India overreacting on Gwadar port issue

India seems to be suffering from a tendency of making unnecessary hue and cry on any action taken by Pakistan, even if it is purely of commercial nature.

This point was proved once again when Indian Defence Minister A.K. Antony said, “China's role in operating a strategically important port in Pakistan is a matter of concern for India”.

However, Salman Khurshid, Indian Foreign Minister later tried to pacify by saying there was no need to overreact to Pakistan’s transferring the management of Gwadar port to China from Singapore.

"I don't think we should overreact to everything that Pakistan does or everything that China is involved in. We need to take these matters in our stride and in the normal course," said Khurshid. He added, "There is a delicate balance in the entire region and I think none of us should be doing something which will upset that balance."

Transfer of management control of Gwadar port to China has become matter of concern India because it considers the port, which is close to the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping lane will open up an energy and trade corridor from the Gulf, across Pakistan to western China. India also believes that China will get the capacity to deploy its forces in the region.

To be honest, transferring control of Gwadar port to China should be of no concern to India, it is Pakistan’s prerogative. The country signed a deal with Singapore that didn't work out as desired. Singapore's PSA International and the Chinese have settled the deal amicably and give no opportunity to any country to even discuss the issue.

China has already made clear that Gwadar is a commercial project and part of longstanding bilateral cooperation between the two countries. Historically, China has been supporting Pakistan to overcome its economic woes, especially in the areas Pakistan faces opposition from the United States.

It is pertinent to mention that the United States refused to treat Pakistan at par with India when the question of transfer of nuclear technology for civilian use came. India was given this technology as reward for not participating in Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project.

It is also on record that the United States has not stopped India from constructing Chabahar port in Iran and also the rail and road link up to Central Asia passing through Afghanistan. Chabahar port is located even closer to the Strait of Hormuz.

Experts are of the consensus that the United States has been busy in creating its hegemony in South Asia and MENA (Middle East and North Africa). To achieve this it has joined hands with India and promoting its as regional super power.

Construction of Chabahar port is aimed at undermining importance of Pakistan and especially Gwadar port. India is often alleged of supporting rebel groups of Balochistan, which are demanding transferring control of Gwadar port to the provincial government.

A lot of money is required to make Gwadar port efficient and cost effective and the provincial government does not have the funds. It must be recalled that China has extended funds and technical support in the contraction of this deep sea commercial port and also willing to extend more funds, may be this is not liked by India and United States.

Kashmir Can Initiate Third World War

Since 1990 Kashmir Solidarity Day is being celebrated on 5 February every year as a day of protest against Indian occupation of Kashmir. Pakistan maintains that Kashmir is a disputed territory and its final status must be determined by the people of Kashmir. Certain Kashmiri groups believe that Kashmir should be independent of both India and Pakistan. But the resolution seems difficult because both India and Pakistan consider Kashmir their lifeline and are not ready to abandon it at all.

One of the apprehensions is that the third world war will be fought on water and this time it will not be in any other continent but Asia, and most probably in Kashmir. Since independence India and Pakistan have fought three wars and all of these were ignited because of Kashmir, a thorn British Raj had left when it decided to quit the subcontinent.

Some say the Raj couldn’t decide the fate of Kashmir but the growing perception is that it was not on the agenda. The Raj wanted to leave a permanent point of conflict for the newly independent states so that at no stage these two countries even think about cooperating with each other. In fact the Raj was right that this permanent conflict will neither allow these countries to become an economic power. In fact these would become the biggest buyers of armament and the history has proved the Raj was right.

Over the years India has been saying that Kashmir is its integral part and the latest stance it ‘we will not allow another division of Hindustan on the basis of religion’. They even go to the extent of saying that division of India on the basis of religion in 1947 was wrong. In fact the followers of extremist Hindus believed that Pakistan would not survive beyond a few months and also made efforts to weaken Pakistan on one or the other pretext.

 The Kashmir issue has not only resulted in three wars but the countries have been spending billions of dollars annually on procurement of conventional and non-conventional arsenal. Since the two countries have attained the status of atomic powers world leaders have been stressing the need to resolve the Kashmir dispute to avoid an eventuality that may cause a catastrophe in the region. Kashmir is the nuclear flash point of Asia, surrounded by three nuclear powers.

India has been saying that Kashmir is its integral part, though the Prime Minister of India, Manmohan Singh, stated after the 2010 Kashmir Unrest that his government is willing to grant autonomy within the purview of Indian constitution to Kashmir if there is consensus on this issue. Pakistan maintains that Kashmir is the disputed territory and its final status must be determined by the people of Kashmir. China states that Aksai Chin is a part of China and does not recognize the addition of Aksai Chin to the Kashmir region. Certain Kashmiri independence groups believe that Kashmir should neither be a part of India nor of Pakistan but should be given an independent state.

In 1989, a widespread popular and armed insurgency started in Kashmir. This resulted in the formation of militant wings and beginning of the Mujahadeen insurgency, which continues to this day. India contends that the insurgency was largely started by Afghan Mujahadeen who entered the Kashmir valley following the end of the Soviet-Afghan War. Yasin Malik, a leader of one faction of the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front, was one of the Kashmiris to organize militancy in Kashmir. Since 1995, Malik has renounced the use of violence and calls for strictly peaceful methods to resolve the dispute. He developed differences for shunning the demand for an independent Kashmir.

India claims these insurgents groups get support from Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Afghanistan. They claim Pakistan is supplying munitions to the terrorists and training them in Pakistan. India states that the terrorists have been killing many citizens in Kashmir and committing human rights violations but don’ accept that their own armed forces are responsible for extra judicial murder of thousands of Kashmires and worst abuse of human rights.

Kashmir, as disputed territory between India and Pakistan, is one of the most militarized places in the world. Decades of violence and brutality have divided Hindu and Muslim communities, forcing over nearly half a million people to flee their homes. Military convoys and soldiers armed with AK-47 rifles on the streets are a common scene.

India holds that the Instrument of Accession of the State of Jammu and Kashmir to the Union of India, signed by Maharaja Hari Singh (erstwhile ruler of the State) on 25 October 1947 and executed on 27 October 1947 between the ruler of Kashmir and the Governor General of India was a legal act. It says that The Constituent assembly of Jammu and Kashmir had unanimously ratified the Maharaja's Instrument of Accession to India.

India does not accept the two-nation theory that forms the basis of Pakistan and considers that Kashmir, despite being a Muslim-majority state, is an integral part of India. The common accusation is that insurgency and terrorism in Kashmir is being fueled by Pakistan. The Government of India has repeatedly accused Pakistan of waging a proxy war in Kashmir by providing weapons and financial assistance to terrorist groups in the region.

Pakistan accuses India of hypocrisy, as it refused to recognize the accession of Junagadh to Pakistan and Hyderabad's independence, on the grounds that those two states had Hindu majorities. In fact, India had occupied and forcibly integrated those two territories. Pakistan asserts that the Maharaja held no authority in determining Kashmir's future. Pakistan argues that even if the Maharaja had any authority in determining the plight of Kashmir, he signed the Instrument of Accession under duress, thus invalidating the legitimacy of his actions.

Pakistan says: 1) the popular Kashmiri insurgency demonstrates that the Kashmiri people no longer wish to remain within India. Pakistan suggests that this means that Kashmir either wants to be with Pakistan or independent. 2) According to the two-nation theory, which is one of the theories that is cited for the partition that created India and Pakistan, Kashmir should have been with Pakistan, because it has a Muslim majority. 3) India has shown disregard to the resolutions of the UN Security Council and failed in holding a plebiscite to determine the future allegiance of the state.

Experts say that the real reason for the dispute over Kashmir is water. Kashmir is the origin point for many rivers and tributaries. The river basin is divided between Pakistan, which has about 60 per cent of the catchment area, India with about 20 per cent, Afghanistan with 5 per cent and around 15 per cent in China. The river tributaries are the Jhelum and Chenab rivers, which primarily flow into Pakistan while other branches—the Ravi, Beas, and the Sutlej—irrigates northern India. The Kashmir dispute and the dispute over the water control are somehow related and the fight over the water remains as one of the main problems when establishing good relationships between the two countries.

US buying Iranian oil suspected

There is consensus that super powers violate globally agreed policies, when their own interest is at stake. Though, one can come up with a long list of such policy violations, stories of world’s leading economies defying economic sanctions imposed on Iran have started appearing as headlines in global media.

The latest story publish in Eurasia Review has raised suspicions that even United States, the mastermind of these sanctions was involved in buying Iranian oil. The expected copybook reply could be “We placed order with an exporter and were not aware that the load was blended with oil of Iranian origin.”

Eurasia Review report says, “There is a high probability that US sanctions against Iran have been violated by its own army. Part of the $1.55 billion in fuel the US bought from Turkmenistan for the Afghan army in the last five years may have originated from Iran.”

A report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has also suggested that “despite actions taken by DOD to prevent the purchase of Iranian fuel with US funds, risks remain that US economic sanctions could [have been] violated” from 2007 to 2012.

The suspicion rises because most of the fuel being used in Afghanistan comes from neighboring Iran. Because of the US sanctions on Tehran restricting the trade of Iranian oil and petroleum products, the ISAF has been required to abide by the regulations and buy petrol from eight Afghan-owned companies that deliver petroleum from Turkmenistan, which borders both Iran and Afghanistan.

Turkmenistan is a major regional oil producer, which also sells petroleum products made in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia and even Iran. Petrol vendors in Turkmenistan use flexible supply schemes, meaning that fuel of various origins could potentially be blended together.

In response SIGAR report, the US Embassy in Kabul stated “It is possible that if blending is taking place in Turkmenistan it could contain some Iranian fuel,” but refused to admit that fuel imported from Russia could also be blended with Iranian fuel prior to its export to Afghanistan.

It is believed that suppliers are unlikely to blend Iranian fuel, or any other product, with other sourced fuel because of the potential that blending could cause product deviation from specification standards and potentially cause a rejection of the entire shipment, said the Embassy.

A Reuter report says the US believes that the most common trick Iran uses to dodge sanctions is ship-to-ship transfers (STS), in which large tankers leaving Iran’s ports offload Iranian oil to smaller vessels. Then, the Iranian oil is blended with that of another country to disguise it. After that, new shipping documents are issued, giving the blended oil shipment a new identity.

One can still recall that when restrictions were imposed on buying oil from Iran many countries were exempted only to save their economies from sudden and grave shocks. Some of the countries are still buying oil from Iran.

In the recent past Iran was OPEC’s second largest oil producing member, exporting 2.2 million barrels oil per day. The economic sanctions have more than halved oil exports to 890,000 barrels by September 2012.

However, Iranian crude oil exports once again rose to 1.4 million barrels per day lately. Most of this oil was bought by three leading Asian economies; China, India and Japan, where demand for energy has been on the rise. The expansion of tanker fleet by Iran has also helped it to export more oil.

Iran boosts oil export despite sanctions

Economic interest remains most important for the countries around the world, irrespective of their being or not being part of any bloc or pressure group. This seems omnipresent when one looks at the developed countries buying oil from Iran, and defying economic sanctions. This leeway was initially given by the United States to a few countries but others are also joining the exempt elites.

In one of its latest reports Reuters said, “Iran's crude oil exports in December leapt to their highest level since European Union sanctions took effect last July, analysts and shipping sources said, as strong Chinese demand and tanker fleet expansion helped the OPEC member dodge sanctions.”

According to the report, oil exports from Iran rose to around 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) during December 2012. Western sanctions had halved Iran's oil exports during 2012 from 2.2 million bpd in late 2011. But continuous robust demand from top buyer China and others such as India and Japan, as well as the purchase of new tankers, allowed Iran to boost exports late last year.

According to Reuter report Iran shipped more than 1.4 million bpd of crude oil in December and there are indications that exports would remain around the same level during January-March quarter of 2013.

This represents an increase from a low-point of less than 900,000 bpd in September and suggests monthly revenues worth approximately $4.7 billion based on December Brent prices.

One of the factors helping Iran to boost its oil export was purchase of tankers from China, which enabled it to ship more oil, even if shipping companies from other countries were not willing to carry the load.

This has taken some pressure off Iran and facilitated tanker traffic and analysts foresee further increase in oil export to China.

It is also believed that the rise in oil exports from Iran to nearly 1.4 million bpd was the result of traditional buyers finding new ways to secure insurance of oil being carried by the Iranian tankers.

Israel asked to vacate Palestinian land

According to an AFP report Israel has been asked to immediately stop all settlement activity and begin withdrawal of its settlers from the Palestinian territories on Thursday.

“Israel must … cease all settlement activities without preconditions (and) must immediately initiate a process of withdrawal of all settlers” from the occupied territories, a UN fact-finding mission concluded.

Because of the settlements, Palestinians’ human rights “are being violated consistently and on a daily basis,” the three independent experts said in a report commissioned by the UN’s Human Rights Council last March.

The three experts; Christine Chanet of France, Asma Jahangir of Pakistan and Unity Dow of Botswana will  present their findings to the 47-member state council on March 18. Israel has been asked Jewish to “ensure adequate, effective and prompt remedy to all Palestinian victims … of human rights violations that are a result of the settlements.”

The council’s decision to dispatch the fact-finding mission to determine what impact the settlements are having on the rights of Palestinians so enraged the Jewish state that it cut all ties with the 47-member state council in March 2012.

The experts published their findings just two days after Israel made its anger felt by becoming the first country to ever boycott a special council review of its rights situation.

Israel, as usual has termed this report bias saying it would only hamper peace efforts.

“The Human Rights Council has sadly distinguished itself by its systematically one-sided and biased approach towards Israel. This latest report is yet another unfortunate reminder of that,” foreign ministry spokesman Yigal Palmor said.

“Counterproductive measures, such as the report before us, will only hamper efforts to find a sustainable solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict,” Palmor said.

“The only way to resolve all pending issues between Israel and the Palestinians, including the settlements issue, is through direct negotiations without pre-conditions.”

The experts were not able to visit Israel or the Palestinian territories, after failing to secure Israeli permission, and instead met in Jordan with more than 50 people affected by the settlements or working in NGOs in a relevant field, it said.

The Jewish state is not a member of the council but like all 193 UN countries it is required to undergo Universal Periodic Reviews of its human rights situation.

Israel Attacks Syria

And finally warmonger Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tests the patience of his key rival Syria and its allies Iran and Hezbollah by attacking a caravan in Syria.

Israel is not likely to accept this, which is usual as it never admitted the 2007 air strike on a Syrian nuclear site despite US authorities confirming it.

According to a Reuters report Israeli jets bombed a convoy near Syria's border with Lebanon early on Wednesday apparently targeting weapons destined for Hezbollah. This is being termed a warning to Damascus not to arm Israel's Lebanese enemy.

Syrian state television accused Israel of bombing a military research centre, at Jamraya and even Syrian rebels disputed Israeli claim saying their forces had attacked the site. But Israel insisted on that the truck was carrying sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah.

According to Western diplomats the target was a truck loaded with weapons, heading from Syria to Lebanon and may have included anti-aircraft missiles or long-range rockets.

The overnight raid followed warnings from Israel that it was ready to act to prevent the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad leading to Syria's chemical weapons and modern rockets reaching either his Hezbollah allies or his Islamist enemies.

Syrian sources said these criminal acts would not weaken Syria's support for Palestinians and other groups engaged in resistance to Israel. Apparently the episode boils down to a warning by Israel to Syria and Hezbollah not to engage in the transfer of sensitive weapons.

Experts say Assad knows his survival depends on his military capabilities and he would not want those capabilities neutralized by Israel - so the message is this kind of transfer is simply not worth it, neither for him nor Hezbollah.

Such a strike or strikes would fit Israel's policy of preemptive covert and overt action to curb Hezbollah and does not necessarily indicate a major escalation of the war in Syria.

It is on record that Israel has recently raised its concerns about Syrian chemical weapons, but its officials say a more immediate worry is that the civil war could see weapons that are capable of denting its massive superiority in air power and tanks reaching Hezbollah; the group fought Israel in 2006 and remains a more pressing threat than its Syrian and Iranian sponsors.

Israel’s problem is even bigger because rebel groups of Syria are hostile to Jewish state because of its atrocities  An attack inside Syria could be diplomatically provocative, especially because Iran views any strike on Syria as an attack on itself.

Israeli apprehends that Syria's advanced conventional weapons, much of it Russian-built hardware has the capacity to destroy Israeli planes and tanks.

Hezbollah fighters and the Syrian army have close relations. While Damascus may have been reluctant to hand over key parts of its own arsenal to its Lebanese allies, some analysts suggest that if Syrian or Hezbollah commanders fear hardware is about to fall into rebel hands they might try to move it across the border - possibly even without formal government approval.

During the 2006 war in Lebanon, Israel's air forced faced little threat, though its navy was taken aback when a missile hit a ship. Israeli tanks suffered losses to rockets, and commanders are concerned Hezbollah may get better weaponry.

Pakistan: Armed encounters or open war

Experts have been saying for a long time that various groups getting funds and arms from outside have developed safe heavens in Balochistan and federally administered tribal area (Fata) of Pakistan.

In Balochistan they claim to be fighting for the rights of Balochs and in Fata for the imposition of Sharia. However, the sole objective of these insurgents is to create discontent by weakening Pakistan for the ultimate creation of independent Balochistan and Pushtunistan.

Experts have the consensus that since both the areas, though located at some distance, are rich in oil, gas and minerals are the focus of promoters of the new global order.

These forces are trying to get control over Pakistan’s energy reserves by fragmenting the country. In different areas miscreants wear different caps but the objective is common.

Pakistan’s security forces have repeatedly come under attack in Balochistan. This could be termed ‘challenging writ of the government’. In the latest incident dozens of armed men raided a pro-government tribal militia post, killing one man and abducting five.

The early morning raid took place in Dera Bugti district, about 400 kilometers southeast of provincial capital Quetta. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack.

Armed men attacked the post and whisked away five members of the tribal force in their vehicles after forcing them to surrender. One man who resisted was shot dead by the assailants.

Local administration confirmed the raid and informed security forces had been rushed to the area and a search operation had been launched.

It is often said that Balochistan is home to a local insurgency. The insurgents demand political autonomy and a greater share of profits from the province’s oil and gas resources.

The province has become a flashpoint for sectarian violence. Lately, Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf sacked the provincial government in Balochistan after a sit in by the relatives of nearly 100 people killed in twin blasts in Quetta.

After that a serious constitutional crisis brewed in when the Speaker of the provincial assembly summoned a session. The immediate response was that the Speaker had disregarded the fact that the province was under Governor’s Rule.

Perplexed constitutional and legal experts wondered did the assembly want to play the role of a parallel government against the one headed by Governor Zulfiqar Ali Magsi?

According to another report the death toll in a gun-battle that erupted between the banned outfit Teheek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its rival group Ansar-ul-Islam (AI) in the Khyber tribal region has crossed 60.

The gun-fight had started late on Thursday in Maidan village in Khyber’s Tirah Valley. Most of the dead were militants but some local tribesmen were also killed.

Khyber is among Pakistan’s seven semi-autonomous tribal districts near the Afghan border that has been made home by local insurgents and religious extremist organizations including the TTP. Khyber also links several agencies to each other, serving as a north-south route within Fata.

The remote Tirah valley holds strategic significance for militant groups. On one side, it shares a border with Afghanistan and on the other it leads to the plains of Bara, which connect the agency to the outskirts of Peshawar.

China defying sanctions imposed on Iran

The recently released data shows Iran’s crude oil exports to China soared to the second highest level in December 2012, despite US-led sanctions against the Islamic Republic’s energy sector.

According to Reuters report China imported nearly 593,390 barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Iran in December last year, up 3.6 per cent from the preceding year and up 39 per cent from November. For the full year 2012, the highest level of China's crude imports from Iran stood at 633,000 bpd.

Industry officials in China attributed the enhancement in Iran’s crude oil exports to improvement in shipment. The problems that used to cause delays have been overcome recently. The period of delay has become shorter and overall, less frequent.

Iran is currently China's third largest supplier of crude, providing Beijing with roughly 12 percent of its total annual oil consumption.

 At the beginning of 2012, the United States and the European Union had imposed new sanctions on Iran’s oil and financial sectors with the goal of preventing other countries from purchasing Iranian oil and conducting transactions with the Central Bank of Iran.

On October 15, 2012, the EU foreign ministers reached an agreement on another round of sanctions against Iran.

Iran terms these impositions illegal and insists that US-engineered sanctions were imposed based on the unfounded accusation that Iran is pursuing non-civilian objectives in its nuclear energy program.

According to another news report China will soon start importing polyethylene made in Iran, which became possible after the Islamic Republic partially lifted a ban on the export of petrochemicals late last year.

Lately, China-based market sources said that an estimated 100,000-150,000 metric tons of high density polyethylene (HDPE) and low density polyethylene (LDPE) from Iran is expected to arrive in China within a month aboard five vessels. The sources added that the Iranian tanker Touska will shortly discharge HDPE and LDPE at Shanghai port. 

On November 6, 2012, Iranian Deputy Oil Minister Abdolhossein Bayat announced that the Oil Ministry had lifted the ban on the export of seven petrochemicals; benzene, styrene monomer, caustic soda, linear alkyl benzene (LAB), melamine crystal, premature ventricular contraction (PVC), and polyethylene.

Netanyahu’s victory bad omen for global peace

Benjamin Netanyahu has once again won sufficient number of seats to qualify him to be the next Prime Minister of Israel. Netanyahu sounded warmonger when he told cheering supporters that the first challenge was and remains preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. He also expressed hoped to usher in the kind of change the Israeli people are waiting for with the broadest government possible.

However, media is describing the results as a setback for Netanyahu and his hardliner allies and say the vote could force him to consider alliances with moderate rivals who have made significant gains in the polls. According to initial reports Netanyahu’s Likud-Beitenu got 31 seats – 11 fewer than its 42 seats in the previous parliament. The centrist secular Yesh Atid won 19 seats, followed by the Labor Party with 17 seats and the far-right religious nationalist Jewish Home with 12 seats.

Israel’s elections results have apparently weakened Netanyahu and raised the prospect of a more centrist government that could ease strained relations with Washington and signal more flexibility in peace efforts with the Palestinians. Netanyahu will face a potentially difficult balancing act, trying to accommodate the rising hawkish wing of his Likud party and other rightist and religious parties that will remain influential in parliament.

Yesh Atid has emerged as a key contender in the formation of an inevitable coalition. Netanyahu would almost certainly have to join forces with Yesh Atid, now second in size. The centrist party’s demands include resuming negotiations with the Palestinians and an alliance that could result in a government less tilted to the right than Netanyahu’s outgoing administration.

It is expected that a moderate Israeli government with a large centrist component could improve Netanyahu’s tense ties with the US administration and ease Israel’s international isolation, which has been deepened by the impasse in peace talks and by Netanyahu’s recent announcements of stepped-up settlement building in the West Bank.

Netanyahu said he had begun contacts to form the broadest government possible, which would address a range of issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, peace efforts and domestic reforms demanded by Yesh Atid and other centrist parties.

Netanyahu will be more dependent on smaller coalition partners to cobble together a governing majority. Coalition talks are likely to take weeks, with hard bargaining expected before a new government can be sworn in.

The surprise result was the surge by Yesh Atid, which won 19 seats. Its leader, Yair Lapid, a former television news anchor and a political novice, based his campaign on a demand to end preferential treatment for tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews who are exempted from compulsory military service to pursue religious studies with government stipends.

Lapid’s campaign for equal service and easing the burden on a struggling middle class resonated with many secular Israelis, who pay high taxes and serve in the military. He says that the ultra-Orthodox should join the workforce and do a stint of national service, either in the military or in a civilian capacity, such as working in hospitals or helping the elderly.

Netanyahu's personal character has the potential to not only inflame the region and may also severely impact the United States. Painting his country into a corner with red lines and lobbying America politicians to do the same is both a military and economic danger to the entire world.

Israel needs a world class leader, one that can change world opinion, provide a conscience and add some moral direction. Obviously it needs something completely different than it has now. If the next government is feckless and stupid, the Israel economy and people will be sunk and the supposed peace process also doomed.

The ultimate question on the peace process is whether the slow motion Israel thievery and torture will be the same as a fast-paced thievery and torture of the Palestinian people and also the war mania to wipeout Iran. A point has been established beyond doubt that over three decades of economic sanctions has made Iranian stronger and an important regional power.

US Drone attacks on the rise in Pakistan

The first gift of the US President Barak Obama to Pakistan, after assuming the charge for the second term, is giving CIA a free hand to undertake drone attacks in its territory. While the government, through foreign minister Hina Rabbani Khar intends to further discuss the issue, a person of average wit now openly opposes these attacks.

There is a growing perception that such attacks can't be executed without the active support of ground staff.  Many Pakistani now strongly believe that these attacks are undertaken with the consent of the Government of Pakistan (GoP).

Very precise information is required about the target, a hideout of militants and till last minute coordination with the ground support. The precision is enviable because in each attack some key members of the militant groups are blown up, though a large number of women and children also die. It is said that these women and children are used as human shield.

The first question arises, from where these drones takeoff? Previously Jacobabad base of Pakistan Air Force was used and the general perception is that now these drones come from Afghanistan. This statement still carries low validity.

The real point to ponder is if these drones come from Afghanistan, why can't Pakistan Air Force intercept these? There are two options; either the Air Force is not allowed to intercept these killer aero planes or Pakistan doesn't have the technology to intercept.

The overwhelming perception is that Pakistan Air Force is not allowed to intercept the drones because the enemy is common, militants targeting the US as well as Pakistani interest. 

Lately, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said the issue of drone attacks would be taken up with US Ambassador to Pakistan Richard Olson.

Delivering a policy statement in the Senate, Khar said drone attacks were a violation of Pakistan's territorial integrity, adding that the government was not oblivious to the challenges confronting the country.

Khar's statement on US drones came in the wake of the Obama administration's finalizing of a rule book for targeted killings which would not apply to Pakistan, enabling the CIA to freely conduct direct drone strikes in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata).

Critical of the US policy, Imran Khan Chief of Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf (PTI) has expressed concerns on the reports that the GoP has given a free hand to CIA to undertake drone attacks in Pakistan. He expressed his dismay at the continuing drone strikes and the contemplated increase in them. "These strikes have not reduced militancy; in fact are a major stimulant to terrorism," said PTI Chairman Imran Khan. According to Khan during last eight years nearly 360 strikes were carried out with over 300 during the first tenure of the Obama.

According to some conservative estimates nearly 4,000 people have died in these attacks, with a large percentage of non-combatants, women and over 200 children. These statistics tell a story not only of tragedies for the people of FATA but why there has been a huge increase in militancy.

Many senators have also deplored the US bill allowing more drone strikes inside Pakistan. The matter was raised by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Senator Syed Zafar Ali Shah and was duly supported by members of other political parties.

Speaking on a point of order, Shah said the US Congress had passed a bill allowing the CIA to carry out more drone strikes inside Pakistan "at will" which was a violation of the UN laws and sovereignty of Pakistan.

Pakistan: Baloch Dissent or Revolt

A serious constitutional crisis seems to be brewing in Pakistan’s troubled Balochistan province with the speaker summoning a session of the provincial assembly on a requisition signed by 19 legislators.

The immediate response is that Speaker Syed Matiullah Agha has summoned the session disregarding the fact that the province is under Governor’s Rule.

Some constitutional and legal experts are perplexed and are exploring, does the assembly want to play the role of a parallel government against the one headed by Governor Zulfiqar Ali Magsi?

Reportedly former speaker Aslam Bhootani and some experts are of the view that when the president imposes Governor’s Rule under Article 234 any required legislation may be done by parliament.

However, Baz Mohammad Kakar, former chief of the Baloch Bar Association said that requisitioning the session under the current circumstances was unlawful.

To understand the potential confrontation in Balochistan, it is necessary to peep into the history. In a nut shell neither the elected nor the dictatorial rule in Pakistan has enjoyed cordial relationship with the Baloch tribal chiefs.

Some of the basic point of confrontation include from too much interference from federation to usurping rights of Balochs and from too little developmental funds to federation taking over key mineral assets.

This sense of deprivation is deep rooted and the first resentment emerged because for decades residents of Balochistan didn’t get access to natural gas produced in the province.

Over the years many of the tribal chiefs have been living in self exile for and asking their tribes to fight with the law enforcing agencies, including Pakistan Army.  Having been frustrated with the regimes in Pakistan, they even started demanding for an independent Balochistan.

It becomes egg or chicken first situation as Baloch tribal chiefs are demanding removal of cantonments but Army is not willing to do this without restoration of complete law and order situation.

One of the allegations is that tribal chiefs got billions of rupees from the federal government, which they pocketed mostly and hardly bothered to spend it on the welfare of their own people.

However, to save themselves from any potential fallout they kept on playing the mantra that federal government was not giving enough funds and asking tribesmen to opt for armed confrontation.

It is on record that no major industries could be established in the province and its sole source of income remained royalty received on oil and gas produced in the province, bulk of which was pocketed by tribal chiefs.

Over the years at least three industrial estates were established in the province to lure investment, which also came but soon sponsors were forced to close down enterprises, even at Hub in close proximity with Karachi.

The biggest allegation was that representatives of tribal chiefs demanded booty and insisted on employing locals. Hiring locals was not a big issue as long as they were willing to work according to their qualification and experience.

However, a serious problem emerged when local chiefs started demanding very high wages for these workers and insisted on receiving the payment and paying paltry amounts to workers.

It is on record that Gaddani ship breaking yard was at one time the largest in the world but now it has been reduced to a junkyard.

It is also on record that once Balochistan has the largest share in gas production but now Sindh has nearly 75% share in total gas produced in the country.

All this is the outcome of precarious law and order situation for which no one except Baloch tribal chiefs can be held responsible. One of their favorite pastime is blowing up electricity and gas transmission lines.

Baloch tribal chiefs are demanding handing over Gwadar deep sea port to the provincial government but just don’t understand the point that they don’t have the expertise.

They also don’t understand the strategic importance of this port, managing a modern sea port is not like managing a fish harbor. This port has been constructed to handle transit trade of Afghanistan and Central Asia.

The fight between Balochistan provincial and federal government has provided India an opportunity to construct Chabahar port in Iran. Once fully functional will severely undermine Pakistan’s importance.

However, the entire world knows that Pakistan offers the shortest and most efficient route to Central Asia via Afghanistan and wish they could use Gwadar port. Now it is the choice Baloch tribal chiefs to exploit this opportunity or let Chabahar become the next maritime hub.

Strangulated Pak India diplomatic relations

One often has to believe the conspiracy theories, though hate it the most. One such theory is that whenever it seems that the two countries are about to achieve a major breakthrough on the diplomatic front, suddenly tension starts developing on borders. Personnel of border forces from both the sides are killed and the entire efforts flop. 

This has happened again lately when it looked almost certain that new visa policy will be introduced by India. There is also pressure on Pakistan to grant India MFN status but certain elements even don’t approve this.

Historically, India has been saying that extremist groups of Pakistan are the stumbling block, but ignoring the extremist groups present within. If Pakistani’s demand giving right of self determination to Kashmiris, the immediate response of Hindu extremists is, “We will not allow another division of Hindustan on the basis of religion.” 

Neither of the sides knows nor even wishes to know how Kashmir issue could be resolved. A question arises; it is an issue being faced by the two neighbors or a geopolitical confrontation in which regional and global powers are involved?

If one looks at the history it becomes evident that the British Raj left a few thorns to ensure that animosity between India and Pakistan remains. They knew that these two countries (now three, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) had the potential to become one of the strongest economic blocs of the world. 

These countries put together enjoy enormous economic potential, offer a market comprising of millions of people and above all most dedicated workers. These three countries are part of SAARC and should have ideally signed free trade agreements, which also bodes well for smaller countries of the region.

Fallout of this ongoing animosity is that Pakistan and India have been spending billions of dollars annually on the procurement of conventional and non-conventional arms. Both the countries have attained the status of nuclear power and have been living in a state of war from the day they got independence from the colonial rule.

 Experts are of the view that had the two countries spent this money on the welfare of their people, most probably these would have been the richest and most developed countries of the world. The reason for making subcontinent a colony was that it was called ‘golden sparrow’ even at that time.

Some of the western experts may not agree with the above assertion but this can be best understood by looking at the creation of Israel and encroachment of areas of neighboring Arab countries. Israel has grown only because of the support of United States and Bangladesh could have not been created without the active support of India and United States. 

The story has not ended and the efforts have continued to further fragment the country into Greater Pakhtunistan, independent Balochistan and Sindhudesh as well as Jinnahpur.

Historically, Pakistan has been providing transit trade facility to landlocked Afghanistan. Pakistan’s importance was realized when the United States decided to help Afghanistan in averting USSR attack. Pakistan’s importance has been further highlighted over the last ten-years due to ongoing war on terror in Afghanistan. 

To undermine Pakistan’s importance India has been fully supported by the United States to construct Chabahar port in Iran and also rail and road link up to Central Asia passing through Afghanistan.

Not only Pakistan but some of the other SAARC member countries feel that Indian high headedness has not allowed functioning of this forum as planned. The common complaint is that India wants to take advantage of its enormous size and keep all other countries, including Pakistan its periphery. 

At times it is realized that India wants to create its hegemony in the region. In this endeavor, India is fully supported by the United States.

There is a growing realization that the United States considers Pakistan ‘mercenary’ and India a business partner. India has been rewarded with nuclear technology for not joining Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline but Pakistan was not being treated at par.

A lot of the US companies have outsourced their business to Indian enterprises but Pakistan remains a victim of ‘travel advise’ issued by Washington. While Pakistan’s demand of ‘trade not aid’ has not been accepted, disbursements under coalition support funds have been delayed on one or the other pretext.

A question arises; is all this humbug there to undermine Pakistan’s importance or to create Indian hegemony in the region? While it is the easiest for the United States and India to undermine Pakistan’s importance, it may not be wrong to say Pakistan’s faulty foreign policy has often annoyed other major super powers, particularly USSR of the past and Russia of today. 

At times even Pakistan’s time test friend China is unable to understand some of the decisions made in Islamabad. Foreign policy gurus often say that being a periphery to United States has caused enormous losses to Pakistan.

One can recall Army chief had lately said Pakistan faces enormous internal threats but many failed to understand the threat. However, it became evident lately when the country was witnessing political volatility, India resorted to unprovoked firing and its Army chief threatened to unilaterally initiate attack Pakistan blaming it of cross border terrorism.

Intellectuals from both the sides have been involved in confidence building measures but process is derailed on one of the other pretext. The new visa policy has been invoked on the pretext that Pakistan was involved in killing of Indian border forces, Pakistan also raises similar allegation against Indian troops.

The recent Indian aggression had refreshed the memories of fall of Dakha  when India supported the rebel groups and the fight ended at the surrender of more than 90 Pakistani soldiers and officers. Fears are being expressed that United States and India are supporting Baloch insurgent groups. 

Though, India has been denying its involvement the question remains, who is proving arms and funds to Baloch insurgents?

Tapping Pakistan’s massive oil and gas reserves

According to an oilprice.com Energy Intelligence Report Pakistan’s tribal areas are believed to have massive reserves of oil and natural gas—which Pakistani officials have suddenly become very keen to demonstrate. But this is a highly restive, war-torn area where one right move could make all the difference, and one wrong move could ignite a conflict with irreversible consequences.

For now, the area remains unexplored and it was only in 2008 when Pakistani geologists began to study the area in earnest, with the support of the local authorities. The results of this research were collected, processed and digitized in June 2012. The geologists discovered seven new oil and gas seepages during the mapping. The geologists also claim that 11 oil and gas exploration companies have already reserved 16 blocks in the Federally Administered Tribal Area (Fata).

Geologists say the area, bursting at the seams with gas, is poised to become a ‘new oil state’ whose production could rival Dubai’s in only five years.

The interest is evident from: 1) seventeen (17) companies have initiated operations in Khyber, Orakzai, North and South Waziristan, Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Tank and Dera Ismail Khan), 2) Tullow has been active in Pakistan since 1991, but since 2008 it has sought to transfer its Asian licenses to focus on Africa and the Atlantic Margin, 3) other players include Mari Gas Company (Pakistan), HYCARBEX (part of American Energy Group ), Saif Energy (Pakistan), MOL Pakistan Oil and Gas, Orient Petroleum International (Ocean Pakistan/Cayman Islands), ZHEN (China), and others and 4) Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDC) of Pakistan is set to begin exploratory drilling in the area soon.

The report has also talked about Gwadar port. In terms of infrastructure, China has been the chief architect, and investor. China has already invested around $300 million in the deep water Gwadar Port close to Gulf of Oman.

Construction began in 2002 and the goal was to make this port a transit hub for landlocked countries (Afghanistan and Central Asia) and to boost transit from the Persian Gulf to East Africa. China plans to invest a total of $1.6 billion in the port—so far it’s cost $200 million to build the first three berths, which can handle $2 billion in cargo annually.

Despite its capacity, cargo has been slow to move through this port, largely because it’s not connected to the rest of the country.