“Iran does not consider Saudi Arabia as enemy”, Dr. Foad Izadi

Dr. Foad Izadi is an associate professor of American Studies for a doctorate program at the University of Tehran, Faculty of World Studies. Having studied in the United States and has a Doctorate in Mass Communication from Louisiana State University. After his studies in US, he returned to Iran in 2009 and started a teaching profession. During an exclusive interview with the Tehran Times he talked about regional geopolitical situation and Iran’s ties with neighboring countries. Following are the excerpts from his interview. 

Tehran Times: How do you see Iran’s ties with countries of the Persian Gulf? Do you see thawing of relations with Saudi Arabia?

Dr. Foad Izadi: Iran does not consider Saudi Arabia to be an enemy. For Iran the United States and Israel are enemies.  Saudi Arabia is a neighbor and Iran has been trying to improve relations with Saudis, especially since President Rouhani came to power. Rouhani has also tried to reduce tensions with the US government.

The problem is that the Saudis are not interested, especially after (Saudi Crown Prince) MBS came to power and started a confrontational policy. The Saudi policy against Yemen and Qatar has also failed with the MBS leadership. In order to mend ties, Iran’s foreign minister has several times proposed to visit Saudi Arabia.

Iran has no intention for a confrontation with Saudi Arabia. The US tried to follow a divide and rule policy, creating tensions between neighboring countries, using its propaganda tools. The idea here is to replace Iran as the main power in the region with Israel.

They have been successful to certain extent. For example when Iran helped the Syrian government to fight ISIS there was a huge propaganda campaign to try to portray Iran as an occupation force. Saudis play with the price of oil to put pressure on Iran by over-exporting and the end result would be for Iran to suffer.

Tehran Times: What about Iranian crude exports?

Dr. Foad Izadi: Iran is presently exporting crude to some Chinese companies unofficially. Officially the export is zero.

Tehran Times: The UN has described the war in Yemen as the biggest humanitarian crisis since WWII. With the UAE giving signals for withdrawing from the conflict do you see a compromise in the near future?

Dr. Foad Izadi: It is not a decision for Iran. It is a decision the two sides have to make. Iran has four-step proposal: 1) Seize hostilities; 2) Humanitarian aid; 3) Establishing Yemeni-Yemeni dialogue without external interference and 4) Reaching a political solution in regards to the Yemen war.

The basic idea is to make sure that the war ends. The problem with the Saudis is that they know they have lost the war but they don’t know how to save face.

Tehran Times: What was the effect of the Houthi Aramco missile attacks on the Yemen conflict?

Dr. Foad Izadi: Since last year the Yemenis are using more sophisticated weapons. The Yemeni side has asked for a long time to stop the war but the UN was unable to stop hostilities because of American UNSC veto power. So Yemenis started to use force, which is the only language that the Saudis understand. The sooner the Saudis start understanding that the sooner the war will end.

Tehran Times: What is the role of Majlis in foreign affairs and do you think there is any chance for the survival of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA)?

Dr. Foad Izadi: JCPOA is almost dead. The only country that is following JCPOA is Iran. Sooner or later Iran will have to abandon the nuclear deal. Even the Rouhani government is getting tired. Majlis has passed a law after the murder of Soleimani. Now they want to confront the US. After the US pulled out from the JCPOA and the murder of Gen. Soleimani, even the most optimistic MPs are anti-American.

Tehran Times: What about independent candidates. How many in the present Majlis and what do you predict for independent candidates for the next Majlis?

Dr. Foad Izadi: Generally during every Majlis election 1/3rd of the votes are for independent candidates, 1/3 reformist and 1/3 principlist. I don’t think this year will be any different.

Tehran Times: What do you think will be the turnout for the 11th Majlis election and which faction will fare well in the upcoming parliamentary election?

Dr. Foad Izadi: Turn out generally for Majlis is about 55-65 percent. I expect that these elections will follow that norm. The fact is that the Rouhani government’s policies have not paid off, including the nuclear agreement. Domestically, they are facing difficulties due to sanctions and mismanagement and currency fluctuations. So support for reformist camp won’t be as before which will give a chance to the principlists.

Tehran Times: What do you predict for the future now that E3 (European Union trio of Britain, France and Germany) has triggered the dispute mechanism?

Dr. Foad Izadi: According to article 36 of the nuclear agreement starting dispute mechanism doesn’t mean that they will finish it. They can take several steps. The last step would be to re-impose previous UNSC sanctions in which case Iran will exit NPT as well.

Iranians told not to take Trump’s bait and stay calm

A number of former Obama administration officials have quietly urged Iranian government officials to keep their heads cool in the face of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure policy against Tehran.

US officials have reached out to their contacts in the Iranian government, including Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to tell them, “Don’t take Trump’s bait and stay calm”.

Conversations between former Obama officials and Iranian government officials have been ongoing since November 2016. But the recent round of conversations, which took place over the phone and in person over the last two months, came as lines of communication between the US and Iran, through intermediaries in Europe and elsewhere.

Tensions between Iran and the U.S. have grown in recent weeks, especially after the latter deployed an aircraft carrier strike group, B-52 bombers, and 1,500 more American troops in the region, citing unidentified Iranian “threats”. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said, “We are aware that evident elements are trying to put America into a war with Iran for their own goals.” He said US National Security Adviser John Bolton and “other warmongers” are plotting against Iran.

“War would be a disaster for everybody in the region. We hope that wisdom will prevail in Washington, that they do not make this biggest mistake in the region ever. But we are fully prepared for that scenario,” Araqchi said.

Curtailing oil production ‘an agreement of thugs to rip off consumers’

Without mincing my words I will prefer to call recent agreement of OPEC and non-OPEC members to cut output ‘an agreement of thugs to rip off consumers’. They have agreed to cut output but still don’t trust each other. They even go to the extent of calling each other ‘cheater’. Therefore, some of the members are most likely not to abide any production limited. The business will continue as usual because consumption of energy consumption will increase with the commencement of winter. However, the level of consumption will remain dependent on the drop of mercury level.

Let me explain my assertion that the US and Saudi Arabia were partners in taking oil prices up to US$147/barrel. In fact Saudi Arabia fell in the trap because it was overwhelmed by the hike in price. Although, I fell that I am not competent enough to say this, but just can’t resist from saying. Saudi Arabia just did not bother to look at the number of rigs operating, which exceeded 1900 at one time. The quantum increase in US Shale output helped the country (US) in becoming self sufficient in indigenous oil production. The US is no longer dependent on imported oil, though it is still importing low cost oil from Saudi Arabia.

In my previous blogs I have discussed different themes that included 1) pressure on Iran to cut output 2) Saudi Arabia asked to make the biggest cut? 3) Iran not a threat to Saudi Arabia but US Shale, certainly 4) attempts to penalize Iran and Russia have backfired. The scenario prevailing since 2014 can be summed up in one sentence, ‘Saudi Arabia kept on pumping maximum oil to maintain its market share. It may have succeeded in maintaining the share but petro income nosed dived, leading to extensive borrowing.

After the withdrawal of sanction imposed on Iran, Saudi Arabia felt jittery and feared losing its substantial market share. It completely ignored another harsh reality that due to over three decades of economic sanction, Iran’s output could not be increased. Though, economic sanctions were also imposed on Russia, it managed to take its output above 11 million barrels lately. That is the reason it convinced Saudi Arabia to agree to cut output because it believes that collectively two countries (Russia and Saudi Arabia) now enjoys power to maneuver oil price. Both of them want to ensure that Shale production does not increase certain level.

I will also say that geopolitics play a key role in the supply of oil. Some of the most obvious examples are Nigeria, Libya and Iraq. As and when a reduction is desired, output in these countries is disturbed. This time the issue of pipeline in the US has also affected shale output.  Therefore, the readers may also agree with me that oil output and its prices are controlled by a few thugs; they may appear foes but have common agenda, keep the world under their control.