"We
expect the oil surplus to widen and average 1.8 million barrels per day in fourth
quarter 2025 through fourth quarter 2026, resulting in a nearly 800 million
barrel rise in global stocks by end 2026," the US investment bank said in
a client note on Tuesday.
It estimated that stored oil in member countries of the
Organization for Economic Co-operation (OPEC) and Development will account for
a third of total global stock or 270 million barrels in 2026. Coupled with
reduced demand in OECD countries, it said this will lower Brent's fair value
from the current mid-US$70s.
Goldman
said Brent prices are likely to remain near those of forward contracts during
the rest of 2025 but fall below those contracts next year as the increase in
OECD stock accelerates.
However, it said potential acceleration in the growth of
Chinese stock to 0.8 million barrels a day from 0.4 million barrels a day in
the year to date would raise the 2026 Brent average by US$6 a barrel versus the
bank's baseline to US$62.
Brent crude futures contracts were trading around US$67 a
barrel in early Asian trade on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude
futures contracts were trading at US$63.
