Three weeks ago I wrote an article ‘Brewing turmoil in
Pakistan’s backyard’ and the concluding remarks were, “The fact remains that
none of the country (United States or Iran) wants to get the blame for
initiating a conflict, but it doesn’t mean that the threat of eminent war is
not there. There is a fear that miscalculation or misunderstanding can trigger
confrontation and an outbreak of war. As the US expands its military presence
in the region, the risk of beginning an accidental war rises further.”
The apprehension came true last Thursday when two oil
tankers were attacked and left adrift in the Gulf of Oman. Washington was
prompt in accusing Tehran of being behind a similar incident on 12th
May when four tankers were attacked in the same area, a vital oil shipping
route. Russia was quick to urge caution, saying no one should rush to
conclusions about Thursday’s incident or use it to put pressure on Tehran,
which has denied the US accusations. There were no immediate statements
apportioning blame after Thursday’s incidents, nor any claims of
responsibility.
WHERE IS STRAIT OF HORMUZ LOCATED?
The strait lies between Oman and Iran, It links the Gulf
north of it with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond. It
is 21 miles (33 km) wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping lane just
two miles (three km) wide in either direction. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have sought
to find other routes to bypass the Strait, including building more oil
pipelines.
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
Almost a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait
- some 17.4 million barrels per day (bpd) versus consumption of about 100
million bpd in 2018. OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq
export most of their crude via the Strait. Qatar, the world’s biggest liquefied
natural gas (LNG) exporter, sends almost all of its LNG through the Strait.
CURRENT POLITICAL TENSION
The US has imposed sanctions on Iran aimed at halting its
oil exports. Iran has threatened to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of
Hormuz if the US tries to strangle its economy. The US Fifth Fleet, based in
Bahrain, is tasked with protecting commercial shipping in the area.
MAJOR PAST INCIDENTS
During the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, the two sides sought to
disrupt each other’s oil exports in what was known as the Tanker War.
In July 1988, the US warship Vincennes shot down an Iranian
airliner, killing all 290 aboard, in what Washington said was an accident and
Tehran said was a deliberate attack.
In early 2008, the US said Iranian vessels threatened three
of its Navy ships in the Strait.
In July 2010, Japanese oil tanker M Star was attacked in the
Strait by a militant group called Abdullah Azzam Brigades linked to al Qaeda
claiming responsibility.
In January 2012, Iran threatened to block the Strait in
retaliation for US and European sanctions that targeted its oil revenue in an
attempt to stop Tehran’s nuclear program.
In May 2015, Iranian ships seized a container ship in the Strait
and fired shots at a Singapore-flagged tanker which it said damaged an Iranian
oil platform.
In July 2018, President Hassan Rouhani hinted Iran could
disrupt oil trade through the Strait in response to US calls to reduce Iran’s
oil exports to zero.
In May 2019, four vessels - including two Saudi oil tankers
- were attacked off the UAE coast near Fujairah, one of the world’s largest
bunkering hubs, just outside the Strait of Hormuz.
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