Shipping’s stellar performance last year was the result of
many factors but overall growth in energy shipping of around 4% was one of the
fundamentals driving the ClarkSea index to a record US$37,253 per day for the
year.
Average earnings for tankers rose by more than 470%, with
VLCCs scoring a record rise of 642%YoY. Medium-range product tankers scored
well too, notching up a 370% increase in rates for a typical 12 year old vessel
– up from US$6,740 a day in 2021 to an average of US$31,775 in 2022.
In contrast, container rates underwent a sharp correction
over the second half of 2022, down from record levels at the start. Market
reports suggest that rates are likely to weaken further and Clarkson notes that
this will coincide with a rise in delivery volumes.
Everything is relative, however, the box market is
still firm in historic terms and the reopening of China could have a positive
impact, Clarkson suggests.
The container and dry bulk sectors are the most vulnerable
to risks from the world economy but uncertainties prevail in other sectors too.
The uncertainties include low orderbooks, the impact of new
environmental regulations from January, as well as other ‘inefficiencies’ and
geopolitical factors, according to Clarksons Research.
The cross-sector ClarkSea Index stood at US$31,539 per day
in early November 2022, significantly below the last year’s average of US$37,548
per day and well down on the 18 successive weeks between March and July when it
exceeded $40,000 per day, levels last seen at the height of the 2000s‘supercycle.
During the first half of the year 2022, the container market
was exceptionally strong and bulker markets were generally firm, the research
firm noted in its most recent market report.
Since then market fundamentals have shifted again. Container
markets softened sharply during September and October 2022, partly due to
faltering demand and lower port congestion. Bulk carrier earnings, meanwhile,
are down by 27% over the second half of the year 2022 as compared to the
first-half average.
On the other hand, energy-related shipping markets strengthened,
with average tanker earning breaking through US$50,000 per day in October 2022,
double the March average.
Ton-mile demand, meanwhile, continues to strengthen as a
result of the Ukraine conflict. The war has also had a dramatic impact on gas
carrier markets, with VLGC earnings at year-to-date highs and LNG carrier rates
at record levels.
The ClarkSea Index rose 3% last week to US$32,482 per day,
up 35% year-on-year, and 134% above the t-year trend. Crude tanker rates
continued to strength, with average VLCC earnings reaching US$86,860 per day,
Clarkson said, the highest level since April 2020. Product tanker rates eased,
meanwhile, but MR earnings still remain firm at an average of US$32,047 per
day.
Bulk carrier rates remain relatively soft, although the
steady decline in Capesize earnings came to a halt, with spot rates rising 41%
week-on-week to US$11,657 per day. Panamax and handy vessels are firmer than other
bulk segments at present but are still only about half of the mid-May figure of
more than US$30,000 per day.
Container rates are also continuing to ease. The Shanghai
Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) slipped 9% week-on-week to 1,443 points,
below end-2020 levels and only 14% above the 2020 average.
