Pakistan Stock Market Fails in Breaching 50,000 mark

At Pakistan Stock Exchange, bullish sentiment resurfaced in the later part of the week ended 5^th May 2017. The rally was driven by upbeat about earning of listed companies and offtake announcements by Cements, Urea & POL products). This elevated the benchmark index by paltry 1.1%WoW to close at 49,851 points, a little shy of 50,000 mark. Bearish sentiments plunged average daily turnover by 26.4%WoW to nearly 264 million shares.

Key news flows during the week were: 1) CPI based inflation for April’17 declining to 4.78%YoY as compared to 4.92%YoY a month ago, 2) Ministry of Finance agreed to release Rs104 billion to settle pending power subsidy claims for the current financial year, 3) SECP announced the criteria for mutual funds’ investment in the listed companies, restricting investments in illiquid and unprofitable stocks and 4) Supreme Court of Pakistan formed the joint investigation team (JIT) comprising of six members from various agencies to investigate aspects of the Panama papers case against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family.

Stock leading the bourse included: NCL, BAFL, EPCL, LUCK, whereas the laggards were: AGTL, PIOC, SNGP and PTC. FIPI data points to foreign investors pulling out US$19.28 million during the week accelerating their exit over last week’s net outflow of US$10.71 million. The month of May remains a critical for markets as 15^th May approaches closer, for the MSCI revision. Additionally, CPEC summit around middle of this month in Beijing is expected to boost investors’ sentiment for Construction and Materials sector. Investors also await the federal and provincial budgetary incentives expected for the final budget before next election. 

OCAC recorded April'17 POL industry sales of 2.22 million tons rising 16%MoM/11%YoY beating the average seasonal uptick, based on strong retail fuels sales growth (MOGAS/HSD sales up 12/11%MoM and 14/5%YoY respectively) and increased generation on furnace oil (FO). From a cumulative perspective 10MFY17 industry sales now stand at their highest recorded mark of 21.04 million tons (up 12%YoY) where retail fuel growth led the charge (MOGAS/HSD sales growth of 17/12%YoY), supported by FO sales growth of 10%YoY. Growth in all three of these segments, which make up 96% of total industry volumes, bodes well for market penetrating OMCs focusing on these segments for growth.

CPPA reported generation numbers for February/March of 2017 where 6.38/7.62TwH were generated. The weighted average cost of generation during the months stood at Rs5.18/6.22/KwH up 31/12%YoY marking a general rise in the cost of generation in the public sector. Cumulative 9MFY17 generation amounts to 76.54TwH rising 5.8%YoY, aided in large part by 5.2%/65.2%YoY increases in FO/Nuclear generation, at a total net dependable capacity of 11,812MW (50% load factor on nameplate generation capacity of 23,623MW). Thermal sources for generation supplied 67% of total units produced where FO/HSD based generation persisted (30.1/1.2%). In a power policy backdrop riddled by long standing, systemic impediments, a one-off payment before summer, is a stop-gap measure at best, kicking the can down the road. Investors agree, as evidenced by the 9.2%CYTD (ex-KEL) decline in the sector's performance, where an investment case for KAPCO on yield remains compelling, while a 'chink' in NEPRA's tariff setting authority may give long term space to push through lucrative tariff for an extension.

Power mix remain steady as generation from renewable, ex-hydel showed a marked rise with Solar/Wind/Bagasse based projects increasing units generated by 310/69/63%YoY, but maintain meager shares of 0.6/1.0/0.8% in the national power mix during 9MFY17. Thermal sources for generation supplied 67% of total units produced as compared to 65% in 9MFY16, where FO/HSD based generation persisted (30.1/1.2% vs. 30.2/1.7% during 9MFY16). RLNG's share in the power mix continued to climb (4.9% as of 9MFY17) leading to decline in the share of units produced from gas, and is expected to continue tracking upwards as public sector RLNG projects near completion. Moreover, RLNG's cost of generation for 9MFY17 averages at Rs7.0/KwH, while March'17 cost of generation stood at Rs7.93/KwH, making RLNG based generation 23.2/49.0% cheaper than FO/HSD sourced units during the month.

Over the period, combined weighted cost of units generated by state-owned power plants inched up by 3%YoY, despite a 12%YoY increase in cost of generated units on FO (Rs8.8/KwH for 9MFY17). Additional allowances for debt repayment, higher repatriation of funds to provinces has also pulled up the cost of generation on Hydel by 21%YoY to Rs0.12/KwH, still the cheapest source of energy in the country. Feb/March'17 weighted average cost of generation stood at Rs5.18/6.22/KwH up 31/12%YoY marking a general rise in the cost of generation by public sector GENCOS.

Prominent power sector developments include: 1) Ministry of finance giving a nod to pay Rs104 billion as part of FY17's provisioned power sector, consumer subsidy, 2) Prime Minister M expressing dissatisfaction over persistent power blackouts, burdened by soaring shortfalls (5000-6500MW) and 3) CCI in its latest meeting approving amendments to NEPRA Act 1997 curtailing powers of the regulator when setting consumer/power tariffs. In a power policy backdrop riddled by long standing, systemic impediments, a one-off payment before summer, is a stop-gap measure at best, kicking the can down the road. Investors agree, as evidenced by the 9.2%CYTD (ex-KEL) decline in the sector's performance, where an investment case for KAPCO on yield (FY17/18F D/Y of 11.9/12.2%) remains compelling, while a 'chink' in NEPRA's tariff setting authority may give long term space to push through lucrative tariffs for an extension.

Pakistan stock market performance in April 2017 and outlook

Pakistan stock market suffered from two contentious issues, political uncertainty and SECP probe of the erring brokers. The market posted 2.2%MoM paltry gains. While Supreme court judgment fell short of disqualifying the prime minister, investigations against certain brokers, dented investors’ confidence.

While AKD Securities termed investors’ participation healthy with daily trading volume for the month averaging at 240 million shares, activity remaining concentrated in mid-tier stocks. The volume leaders emerged: ASL, TRG and EPCL. In terms of price performance at the main board, Automobiles and Parts were clearly ahead gaining 21.8%MoM on above expected financial results coupled with new model launches, while trailing far behind were Oil & Gas, Cements and Textiles.

The triggers included formal MSCI EM inclusion in May'17 and expectations of populist budgetary measures; any further regulatory tightening by SECP continues to hang in the balance. The brokerage house continues to advocate scrips potentially making it to MSCI EM index (OGDC, HBL, UBL, MCB, LUCK, PSO, HUBC, ENGRO and NML) while also favoring Auto names like INDU and PSMC. However, foreigners continued to sell (April'17 net outflow of US$36.3 million) taking CYTD outflows to US$198.7 million. Going into May'17, AKD Securities expects formal MSCI EM inclusion and anticipated populist budgetary measures to catalyze performance. However, further regulatory tightening along with political noise are key concerns.

Intimidating Iran

Ever since Donald Trump has been elected President of United Sates, pressure is mounting on him to re-impose sanctions on Iran. The Arab monarchs have also form a joint force to avert any perceived threat from Iran. Ironically, the Arabs have been brain washed to believe “Iran is a bigger threat as compared to Israel”. I just pulled out one of my articles, written as back as 29^th April 2012 from the archives for the readers. My special thanks to Facebook for keeping this in my memories.

Over the years the United States and Israel have been trying to intimidate Iran and want it to make the first move. They want to put all the blame on Iran to convince the world, as they (Zionists) control media, that Iran was the first to strike and now they have the reasons to attack the country. Both the United States and Israel have been constantly propagating that Iran is a threat for them and for the entire world. Over the years Iran has applied restraint but it is feared that repeated provocations may end Iran’s patience.
The United States really tested Iran’s patience in 2012, before the super power entered into a deal with Iran. It was deployment of F-22, America's most sophisticated stealth jet fighters at a base in the United Arab Emirates that is less than 200 miles from Iran's mainland. However, the US Air Force adamantly denied that presence of jets was a threat to any country. These F-22 fighters were placed in hangars at UAEs' Al Dafra Air Base, just a short hop over the Persian Gulf from Iran's southern border.
Reportedly, spokesperson of US Air Force avoided confirming the exact location of the F-22s, but told these had been deployed at a base in Southwest Asia. He also clarified that the F-22s were simply taking part in a scheduled deployment and were not a threat for Iran. However, he informed that it was a very normal deployment to strengthen military relationships, promote sovereign and regional security, improve combined tactical air operations and enhance interoperability of forces.
The spokesman declined to say what the Raptors' mission was in the region this time around or how many planes had been deployed, citing operational security. However, he said because of the F-22's next-generation capabilities, any number of planes deployed in the region is a significant move.
The F-22 has been officially combat-operational since December 2005 but no plane was used in Iraq, Afghanistan or in the US-led no-fly mission over Libya, may be because the sophisticated jets simply haven't been needed yet. However, when it comes to dealing with Iran, the US and its allied take extra care to avoid any embarrassment.
Lockheed Martin's in-charge for the F-22 program had told that the plane was perfectly suitable for undertaking more sophisticated adversaries and could be used in deep penetration strike missions in well-defended combat zones inside places like North Korea or Iran.
History tells that all the US missions against Iran faced some kind of adversity and F-22 may not be an exception. The new deployment comes in the midst of the Air Forces' continuing battle with a rare but sustained oxygen problem plaguing the F-22. Since 2008, nearly two dozen pilots have reported experiencing "hypoxia-like symptoms" in mid-air. The problem got so bad that the Air Force grounded the planes fo fixing the problem but never could.
Despite the ongoing issues, the US Air Force says the F-22 is ready for war, should it be called. It says "If our nation needs a capability to enter contested air space, to deal with air forces that are trying to deny our forces the ability to maneuver without prejudice on the ground, it will be the F-22 that takes on that mission”.
Often Pakistani’s fail to understand why the Middle Eastern countries are extending support to the United States in a bid to make Iran bow down? Is the inherent dislike of Arabs for Iran is so high that they are ready to join any endeavor to wipe out the country that has withstood sanctions for more than three decades?

Pakistan Stock Exchange posts 29 percent increase in daily traded volume

Having recovered 4.5% in the prior week, benchmark of Pakistan Stock Exchange went back into the red zone during the week ended 28^th April 2017 closing at 49,301. Analysts attribute this fall to new disclosure requirements by SECP, and continued political uncertainty with futures rollover week further aggravating the decline. Average daily traded volumes increased by more than 29%WoW to 359 million shares with volume leaders being EPCL, ASL, ANL, SMBL and TRG. Key news flows during the week included: 1) PSMC unveiling the 1,000cc Celerio (re-branded as the new Cultus) at a ceremony held in Lahore, 2) PPL announcing discovery of 29.2mmscfd gas from its Gambat South block (65% working interest), 3) announcement of Punjab Orange Cab scheme for the unemployed youth by CM Punjab, with expected scheme size of 100,000 units, 4) GoP raising Rs360 billion through auction of short‐term government papers and 5) GoP notifying a relaxation of the moratorium on new gas connections for industrial, commercial and captive power plants directing the gas utilities to implement it with immediate effect. Gainers of the week were AGTL, PSMC, INDU, ASTL and HCAR; while laggards included PPL, EFERT, NCL, NML and CHCC. Foreign participation continued its negative trend with US$10.71 million outflows compared to US$31.97 million in the prior week. With the result season nearing its end, analysts expect the market to remain range-bound amid lack of triggers.

Contrary to February, country's total exports during March'17 rebounded 9.9% MoM/3.4%YoY to US$1.8 billion, where textile exports (60% of total exports) posted marked recovery to clock in at US$1.064 billion up 7%MoM. The upswing in the textile exports in March'17 was primarily driven by 9.9%YoY growth in value added exports to US$775 million, while non‐value added exports declined to US$289 million down 2.5%YoY. On a cumulative basis, 9MFY17 textile exports were still 0.77%YoY lower at US$9.29 billion, largely contributed by 8.5%YoY decline in the low value segment diluting the impact of 2.5%YoY growth in the value added segment. Looking ahead, textile exports are likely to remain under pressure due to: 1) demand side bottlenecks emanating from depressed Chinese demand and slowdown in EU, post Brexit, 2) liquidity crunch faced by textile sector due to delay in tax and rebate refunds amounting to Rs300 billion and 3) continuous upward trend in international and local cotton prices, raising cost of doing business. Having said that, recent appreciation in regional currencies as compared to slight depreciation in the PkR/US$ coupled with Rs180 billion export package, may extend some support to the declining exports, going forward.

Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) posted unconsolidated profit after tax of Rs2.19 billion (EPS: Rs1.72) for1QCY17 as compared to net profit of Rs2.73 billion (EPS: Rs2.14) for 1QCY16, down 20%YoY. Earnings came in slightly above market expectation due to 5.4% higher than expected topline on the back of greater than anticipated offtake growth. Key highlights of 1QCY17 earnings includes:  1) a 4%YoY decrease in topline to Rs11.19 billion reflecting 4%YoY expected slowdown in Urea offtake coupled with low urea prices and 2) improvement in gross margin to 31.5% (including subsidy) during 1QCY17 due to low feed gas prices (down 39%YoY) restricting earning decline. Along with results, the company also announced an interim cash dividend of Rs1.50/share.

Indus Motor Company (INDU) reported robust earnings for the 3QFY17 amounting to Rs4.17 billion (EPS: Rs53.05) higher by 41%YoY, beating out estimates and recording its highest earning quarter ever. Stellar earnings were the outcome of: 1) topline growth of 16%YoY, where the deviation may have occurred from higher CBU sales, 2) improved margins of 19.2%, signifying improved margins for the facelift Revo and Fortuner variants and 3) effective tax rate of 30% 1QFY17. On the flip side, finance costs rose 899%YoY due to the late payment on deliveries and below the line expenses increase tapering the bottom-line. Net profit for 9MFY17 rose to Rs10.24 billion (EPS: Rs130.34) up 16%YoY, with total payouts over the period at Rs80/share. Thus the company has a higher payout ratio that added to the planned CAPEX of Rs3.5 billion for FY17, points to improved liquidity at the OEM.