With 4th November 2018, the date for re-imposition of U.S.
sanctions against Iran drawing closer, uncertainty about how much of global oil
supply will be affected is running high. Mixed signals are coming from some of
Iran’s biggest oil customers. Analysts fear that uncertainty is likely to
linger on even after the sanctions become effective. There is a need to
understand the motive behind the US decision.
There is growing consensus that the US decision is based on
achieving three key objectives: 1) weakening Iran economically to stop it from becoming
a regional power. Both the US and Israel have learnt that an economically
strong Iran is the biggest hurdle in maintaining their hegemony in the region,
2) by creating rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the US also succeed in
selling more arms to Saudi Arabia, which has been brainwashed to an extent
where the monarch considers Iran a bigger threat as compared to Israel and 3) the
biggest beneficiary of high oil price is the US that has attained the status of
largest oil producing country.
According to energy sector analysts, if crude price plunge
below US$50/barrel most of the US shale companies will go bankrupt. It is on
record that in the past when crude price touched US$147/barrel the number of
active rigs rose to around 1,600. When the price plunged to less than US$40/barrel
the number of active rigs declined to less than 600. Therefore
One of the objectives of western media, controlled by the
Zionists, is to keep the level of uncertainty high by promoting geopolitical
crises. By keeping level of uncertainty high, speculators are facilitated and
one thing has been proved without any doubt that even the hawkish statements of
the US present keeps oil prices volatile.
This volatility also keeps many economic super powers
subservient to the US. There are credible evidences that the association of
Japanese refiners has suspended its crude oil purchases from Iran and South
Korean refiners have also stopped buying Iranian crude in the hope that
Washington will grant the heavily import-dependent nation a sanction waiver.
Reportedly, India’s largest refiners have not ordered any
Iranian crude for November deliveries, which suggest that India might follow
other countries buying oil from Iran. One can’t ignore a fact that the deadline
for purchasing oil cargoes for November delivery is still a couple of weeks
away. Earlier, India had indicated to use its currency to settle oil transactions
with Iran.
The European Union has come up with a mechanism to continue buying
oil and oil products from Iran, but analysts are skeptical about how effective
it will be. The mechanism basically means transactions will use the barter
principle rather than money—a mechanism the USSR used during the Cold war. Since
a transaction is a transaction, with or without money, the U.S. could expand
sanctions to cover barter deals also.
Some close observers of the situation warn that despite all
the rhetoric from Washington, things in Iran are not as bad as being portrayed
by the western media. The country has the resources to withstand the crisis.
Reportedly Iran has enough to handle 1.85 million bpd in exports, and Iranian
insurers are sure to provide coverage, the uncertainties continue.
After entering into different controversies, the US
president has hit Saudi monarch below the belt by saying that its rule could no
last beyond two weeks without the US support. Analysts say that after facing
defeat in Syria and Iraq, the US seems adamant at dragging Saudi Arabia into
some proxy war and putting all the blame on Iran.
