US likely to face ultimate defeat in Venezuela

Over the years, many of US analysts, politicians, academicians and media pundits have been predicting the imminent fall, overthrow, defeat and replacement of the Venezuelan government. They have been proven wrong on almost all the counts. In fact, most of the US induced regime change efforts have strengthened the support for the Chavez – Maduro government.

A more recent example is the proclamation of the US President that his country was prepared to invade Venezuela. His threat aroused massive popular resistance in defense of national independence, even among discontented sections of t population. Analysts say Venezuela has become the whirlpool of a global struggle which pits the imperial aspirations of Washington against an embattled Venezuela intent on defending its own. A question being asked, why Washington has failed?

The US assault on Venezuela’s state and society includes:

(a)  A military coup in 2002

(b)  A lockout by the executives of the Venezuelan oil company

(c)  The exercise of US political pressure via clients and allies in Europe, South and North America

(d)  Escalating economic sanctions between 2013 – 2019

(e)  Street violence during 2013 – 2019

(f)  Sabotage of the entire electrical system between 2017 -2019

(g)  Hoarding of goods via corporations and distributors from 2014 – 2019

(h)  Subversion of military and civilian institutions 2002 – 2019

(i)  Regional alliances to expel Venezuelan membership from regional organizations

(j)  Economic sanctions accompanied by the seizure of over $10 billion dollars of assets

(k)  Sanctions on the banking system

(l)   US direct intervention including selection and appointment of opposition leaders and ‘dummy’ representatives overseas.

In brief, the US has been engaged for two decades to bring down the Venezuelan government. It combines economic, military, social and media warfare. The US strategy has reduced living standards, undermined economic activity, increased poverty, forced immigration and surged crimes. Despite that the sole surviving super power has failed to dislodge the government and impose a client regime.

Despite the two decades of pressure by the world’s biggest imperial power, which led to the highest rate of inflation and despite the illegal seizure of billions of dollars of Venezuelan assets, the people remain loyal to their government. The reasons are clear and forthright.

The Venezuelan majority has a history of poverty, marginalization and repression, including the bloody massacre of thousands of protestors in 1989. Millions lived in shanty towns, excluded from higher education and health facilities. The US provided arms and advisers to buttress the politicians who now form the greater part of the US opposition to President Maduro. The US- oligarch alliance extracted billions of dollars from contracts from the oil industry.

The second reason for the defeat of the US is the long-term large-scale military support of the Chavez-Maduro governments. Former President Chavez instilled a powerful sense of nationalist loyalty among the military which resists and opposes US efforts to subvert the soldiers.

The Venezuelans government defeated the US-backed coups and lockouts, these victories encouraged the belief that the popular government could resist and defeat the US-oligarch opposition. Victories strengthened confidence in the will of the people.

The cumulative socio-economic benefits consolidate support for the Venezuelan leadership despite the hardships the US induced in recent times. The mass of the people have gained a new life and have a lot to lose if the US- oligarchy return to power. A successful US coup will likely massacre tens of thousands of popular supporters of the government. The bourgeoisie will take its revenge for those who have ruled and benefited at the expense of the rich.

The Venezuelan government retained mass electoral support because of the deep socio-economic changes that entrenched mass support in contrast to the center-left regimes in Argentina, Brazil and Ecuador which won three elections but were defeated by their right-wing opponents, including electoral partners, with a downturn in the economy, and the flight of middle-class voters and parties.

Venezuela linkages with allies in Russia, China and Cuba provided ‘life jackets’ of economic and military support in the face of US interventions, something the center- left governments failed to pursue. Venezuela built regional alliances with nearly half of South America, weakening US attempts to form a regional or US invasion force.

US assault against Venezuela could initiate another proxy war

Reportedly, United States President Trump, Vice President Pence and National Security Adviser John Bolton have escalated threats to launch a war against Venezuela, as large pro- and anti-government demonstrations filled Venezuela’s streets on Saturday.

In an interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation” program that aired before the Super Bowl, Trump reiterated that military intervention “is an option.” Pence assured a crowd of far-right Venezuelan exiles in Miami that “this is no time for dialogue, it is the moment for action, and the time has come to end the Maduro dictatorship once and for all… Those looking on should know this: all options are on the table.”

Bolton, who helped author the playbook that was used to launch the 2003 invasion of Iraq, issued a blunt threat Friday that the US would kill or jail and torture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro if he did not resign. Comparing Maduro to Nicolae Ceaușescu and Benito Mussolini—both of whom were killed—Bolton told right-wing radio host Hugh Hewitt: “The sooner he takes advantage of that [resignation], the sooner he’s likely to have a nice quiet retirement on a pretty beach rather than being in some other beach area like Guantanamo.”

Self-proclaimed “interim president” Juan Guaidó, the US and their allies in South America and Europe are preparing a new provocation aimed at forcing the Venezuelan military to abandon Maduro, with Guaidó announcing that the US will deliver aid at three locations along the Venezuelan border in the coming days.

While Maduro and the Venezuelan military leadership have said they will refuse the aid, the US hopes that images of crowds gathering to receive food and medication will either provoke the military to defect to the opposition and help distribute the aid or provide valuable propaganda footage justifying the need for a “humanitarian” intervention.

As the Council on Foreign Relations’ O’Neil said, “If it [sanctions] doesn’t work in dislodging this regime, then there’s not a lot left in the toolkit besides things like military intervention.”

A military intervention in Venezuela with a population 30 million could kill hundreds of thousands or millions of people and transform Latin America into an imperialist slaughterhouse.

The geopolitical intelligence think tank Stratfor recently noted, “A military intervention could quickly snowball into one of the largest worldwide military operations since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.”

Francisco Toro, a Washington Post columnist and anti-Maduro think tank analyst, told the Council on Foreign Relations gathering that a military intervention would lead to “a kind of Syrian civil war” and confrontation between nuclear-armed powers.

There is definite threat that if US military operation starts against Venezuela, other countries will also move. This may include Brazil moving into the southeast, Colombia into the southwest. Russia to defend its oil interests in Venezuela and Cuba has already intelligence penetration into the Venezuelan armed forces.