of the huge markets enjoying substantial
purchasing power, as against this CPEC is aimed at ushering prosperity in the
rural areas of Pakistan”.
China has one of the largest population and industrial base. The country is deficient in indigenous production of energy products. To keep the factories running it has to import huge quantities of crude oil and finished products. Bulk of these products comes from Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Carrying these through ships takes long time and the cost is also high. Presence of navies of various super powers, particularly the US Navy, poses serious security risks for the ship carrying oil to China. Therefore, another route has to be constructed that is short, efficient and cost effective. Taking goods from Gwadar to Kashgar though Pakistan does not pose serious problems because most of the road and rail network is already in place, which can be further improvised at a faster pace and with lesser expenditures.
China has one of the largest population and industrial base. The country is deficient in indigenous production of energy products. To keep the factories running it has to import huge quantities of crude oil and finished products. Bulk of these products comes from Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Carrying these through ships takes long time and the cost is also high. Presence of navies of various super powers, particularly the US Navy, poses serious security risks for the ship carrying oil to China. Therefore, another route has to be constructed that is short, efficient and cost effective. Taking goods from Gwadar to Kashgar though Pakistan does not pose serious problems because most of the road and rail network is already in place, which can be further improvised at a faster pace and with lesser expenditures.
China, the fast growing economic power has embarked upon
‘One Road, One Belt’ program, which consists of economic belt and maritime
road. A closer look at the illustration hardly shows any road or railway track
passing through Pakistan. This implies that Pakistan is not the sole
beneficiary of this grand plan but will reap the benefits to the extent it is
able to use the corridor. At the best it will collect transit fee and the roads
may make any contribution in boosting Pakistan’s GDP. The experts having
futuristic vision say that adding to power generation and developing robust
infrastructure can help in containing electricity outages and post-harvest
losses, which means additional contribution to country’s GDP. However, reaping
benefits will totally depend on conceiving right policies and their
implementation in letter and spirit. The overwhelming perception is that the
Government of Pakistan has not come up with any ‘home grown plan’ to fully
exploit the true potential of CPEC.
It is being said that CPEC envisages investment ranging from
US$46 billion to US$72 billion. However, only scanty details are available
about the projects and component of equity and debt. The overwhelming
perception is that bulk of the money will come as debt and Pakistan may face
serious debt serving constraints. Drawing substantial and sustainable income
from infrastructure projects is a long drawn process. Sri Lanka already faces
such a problem. Therefore, local policy planners have to take swift remedial
steps to avoid a similar situation. It may be true that CPEC may yield enormous
benefits for Pakistan, but it is more important to take into account any
potential fallout and come up with ‘Disaster Recovery Plan’.
One of the basic lessons taught in management sciences is having a recovery plan in case the original plan fails. This is unavoidable because Pakistan faces internal and external treats. Even after seventy years of independence Pakistan is surviving on aid, grants, and loans and on the crutches of multilateral donors, particularly International Monetary Fund (IMF).
One of the basic lessons taught in management sciences is having a recovery plan in case the original plan fails. This is unavoidable because Pakistan faces internal and external treats. Even after seventy years of independence Pakistan is surviving on aid, grants, and loans and on the crutches of multilateral donors, particularly International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The primary obstacle to the CPEC’s full implementation is
security. To address Chinese concerns and ensure the safety of these projects,
Pakistan has created a dedicated CPEC force, but even a force of that size may
not prove substantial. Many of the constituent projects are being constructed
in the areas having sanctuaries of terrorist and anti-state groups. Attacks on
the work force or Chinese engineers could delay or derail the CPEC.
A decades-long insurgency simmers in Baluchistan, where a
number of important CPEC projects are underway. The CPEC also faces domestic
political opposition in Pakistan, with infighting between provinces and the
central government over the allocation of investments. The lack of transparency
surrounding the negotiated deals has heightened concerns and skepticism that
only a select few, if any in Pakistan, will benefit from the investments. In
case Pakistan is unable to provide sufficient security or address the concerns
of domestic opponents, projects will have trouble getting off the ground and
will fail to prompt follow-on investments or deliver commercial success.
On the external front, CPEC face threats from the United States,
India and Afghanistan. Indian Prime Minister has already lodged protest
with China. Washington is likely to join hands with India, having concerns
about the CPEC, as it represents the leading edge of China’s expanding access to,
and likely influence within Eurasia. Any direct intervention by the US or India
could be costly, unwinnable and almost certainly counterproductive to other US
goals in Pakistan and the region.
This article was originally published in Pakistan & Gulf Economist
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