India and Pakistan: Identify Common Enemy

There is a harsh reality often ignored — the people of India and Pakistan have suffered more from poverty, disasters, and neglect rather than from each other’s armies. Yet hawks continue to see the other side of the border as the greatest threat. Generations have grown up believing that patriotism means suspicion, that strength lies in weapons, and that peace is weakness. But what if the real enemy has never worn a uniform or carried a flag?

Both nations spend billions of dollars on arms, missiles, and surveillance — while hospitals run short of beds and medicines, schools crumble, and farmers take their own lives under the weight of debt. A mother in Karachi and a mother in Kanpur worry about the same things: a child’s future, safe drinking water, a stable income, a life with dignity. Yet both are told that the biggest danger lies across the border, not within their own streets.

The real enemies are hunger, illiteracy, unemployment, floods, droughts, and corruption. These enemies do not need visas; they cross borders every day. Floodwaters destroy homes in Sindh and Assam alike. Farmers in Punjab — on both sides — pray for rains and fair prices. Youth in Lahore and Lucknow struggle to find jobs despite degrees. These shared pains are louder than the slogans of hate, if only we choose to listen.

Yes, history has been bitter. Wars have been fought, lives have been lost, and wounds run deep. But must our children inherit this hostility as their only legacy? Are we destined to repeat the same mistakes simply because we are too proud to change?

Imagine a different rivalry — not of tanks and missiles, but of innovation, literacy rates, clean energy, technology, and exports. Imagine India and Pakistan competing to eliminate poverty faster, to educate every child, to heal the sick, to build green economies, to lead the world in science and discovery. That is a kind of competition the world would welcome — and our people desperately need.

True strength is not measured by how many enemies we can defeat, but by how many lives we can uplift. A strong nation is not one that frightens others, but one that gives its citizens hope.

India and Pakistan do not need to become military superpowers. They have the potential to become economic and human development giants — if only they identify their real enemy.

 

IMF Review of Pakistan economy: Privatization remains a hurdle

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed a review of performance of Pakistan’s economy. This has paved way for release of another tranche of US$500 million subject to the approval by the Fund's Board.

It is encouraging to note that the Government of Pakistan (GoP) has managed to meet all five covenants for the period ended 31^st December 2015 as recent foreign inflows amounting to US$2.4 billion helped in achieving US$9.3 billion NIR target, while retirement of budgetary borrowing from SBP kept NDA below its prescribed ceiling of Rs2.58 trillion.

Revenue collection was slightly below the required target reflecting impact of recently imposed duties. This helped the GoP to achieve targets for limiting budget deficit to Rs625 billion, which remained a major concern in the last review.

However, GoP was unable to meet structural benchmarks relating to PIA's privatization, where news flows indicate further delay. While clarity in this regard should emerge from the review report (likely to be released next month), low probability of privatization being completed this year does not bode well and likely to constrain fiscal space further, as Rs50 billion have been budgeted in FY16 under privatization proceeds.

IMF has maintained its positive tone on the country's economic outlook with optimism driven from investments under CPEC, higher construction activity and lower oil prices. However, weak agricultural output this year with low cotton production (down 33%) is a key risk where the Fund has reiterated its GDP growth projection at 4.5%. Inflation level is projected at 3.7% for FY16.

The news flows indicate a possible delay in privatizations of both PIA and power entities by GoP but the Fund has remained silent on the future course for privatizations - contrary to the last review where the IMF emphasized on it. The clarity on Fund's stance on privatization is likely to emerge from the review report to be released late next month.

There is strong perception that Pakistan will get the money irrespective of meeting or not meeting the agreed targets due to the support of its western allies, and neighbors Afghanistan and India. Analysts openly express fears that an economic meltdown could further destabilize the atomic power having a population of over 200 million, suffering from looking power shortages, wide spread corruption and ever growing militancy.

Fragile economy, energy crisis, corruption, militancy