Pak-US Relationships: Shifting Paradigm

With the caretaker setup being installed, there is an urgent need to revisit Pakistan-US relationships. Analysis of the prevailing situation has becomes all the more important as critics seem to be divided into two distinct but opposite groups, one saying United States need Pakistan's support and second trying to prove that Pakistan needs US support to overcome internal and external threats facing the country.

However, both the groups strongly believe that musty relationship could prove detrimental for both the countries. After the commencement of withdrawal of US-led Nato troops and other hardware from Afghanistan, there is need for safe passage and speedy and cost effective movement.

No one can deny the fact that Pakistan offers the most cost effective route. Therefore, it is suggested that United States must avoid any encounter with the groups that consider it 'Occupier of Afghanistan'. However, the main concern remains fusty relationship between the US and Karzai administrations.

In such a prevailing scenario there are growing fears that some of the Afghan warlords may intensify their attacks on Nato troops and even on Afghan forces. One of the positive points is that both the US and Pakistan governments are trying to improve relationship by removing the irritants.

However, commencement of work on Pakistani portion of Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline has been taken by the US administration an act that makes Pakistan liable for imposition of economic sanctions. Most of the experts are of the consensus that since Pakistan needs to overcome its energy crisis US administration must not oppose this project.

The pipeline offers a reliable and cost effective solution for Pakistan’s looming energy crisis that is adversely affecting its economy and GDP growth rate. Experts are also of the consensus that an economically strong Pakistan can help in maintaining peace and also ushering economic activities in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of Nato forces.

Any adverse decision can intensify anti-US sentiments and imposition of economic sanctions on Pakistan could lead to poor law and order situation that may delay general elections in the country. Any unrest in Pakistan can also cause disruption in the movement of Nato troops and hardware through Pakistan.

Over the years Pakistan has been able to weed out militants and contain their movement across the border and any lapse could prove fatal for the three stakeholders: Nato, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Unfortunately, support of the rebel groups in Arabian Peninsula, North Africa and Syria has proved beyond any doubt that United States has been supplying funds and arms to the groups. Now it is also being said in Pakistan that United States is supporting those militant groups that are busy is creating ethnic divide and sectarian killing.

In fact there is complete consensus that those undertaking sabotage activities and killing people are funded by the external elements and often fingers are pointed at United States, India and Israel.

Some of the quarters have been demanding that United States should provide extra funds to Pakistan for purchasing arsenal to secure its common borders with Afghanistan and India.

As against this, there is a growing realization that improving relationship among Pakistan, Afghanistan and India is more important than accumulating arms. Living constantly under state of war and spending billions of dollars has yielded no result. The time has come to develop better understandings among these countries to ensure more spending on the welfare of people.

Iran Pakistan gas pipeline: Another point of view

I am pleased to place this article published in eurasiareview http://www.eurasiareview.com. Its title is Iran Viewpoint: Washington Angry over Tehran-Islamabad Gas Pipeline Agreement. It has been originally printed in Iran Review, a Tehran-based site that claims to be independent, non-governmental and non-partisan and representing scientific and professional approaches towards Iran’s political, economic, social, religious, and cultural affairs, its foreign policy, and regional and international issues within the framework of analysis and articles.

The final phase of the Iran – Pakistan gas pipeline project, which is to be built on the Pakistani soil, was launched in a ceremony attended by Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Pakistani counterpart, Asif Ali Zardari, on Monday, March 11, 2013. The first section of the pipeline, which runs over 900 kilometers from Iran’s Assaluyeh region to the city of Iranshahr in Sistan and Baluchestan Province had been inaugurated about one and a half years ago. Construction of the second section of the pipeline with the total length of 120 km, which runs from the southeastern Iranian city of Iranshahr to Pakistani border, started last year. The last tranche of the pipeline on the Pakistani soil is expected to be finished in the next two years.

This project is of high significance to both countries. Construction of a pipeline for the export of Iran’s natural gas to its eastern neighbor is of special importance to Islamabad because Pakistan is facing serious energy crunch. The problem was even worse during this winter when some Pakistani cities experienced power cuts which at times lasted up to 18-20 hours a day. In addition, many Pakistani plants, especially those related to the country’s textile industry, had to shut down their operations as a result of sever energy shortage. When looked at from this viewpoint, it is clear that the gas pipeline from Iran will be able to guarantee long-term and secure energy flow to Pakistan.

On the other hand, in view of special conditions of Iran and the sanctions which have been imposed against the Islamic Republic during the last year, the country has been facing difficulties for selling its energy resources. As a result, this pipeline will help Tehran to go around sanctions and will be of serious help to Iran under the existing economic conditions.

In addition to long-term economic benefits which Iran is bent on achieving through presence in global energy markets, the pipeline is of high importance to Iran from a political viewpoint as well. The West, especially the United States, has been putting pressure on many countries to dissuade them from concluding oil and gas contracts with Iran. They had also put tremendous pressures on the governments of India and Pakistan to make them abandon the energy deal with Iran.

It was due to the high importance of the project that Iran was even ready to give concessions to Pakistan to go on with the construction of the gas pipeline. As a result, the Islamic Republic accepted to grant 500 million US dollars as credit in loan to Islamabad to be spent on the construction of pipeline by Pakistan. Before that, the two countries had differences over this issue, which were resolved through the final agreement.

Due to the above facts, the pipeline project can get the two neighboring countries engaged in a very important project which will not only serve the interests of both countries, but will also have an obviously positive impact on bilateral relations between Tehran and Islamabad.

Despite all the above facts, the pipeline had been originally designated as the “Peace Pipeline” because it was supposed to be built through cooperation among Iran, Pakistan and India. However, despite extensive plans and a whole decade of negotiations, the project was finally aborted. So, why the project is currently being implemented in the absence of India?

In reality, India initially agreed to the project, but it finally abandoned it for two major reasons. The first reason was that the Indian officials did not want the pipeline to cross through Pakistan soil. The Indian officials were concerned that in case of possible future tension in relations between Islamabad and New Delhi, Pakistan may use the pipeline as a means of putting pressure on India by cutting off the gas flow.

Therefore, India proposed that the pipeline should be built under the sea. Indian officials noted that the pipeline may run on the ground up to the Iranian border with Pakistan in Gwadar region of Iran’s Chabahar city. Thenceforth, the pipeline was supposed to go under the sea and continue toward the Indian city of Mumbai. Implementing the project in that way would have been both too costly, and needed cutting-edge technology which was not available even to India and could be only provided by a few European countries and the United States.

The second reason which dissuaded India from taking part in the project was that New Delhi would have to pay a transit fee of about 350 million dollars per year to Pakistan for the transit of gas while India was by no means willing to boost the economic strength of its rival neighbor. Therefore, India was very hesitant about taking part in the project due to the aforesaid reasons.

Of course, the United States’ opposition and Washington’s pressure on New Delhi to abandon the project also influenced India’s decision. Although this does not mean that India’s decision has been totally influenced by the US pressure, in reality, the contract signed between the United States and India according to which Washington is supposed to build 13 nuclear power plants for India had greatly increased India’s doubt about being part of the Peace Pipeline project.

The Indian officials reached the conclusion – on the basis of a loss and benefit estimate – to give priority to their national interests and go on with the agreement they had already signed with the United States at the cost of withdrawing from the Peace Pipeline project. This, however, does not mean that the issue of the Peace Pipeline has been forgotten for good and ever in India. The Indians look at it as an open case which may be followed up in the future in order to forge a deal with Iran over its natural gas resources. At any rate, it should not be forgotten that as a result of very rapid economic development in India, the country’s demand for energy is very high and that demand is sure to skyrocket in the future.

Therefore, I believe that the Indians will first take that concession from the United States and then they will enter into a deal with Iran on the basis of their national interests. In doing so, they will conclude the pipeline contract with Iran in order to extend the Iran – Pakistan pipeline up to India and take advantage of Iran’s natural gas resources.

Of high importance in this regard is the close rivalry between India and China. It is noteworthy that China has made hefty investment in Gwadar region. Therefore, in case of a good opportunity and if a suitable price is offered for gas and the project’s cost seems feasible, China might be willing for the pipeline to further travel to Tibet by crossing Karakoram Mountains.

This will be a problem for India in the long run as its rival will be able to take advantage of the pipeline. This is especially true as China’s need to energy continues to soar in coming years. Therefore, India is sure to strike a deal with Iran in the long run over the latter country’s gas resources. In the short term, however, India will stay away from the project as long as the United States has not built the aforesaid nuclear power plants for India.

US can’t afford to antagonize Pakistan

Over the years Pakistan has been fighting proxy US war in Afghanistan, not because of any love for Afghans or even to please the super power. It has been dragged into it and one could sum up the negotiations in before US assault on Afghanistan in one sentence ‘either you are with us or with our enemies’. At that time Pakistan had no option but to bow down as India was ready to join the US crusade. By that time Pakistan was also facing enduring economic sanctions for undertaking ‘nuclear test in 1998 and the probability was that refusal to join the war may also lead to air strikes on Pakistan’s sensitive installations.

On this Monday, Iranian Presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari jointly inaugurated the work on the of 780-km Pakistani segment of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline in the Iranian port city of Chahbahar. The point to be noted is that in this city India is constructing a sea port which is also being linked with Central Asia via Afghanistan on which the United States has never raised any objection. In fact it may be said that India is doing this under the instructions of United States which wants an alternative route, other than through Pakistan.

As I have said earlier United States is once again following .carrot and stock policy’. Victoria Nuland of the US State Department on one hand warns Islamabad that its cooperation with Tehran falls under the Iran Sanctions Act, which means that Pakistan may face a ban on its transactions through American banks and that U.S. military and other aid to Pakistan may be curtailed. She also plays the mantra that the US administration is willing to offer other alternatives, but little has been done to date.

Pakistan is rightly demanding its treatment at par with India, if it has to quite Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, this could be done on only one condition supply of nuclear technology for civilian use. The US has offered this to India in exchange for deserting the gas pipeline project.

This morning I got another inspiration after reading an article in eurasiareview quoting Russian analyst Maxim Minayev of the Civic Society Development Foundation on the matter. He said “I don’t think that Washington will cut its military aid to Islamabad as long as the Afghan campaign continues. The aid is meant to strengthen Pakistan’s defense capacity, particularly against radical Islamist groups. Speaking about Pakistani-US relations, one should bear in mind the potential of those who oversee them in the White House, namely US Secretary of State John Kerry and Vice President Joseph Biden. I think that such players will manage to create additional opportunities for the White House in terms of minimizing the impact of the Pakistani-Iranian pipeline project”.

In his view impositions of sanctions may have the opposite effect. If Washington curtails political and military cooperation with Islamabad, the latter will move to expand ties with China. That’s not what the White House wants. There will be a general elections in Pakistan in May with the ruling Pakistan People’s Party facing a tough challenge from the Muslim League-Nawaz led by ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Both the parties are campaigning on the promises to ease the country’s energy crisis that has reduced its GDP growth rate to around 2.5%. Therefore, any party that wins majority or form coalition government, its first priority will be to resolve looming energy crisis.

In fact President Asif Ali Zardari has won hearts of Pakistanis once again by transferring control of Gwadar port to China and commencing work on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Any effort by the United States to create hurdle in smooth working of these two projects could raise two popular demands: 1) Pakistan should immediately pull itself out of US proxy war and 2) stopping movement of Nato supplies through Pakistan with immediate effect. I hope the US government just can’t afford either one.

I also tend to agree with Russian Orientalist Sergei Druzhilovsky. He believes that the project will go ahead, no matter who wins the election. All the more so that Iran has already built its 900-km segment of the pipeline and hopes to extend it into India. For Pakistan, gas transit means handsome profits. The latter circumstance must have outweighed the alternatives proposed by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Last May, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar made clear Islamabad would not yield to pressure over the pipeline.

Pakistan needs gas to keep its thermal power plants running and industries operating at optimum capacity utilization. Last but not the least Pakistan has a right to demand that the United States should first impose economic sanctions on India for buying oil from Iran, constructing Chahbahar seaport and rail and road network in Iran.

Pakistan makes two bold decisions

Lately, Pakistan has made two very bold but strategic decisions, which will never be liked by regional and global super powers. These are: 1) transferring management of Gwadar port located in Balochistan to China and 2) ground breaking and initiating work on Pakistani side of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.

This ceremony was jointly performed by Pakistani and Iranian presidents. Both presidents were accompanied at the ground-breaking by delegations comprising ministers, top officials as well as representatives of several Arab states.

While Pakistanis have appreciated both the decisions, certain quarters within and outside Pakistan are extremely announced. In fact the opponents just don't want the two neighbors to enjoy amicable and mutually beneficial relationship.

Among the opponents United States is at the top and many of the countries from Arabian Peninsula are also playing the US mantra. Some of them even term ‘Iran a bigger threat as compared to Israel’. These countries are extending full support to the United States to crush Iran by imposing sanctions and continuing ban on export of its oil. Iran is among the top three largest oil producing countries.

One can understand hue and cry of India on the transfer of management control of Gwadar port to China. The reason is simple; India has invested billions of dollars on the construction of Chabahar port, rail and road links up to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

If Gwadar port becomes fully operational importance of Chabahar port would be undermined to a large extent. However, this was known to India when it initiated the project. However, developing an alternate route up to Central Asia via Afghanistan was considered a must and India was fully supported by the United States in this endeavor, at no stage India was even warned of possible sanctions.

Withdrawal of Nato combat soldiers, armaments and other sensitive equipment has started through Pakistan, which is not liked by India because no traffic is being diverted to Chabahar port.

In such a scenario involvement of Indian intelligence agencies in any sabotage activities in Pakistan can't be ruled out. Repeatedly, it has been established that the perpetrators are neither Taliban nor the members of any other militant outfits.

Those who attacked Peshawar airbase were certainly not Taliban and so were those who attacked Mehran Naval base in Karachi. Similarly, burning of houses of Christians was also an act of those who want the international community to show that minorities are not safe in Pakistan.

It is on record that parts of many Muslim countries have been axed to create countries for minorities. These groups are already busy in creating disturbances in Bangladesh.

Pakistan's enemies know well that its economic activities can only be brought to grinding halt by creating unrest and disrupting economic activities.

Completion of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and construction of mega oil refinery at Gwadar will establish Pakistan as energy corridor.

China certainly has economic interest because using Gwadar port will reduced the distance to less than 2000km from existing around 6,000km. This will not only help in saving billions of dollars freight but also ensure security of the products being carried.

Many of the countries, including United States and India don't approve this arrangement. Pakistan will not only get access to energy supplies but will also be able to earn millions of dollars as transit fee.

On top of that Pakistan will also be able to offer efficient and cost effective transit facilities to Afghanistan, which will undermine importance of India.

Over the years and during the war on terror Pakistan has been meeting energy requirement of Nato forces. As such Afghanistan has no oil refinery and it is likely to remain dependent on Pakistan for many years to come.

 Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline ground breaking

Arrangements have been made for the ceremony that would mark the start of work on Pakistani portion of Iranian-Pakistani gas pipeline. This is over 780 kilometer long and ran into snags due to pressure from the United States and difficulties in mobilizing funds. This portion of pipeline is estimated to cost US$1.5 billion and Iran has promised to provide one-third or US$500 million. The portion of pipeline on the Iranian side has almost been completed.

Pakistani leadership is showing determination and made it clear that it would complete the venture. The country seems to be enjoying support from China and Russia on this issue as since last two years Pak-Russia relations have entered in new phase and China is Pakistan’s old dearest friend. Lately, President Zardari has said Pakistan is a sovereign country and has the right to pursue projects in national interest and does not intend to offend anyone

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari will jointly inaugurate the pipeline construction work today (Monday). The ceremony will be held in the Iranian coastal city of Chabahar. Both the presidents will also sign an accord for 400,000 barrel per day capacity oil refinery to be established at Gwadar. Some of heads of states and other dignitaries also expected to attend the ceremony.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Moazzam Ahmad Khan has said,"We are not in a fix, we are very clear about it that the pipeline is in our national interest being an energy deficient country," Khan said, while hoping that the US would show "more understanding" on Pakistan's decision to go ahead with the pipeline. "Yes, we know about their concerns but hope our friends, including the US, will understand our economic compulsions," said Khan.

Brushing aside concerns and pressures of the United States, the spokesman said the whole world should realize that the project was being commissioned purely to meet economic needs of the country and was being executed by two sovereign states.

“The government is initialing this important project in view of the energy requirements. The project will bring economic prosperity, provide better opportunities to the people and help defeat militancy,” he said.

Iranian clergymen protest

against massacres of Shias in Pakistan

On Saturday, a large number of Iranian clerics and seminary teachers and students staged a demonstration in Tehran to condemn the recent bloody massacres of Shias in Pakistan.

Violence against Shia Muslims has escalated in various parts of Pakistan over the past few months. Since the beginning of 2012, hundreds of Shias have been killed in the country.

In the latest terrorist bombing targeting Shias, a suicide bomber attacked Shia Muslims as they were leaving a mosque in the Pakistani city of Karachi on March 3, killing at least 45 people.

The Iranian clerics called on the relevant international organizations to take the measures necessary to end violence against Shia Muslims in Pakistan. 

The demonstrators chanted slogans “Rise up Muslims; Pakistan is in flames,” “Any Muslim’s silence is betrayal of the Quran,” “Down with Israel,” and “Down with the United States.”   

 State Inspectorate Organization Director Mostafa Pourmohammadi delivered a speech at the demonstration in which he said, “Today, in Pakistan and other countries, women and children who are mourning and saying prayers are attacked.

Bombing attacks occur in Iraq and war rages in Syria… They also attack us, carry out assassination, and make threats to force us to back down and stop… (But) today, thanks to the Islamic Republic of Iran, Islam is going up the ladder of growth and progress, and the situation is in our favor.” 

Remember killers has no religion

Pakistanis strongly believe that the ‘imported militants’ who claim to be the true Muslims are the worst enemies of Muslims and the agents of enemies of Islam. They are adamant at killing people to plunge the country into anarchy and ultimately into the civil war. Their sole objective is to kill people.

Over the years they have been killing Shias and Sunnis to create an impression of sectarian rift, which no Pakistani is willing to accept. They have also tried linguistic divide. They collect booty and indulge in kidnapping for ransom only to collect money to buy arms. They also get funds and arms from outside.

This evening I had gone to a family friend’s house for the condolence of his grandfather. 

When I reached home two news reports virtually shattered my nerves, first a blast at a mosque in Peshawar and second burning of houses of Christians in Lahore. News reporters may give these killings and burnings any angle but it is brutal and media must say in loud and clear words that killers are not Muslims and must be punished.

According to initial report in the explosion inside a mosque in Peshawar at least five people have been killed and 29 others injured. The blast took place inside the mosque and the device was planted near the front row of the congregation and people were getting ready to pray when the blast occurred.

Peshawar, the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, has been the site of several terrorist attacks in recent months. The city is surrounded by tribal regions where Al Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban militants are said to have hideouts.

In another incident an enraged mob torched dozens of houses located in a Christian-dominated neighborhood of Lahore. Fearing for their safety, hundreds of Christian families have fled the area.

The mob attacked the houses in Lahore, Punjab’s capital following allegations of blasphemy against a Christian man. It appeared that the man had been falsely accused of blasphemy but the police was forced to register a case to placate the mob, a local police official said.

Speaking to a private television channel, Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah said the accused was in police custody. Sanaullah said all those involved in the arson would be arrested, adding that his government would try to rehabilitate the affected Christian families.

Rana Sanaullah is not alone, president, prime minister, chief ministers, governors and even political leaders issue such stereo type statements, and no culprit is arrested or punished. All are acquitted by honorable courts because of lack of evidence. 

Pakistan’s friends and foes

It is not a cliché but the harsh and cruel reality that Pakistan faces the most difficult time and its very existence is in danger. Many countries face external threats but their people stand united and fight to avert the worst.

Pakistan has everything but its people just can’t be termed a nation. At the best they can be termed ‘clusters of people have vested interest which are often contradictory and opposite.

Thanks to the political leadership that has the sole objective of coming into power no matter how? They want to please the external forces that are notorious for dislodging and installing regimes around the world, external powers have the sole objective of getting control over resources of these countries.

We are never tired of saying that Pakistan is rich in agriculture, minerals and even energy products. It is located on the centuries old trade corridor and it is gateway to many countries, especially energy rich central Asian countries.

It also has more than 1250km long coastline, the largest man-made irrigation system and above all country has a population of more than 200 million that not only offer a huge market but also hardworking manpower. Therefore, be it an aspiring regional power or an established super power, the first attempt is to keep the people subjugated and exploitPakistan’s agricultural and natural resources.

It is often said that the British Raj invested a lot in areas which now comprise of Pakistan, which is true but also has a selfish motive. It took away cotton, wheat and spices from subcontinent and sold its finished products here.

Though, the much talked about colonialism is said to be over but now exists in its worst form. Previously East India Company exploited the area and now there are Fortune-500 companies ripping off the people around the word, and Pakistan is one of them.

If USSR attacked Afghanistan to get access to the warm waters, now super powers are making in road from coastline and trying to reach landlocked energy rich countries. India, under the patronage of United States has built Chabahar port in Iran and also constructing road and rail links up to the Central Asian countries via Afghanistan.

While Pakistan is being threatened of dire consequences it goes ahead with Iran-Pakistan pipelines, United States is encouraging India to invest in Iran, may be it is planning 50 years down the lane when its effort to fragment Pakistan and Iran would be fruitful.

The only regret is that nations try to frustrate desires of external forces but in Pakistan there are groups which encourage or even invite external powers to get their dreams come. East Pakistan would have never become Bangladesh without the conspiracies of politicians, who initiated armed revolt there with the help of India.

Let one point be very clear that Bengalis were not traitors. They took active part in the independence movement but some of the ruthless rulers pushed them to the wall. A similar condition is also being created in Balochistan, which is fully supported by the United States.

The bottomline is instead of cursing the external powers let us find out embedded enemies who are trying to fragment Pakistan. First they divided the nation on the basis of language and are now busy is flaring up sectarian hatred. External forces are using centuries old strategy ‘divide and rule’ and all of us are falling in that trap. These external powers are not friends of Pakistan but adamant at fragmenting the country.

US War Mongering

For more than four decades people of Pakistan have been living in the conditions that can be termed worse than war. In war there is clear differentiation between friend and foe, rules of combat are decided and those violating the rules can face trial for committing war crimes. However, in this part of world various proxy wars are being fought, where funds and arms are being supplied by those who have vested interest. 

If one country is keen in possessing Pakistan’s atomic installations, other is keen in occupying its coastline. If a country is keen in taking over control of mineral resources some others are adamant at fragmenting the country to create ‘landlocked’ countries to keep those permanently dependent on them and keep on fighting proxy wars for them.

Though, many critics are still shy to accept that whatever is happening around the globe is aimed at getting control on resources from fossil oil to other natural resources and from water to right to collect booty on the movement of goods. These were the reason super powers developed colonies around the world and are still doing the same, may be in a slightly refined manner but are as brutal as they were centuries ago. 

They have no regard for human life whatsoever and those who claim to be the champions of human rights are the worst. Pakistan is not alone similar stories are also going on in Arabian Peninsula, Africa, South Asia, Central Asia etc. Pakistan remains in lime light because it is rich in food, fossil oil and minerals and above all ‘the oldest trade corridor’. Movement of energy products has further highlighted its importance.

On one side are oil and gas rich Arabian Peninsula and North Africa and on the other side are energy starved India, China, Bangladesh, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. Super powers have created funds which drive prices of fossil oil and gas. As booty collectors they demand money for the safe and speedy movement of energy products. To maintain their complete control, they install and topple governments in countries that try to defy the rules. Monarchs are often hostage and this could be best understood if one looks at Saudi Arabia.

The country is the biggest producer and exporter of fossil oil. It is the biggest beneficiary of high oil price but it is only one side of the story. Every year it is buying arms worth billions of dollars, last year it had procured arms worth US$35 billion, so whatever it earned from sale of oil went to the pockets arms sellers, United States is the biggest seller of arms in the world.

Saudis are made to believe that Iran is a bigger threat as compared to Israel. This on one hand allows United States to get support to impose more stringent sanction on Iran and on the other hand keep is away from selling its oil. Iran is among the top three largest oil producing country of the world. In this endeavor UAE and Qatar have also joined the US bandwagon.

Many were reluctant to accept that United States supplies funds and arms to rebel groups but it is no longer a secret. Killing of US Ambassador in Benghazi allowed the critics to say that he was not a diplomat but spy, though much earlier the Pandora’s Box was opened in case of Raymond Davis.

It is on record that the United States keep opening one front after another to keep its arsenal factories running. Its immediate buyer are ‘power hungry politicians’ who start with ‘violation of human rights’ then demand change in regime and the dance of death continues around the globe.

Can Zardari defy US pressure?

I am among millions of Pakistanis who still believe that completing Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project will not be an easy task, especially because of the pressure from the United States. Though, the date for ground breaking ceremony has been fixed for 11th March the question is getting louder, can Pakistan defy US pressure?

According to media reports after a wait of almost two decades, the groundbreaking of $7.5 billion Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline has been scheduled for 11th March on the Pak-Iran border by the presidents of the two countries. The ceremony will be held at Gabd zero point on the border from where the Pakistan section of the gas pipeline starts.

The pipeline issue is likely to bring Pakistan-US ties under renewed stress as Washington has been staunchly opposing the project.

“It’s in their best interests to avoid any sanctionable activity, and we think that we provide and are providing … a better way to meet their energy needs in some of the assistance we’re providing,” deputy US State Department Spokesman Patrick Ventrell said on Wednesday.

In Tehran, President Zardari, while rejecting the US pressure, said “We deeply believe in boosting bilateral ties. The international and regional players have tried in vain to prevent expansion of Iran-Pakistan ties but the people have learnt how to act against the enemies of Islam.”

Experts seem clearly divided in two groups, one that believes that project will be completed in time and the other that says a project that has been on cards will remain an unfulfilled dream as the US has already started playing its mantra. The US is now following carrot and stick policy, rather than of dire consequences.

This change in the US strategy may have appeared because of the demand that Pakistan must be treated at par with India. It is on record that United States has agreed to provide India nuclear technology for civilian use as a reward for deserting Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline but not ready to offer the same to Pakistan.

The pressure is also mounting on the incumbent government to pull Pakistan out of proxy US war being fought in Afghanistan. Though, troops pull out has begun, there is overwhelming perception in Pakistan that a large number of combat soldiers along with armaments and other equipment would remain there in post 2014.

A positive point is that religious parties are extending support to President Zardari. Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Chief of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) said Pakistan should not come under US pressure for abandoning the Pak-Iran Gas Pipeline Project as it is a sovereign country and has a sovereign right to sign bilateral agreement with another country.

Despite pressure from the United States and contrary to general expectation President Zardari reached Iran on two-day visit, met Supreme Leader and President of Iran and the two sides reiterate commitment to support each other for the welfare of their people.

The commitments included: 1) to vigorously pursue the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project as well as other major projects between the two countries, 2) to take full advantage of each other`s resources and expertise and 3) to working hand in hand in overcoming the challenges resulting from the emerging situation in the region.

President Zardari proposed a free trade agreement between the two countries, easing of visa restrictions and revisiting the tariff and non-tariff trade barriers. In fact the two countries together with Turkey enjoy the potential to provide fresh impetus to the ECO that would strengthen bonds among the people and promote trade and socio-economic development in the region. Greater cooperation can help in overcoming border security.

Iranian Supreme Leader said US$7.5 billion Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project must go ahead despite US opposition. Accessing safe energy sources should be the first priority Pakistan as Iran is the only country that not only offers safe energy resources but also ready to help Pakistan in overcoming looming energy crisis. These include financial assistance for the construction of gas pipeline and an oil refinery at Gwadar.

While the global and regional players have been using all sorts of tactics to stop the two countries from this project, the people have learnt how to coupe up with the opponents. Iranian President Ahmadinejad said building the gas pipeline between Iran and Pakistan is a great and important event, and it serves the interest of both the nations.

Experts are of the consensus that external powers are trying their best to flare up animosity among Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan only to demolish Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline only to create justification for Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline. Their best efforts are also to stop oil export from Iran to keep crude oil prices high in the global market.

While Pakistanis may appreciate the bold step of President Zadari, one of the opinions is that it is only an eye watch because the present assemblies will be dissolved shortly to ensure timely elections. Therefore, the fate of pipeline will depend on the next elected government. They ask, if the present government was serious, why it didn’t take such a step soon after coming into the power. They fear once the present government is gone the project will also go into the cold storage.

Syrian Rebels Supplied Arms by the US and its allies

From the very beginning apprehensions were expressed that Syrian rebels were getting arms from outside. The critics also said that after demolishing Syrian regime ‑ which enjoys cordial relationship with Iran ‑ the next target will be Pakistan and then Iran would be attached.

Some of the critics attributed this to ‘provoking anti US sentiments’ and alleviating Pakistan’s stature. However, the time has proved that this belief was right and that the rebels are fighting proxy war of United Sates in Syria.

According to a report published in The Washington Post rebel advances in Syria are being fueled by an influx of heavy weaponry by outside powers. The new armaments, including anti-tank weapons and recoilless rifles, have been sent into the province of Daraa to support the groups fighting in the south.

The arms are the first heavy weapons known to have been supplied by outside powers to the rebels battling to topple President Bashar al-Assad against whom the uprising began two years ago. However, the rebels have remained mostly unsuccessful as the encounters spread over two years failed to yield any results.

According to The Washington Post, the officials declined to identify the source of the newly provided weapons, but they noted that those most closely involved in supporting the rebels’ campaign to oust Assad have grown increasingly alarmed at the soaring influence of Islamists over the fragmented rebel movement.

The supporters are believed to the United States and its major European allies, along with Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the two countries most directly involved in supplying the rebels. It is on record that security officials from those nations have formed a security coordination committee that consults regularly on events in Syria.

Although, the Obama administration continues to refuse to directly arm the rebels, the administration has provided intelligence assistance to those who are involved in the supplies, and it also helps vet opposition forces. Though US officials declined to comment on the new armaments but those who had followed uprising in Libya don’t rule out such an arrangement.  

It is believed that the objective of these renewed deliveries is to reverse the unintended effect of an effort last summer to supply small arms and ammunition to rebel forces in the north that was halted after it became clear that radical Islamists were emerging as the chief beneficiaries.

According to The Washington Post report Louay al-Mokdad, the political and media coordinator for the Free Syrian Army, confirmed that the rebels have procured new weapons donated from outside Syria, rather than bought on the black market or seized during the capture of government facilities, the source of the vast majority of the arms that are in the hands of the rebels. But he declined to say who was behind the effort.

Though, strict secrecy is maintained and even those receiving the weapons can’t say with certainty who is supplying these, it is widely assumed that the arms are being provided by Saudi Arabia, with the support of its Arab allies, United States and some European countries.

According to the report, despite full secrecy being maintained arms influx was publicized by Eliot Higgins, a British blogger who uses the name Brown Moses and who tracks rebel activity by watching videos rebel units post on YouTube.

In a series of blogs, he noted the appearance in rebel hands of new weapons that almost certainly could not have been captured from government arsenals. They include M-79 anti-tank weapons and M-60 recoilless rifles dating back to the existence of Yugoslavia in the 1980s that the Syrian government does not possess.

He also noted that most of the recipients of the arms appear to be secular or moderate Islamist units of the Free Syrian Army. In a sign of how organized the effort is, he said, one of the recent videos shows members of the local Fajr al-Islam brigade teaching other rebels how to use some of the new weapons.

The M-79 anti-tank weapons in particular appear to be giving the rebels new confidence to attack government positions and armor, said Jeff White of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who says he also noted the unexpected appearance of the weapons in rebel videos several weeks ago.

The rebels have also been asking for anti-aircraft missiles to counter the government’s use of air power against their strongholds. But there has been no indication that they are acquiring those in significant quantities outside the few they have captured from government bases.

The real aim of the international effort is to provide the rebels with just enough firepower to pressure Assad into accepting a negotiated settlement but not enough to enable them to overthrow him.

Does LeJ aim at initiating civil war in Balochistan?

The Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat (ASWJ) has announced to stage more demonstrations on Sunday and blocking all major national highways linking Quetta to Karachi, Jacobabad, Taftan and Afghanistan.

This announcement came after at least seven persons were injured on Saturday when gunmen opened fire on a rally of the ASWJ at Liaquat Baazar, downtown area of the provincial capital.

Soon after the shooting, leaders and workers of ASWJ reached Civil Hospital Quetta and staged a sit-in to protest against the incident. Reacting to the incident ASWJ activists also blocked Jinnah Road.

According to some analysts selection of Quetta to stage a rally was aimed at challenging the Hazaras that ASWJ not only has the capacity to kill members belonging to the sect but also the courage that they can move around freely. This is evident from a picture placed on the website of Dawn newspaper.

The Hazara community on Saturday demanded that Lashkar-i-Jhangvi (LeJ) Chief Malik Ishaq be put on trial, a day after he was arrested following deadly sectarian attacks in Quetta. Ishaq, who leads the banned militant outfit, was held on Friday after two recent bombings in the southwestern city targeting the Shia Hazara and killing more than 180 people, sparking nationwide protests.

 “We have always been demanding arrest of all those involved in any act of sectarian violence, irrespective of their party affiliation,” said Abdul Khaliq Hazara, leader of the Shiite Hazara Democratic Party. “Ishaq must be brought to justice and punished for involvement in violence,” he added.

Ishaq, who has been arrested before, was released by a court on bail in July 2011, even though he has been implicated in dozens of murders. His latest arrest – which came a day after the Pakistani army denied any links to LeJ – should not be an “eye wash”, said Sajid Naqvi, leader of the Shia Ulema Council.

The LeJ leader said on Friday that he had been arrested in connection with the Quetta bombings. Earlier, he has been detained by authorities for one month a week after the banned religious outfit claimed responsibility for a deadly bombing in Quetta killing over 90 people. Speaking to reporters prior to his arrest, Ishaq denied any involvement in the Quetta bombing or any such incident.

A spokesman for the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government in Punjab, Pervaiz Rasheed, confirmed the news and said Ishaq would be held for one month. “There were complaints against him, that he had been making provocative speeches in the past month,” he said. Interestingly he forgot to mention that LeJ has been accepting responsibilities of targeting Shias, particularly Hazaras.

Ishaq is said to be one of the founders of LeJ, which is accused of sectarian killings and has accepted claim of several attacks on the ethnic Hazara Shia population in Balochistan. According to police records, Ishaq was involved in more than 40 cases relating to sectarianism and terrorism in which 70 people, most of them Shias, were killed.

The Hazara Democratic Party (HDP) has demanded of the federal government to convene joint session of the parliament to discuss the killings of ethnic Shia Hazaras in Quetta.

Addressing a press conference on Saturday, Hazara Democratic Party (HDP) Central Chairman Abdul Khaliq Hazara said, “We have buried more than 1,200 people during last few years,” He also claimed that the victims of targeted killings and suicide attacks also included a large number of women and children.

“We have always been demanding arrest of all those involved in any act of sectarian violence, irrespective of their party affiliation,” said Abdul Khaliq Hazara. “Ishaq must be brought to justice and punished for involvement in violence,” he added.

South Asia Media Summit in Islamabad

The two-day South Asia Media Summit (SAMS) initially scheduled for January was held this month amid much uncertainty and confusion. The Summit organized by All Pakistan Newspaper Society (APNS) was graced by Prime Minister Raja Ashraf, despite his hectic schedule.

The delight was presence of Indian media tycoons, who managed to finally reach Islamabad, despite fog and closed roads. The summit was scheduled to take place last month but had to be cancelled due to sits in called by Tahir-ul-Qadri and those protesting against genocide of Hazaras in twin attacks in Quetta a few days in January in which around 100 Shias were killed. 

Organizers of the Summit once gain faced similar situation but finally emerged successful. The blast on 16^th February killed another 100 Hazaras which once again led to sits in various cities, especially in Quetta where mourners refused to bury the killed unless their demands were met.

The SAMS aimed at dwelling upon challenges faced by main stream media in the emerging situation, due to enormous growth of digital and social media. One of the reasons is that mainstream media still suffers due to ‘policies’ either determined by the media owners or by the government.

In a rather suffocated environment digital and social media has emerged as safety valve. However, often issue of credibility arises, mainly because of armature handling and inexperience.The digital and social media still suffers from resource constraints and at times it has to also rely on main stream media.

It is believed that while there may be certain lessons for the main stream media, the difference in the mindset of Pakistani and Indian media owners and professionals often creates highly undesirable situations. Though, a lot of efforts are being made under ‘Aman ki Asha’ the ongoing process is often derailed on the smallest pretext, the latest being tension at LoC.

It is often that to reduce the tension between the two countries their economic interest should be integrated. There are two opinions; first that Pakistan gives MFN status to India that will pave way for the resolution of Kashmir issue, second that trade should not be allowed until resolution of Kashmir.

However, it is often said that media becomes subservient to hawks present on both sides of border. If Pakistani hawks insist on not granting MFN status to India, it is the reaction to the demand of Indian hawks who say’ “We will not allow another division of India on the basis of religion.

Though, India often blames Pakistan for providing safe sanctuaries for militants and cross border terrorism, similar allegations are also made by Pakistan. This statement of aggression mainly emerges because hawks present on both sides of borders often emerge stronger than the government. This attitude becomes too obvious when Indian channels initiate a campaign against Pakistan, which also try to respond in the similar manner.

India has emerged as ‘Big Brother’ in SAARC as many of its endeavors aim at proving itself a regional super power. While it is true that enormous size of India gives it the reasons to claim this position, at times it is felt that the United States is trying to create its own hegemony in South Asia by supporting India.

This perception gets come credence when one looks at the involvement of India in the construction of Chabahar port in Iran and rail and road links connecting the port to Central Asia via Afghanistan. While there is enormous pressure of United Sates on Pakistan not to buy Iranian gas, India has not been stopped from undertaking this billions of dollar investment in Iran, enduring economic sanctions for more than three decades.

It is true that geo politics often drives foreign policy and economic agenda of India and Pakistan but carrying a huge load of unresolved issues will not allow the two neighbors ‑ now atomic powers ‑ to benefit from the strengths of each other. Unless the prevailing mindset is not changed ‘Aman ki Asha’ will remain a far cry.