I am an ardent reader of the proceedings of ‘United States
Institute of Peace’, particularly on Iran. Today, I am referring to a few snapshots
of its recent release on Iran.
I want my readers to read the briefs but also keep
two points in minds: 1) since Islamic revolution in Iran, US has emerged as its
worst enemy and 2) every failed attempt to ‘change the regime in Iran’ adds to
US frustration and desperation.
Keeping Iran under ‘stringent economic
sanctions’ has not weakened it, on the contrary, Iran has emerged the biggest
resistance in the creation of ‘US hegemony in the Arabian Peninsula’.
According to United States Institute of Peace, “Half of
American adults expect the US to go to war with Iran “within the next few
years.” In a survey conducted by Reuters
of a representative sample of 1,007 adults were asked a series of questions
from May 17-20 amid heightened tensions between Washington and
Tehran. Some 53 percent of adults considered Iran a “serious” or
“imminent” threat. But only 12 percent said US forces should conduct a
preemptive attack on Iranian military interests.”
Since the 1979 revolution, Washington and Tehran have
gyrated between hostile actions and diplomatic overtures. Relations have never
recovered from the seizure of the US Embassy and 52 diplomats. The US attempted
military action to end the drama but eventually turned to diplomacy. Since
then, the Islamic Republic has been linked, directly or indirectly, to the
deaths of hundreds of Americans, while the US has been responsible for the
deaths of hundreds of Iranians. Yet both countries have also dabbled in bold
outreach, with mixed results.
Lately, Acting US Defense Secretary, Patrick Shanahan has reiterated
that the US does not want to go to war with Iran. On May 21, he told reporters
that recent US moves have deterred attacks on US interests in the Middle East.
“Our biggest focus at this point is to prevent Iranian miscalculation,” he
said.
US lawmakers have been divided over what to do next to deal
with the escalating tensions between the US and Iran. The split is largely
along partisan lines. Democrats voiced concern that the Trump administration
was leading the US into a new Middle East war. Republicans largely denied that
the administration sought war with Iran but emphasized that the US would
respond forcefully if its forces in the Middle East were attacked.
A peep into recent history indicates President Trump’s
election produced dramatic change in US policy in 2017. The US withdrew from
the nuclear deal with Iran and the word’s major powers in May 2018. The Trump
administration has been following a “maximum pressure campaign” to press Iran
to change its policies and negotiate a more comprehensive deal.
Since taking office, Trump has taken an increasingly
aggressive posture toward Iran. The tone was set less than two weeks into
Trump’s presidency when then-National Security Adviser Michael Flynn responded
to an Iranian missile test. “The Obama Administration failed to respond
adequately to Tehran’s malign actions—including weapons transfers, support for
terrorism, and other violations of international norms,” he said. “As of today,
we are officially putting Iran on notice.”
The recent attacks on ships near a UAE port provided the US
an opportunity to accumulate its troops, naval ships and aircrafts closer to Iran
to warn of a preemptive attack. Though, both Washington and Tehran have been
saying ‘we do not want a war’, it is feared that any adventurous move by any of
the proxies could ignite a spark enough to break a war between two mind sets, Zionist
and Islamisit.
