Pakistan’s placement in grey list by FATF is nothing but arm twisting

Reportedly Pakistan’s name has been added to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) "Grey-list". The overwhelming reaction to this move is being termed "arm-twisting" to add to the woes of the country already suffering from serious balance of payment crisis. A point worth exploring is that there is no official FATF terminology segregating countries into grey or black lists, Pakistan has never been identified as a potential risk to the international financial system, even after 9/11 and often being accused of supporting the various militant groups.

I am being inclined to refer to a report by Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities. The brokerage house has taken a cues from the    2008-14 period (public identification/monitoring status), a termed the report a non-event in terms of crucial flashpoints on the macro-front, namely: 1) Foreign ownership of equities, 2) economic assistance, 3) workers’ remittances and 3) foreign exchange reserves. Reflective of the same, the benchmark index has recovered strongly in the recent past. Post clarity regarding the FATF decision (expected by Saturday 30th June). Investor’s risk-reward profile would soon align with more dominant economic (interest rate hikes, further devaluation prospects) and ongoing electioneering.

In the backdrop of the US foreign policy with narrowing space for Pakistan and post the first plenary meeting of FATF in Feb 2018, news reports started highlighting that FATF has decided to place Pakistan back on its watch list for AML/CFT weaknesses.  The perception in Pakistan is that such news reports have been more disparaging with a tinge of exaggeration (particularly in regional and local outlets) which are not only baseless and not rooted in published reports of international organizations of repute (OECD, WB, IMF and Basel Institute of Governance). However, parsing through all FATF publications CY18TD including documentation released by the FATF after its February 2018 meeting show that Pakistan is not mentioned at all, particularly in a negative light or deficient category. That said, Pakistan has not taken the threat of being included in the watch-list seriously as it has since then taking action against non-complaints, introduce various legislations, reforms and protocols to strengthen its AML/CFT framework.

One of the immediate response is that international standards are not created equal: On a broader note, comparing Pakistan's rankings on similar global international AML/CFT benchmarks by global agencies (Basel Institute, OECD), brokerage house finds domestic regulations (post 2015) stringent enough to counter long-term structural deficiencies (grey financial flows, hawala/hundi, low financial inclusion and sub-par lending practices). The Recent efforts by the GoP have been more proactive in market by Pakistan's inclusion in the OECD's Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax matters giving weight to GoP's measures (amnesty schemes, increasing declarations of foreign assets, raising the tax net).

Despite Pakistan’s placement in "Grey-list", foreign participation is largely expected to remain immune. Removing outliers (early 2009 period post market freeze), foreign ownership of equities gradually increased during the review period ranging between a little over 6% in 2008 to over 8% by end-2014. In absolute Pak Rupee /US$ terms, foreign ownership increased considerably during this period.

Economic Assistance is likely to continue keeping in view the past practices. Over the years, disbursements by bilateral/multilateral agencies have averaged US$1.3 billion to US$2.3 billion annually (excluding the 3-year SDR4.4bn/US$6.2bn IMF program approved in September 2013). Even though disbursements remained weak during the 2011-2013 period, it is unlikely that Pakistan's status under the FATF had a tangible bearing on economic assistance. That said, overall assistance (including capital mobilization through floating foreign bonds, commercial borrowing and the IMF) improved substantially during the 2008-2014 period.          .

Worker's Remittances continue to play an important role in containing current account deficit, despite ever increasing imports and paltry exports. Stringent KYC/AML/CFT protocols have certainly increased the cost of transactions, inward remittances increased substantially over the years, indicating that inclusion in the FATF grey list may not have a material impact on the cost of inward remittances.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves increased to US$18.6 billion at the end of FY15 from US$11.3 billion in FY08. This also indicates that the Government of Pakistan (GoP) was able to keep an adequate level to support imports and other official outflows. Reserves also received a boost in FY13 after Pakistan signed a 3-year IMF program worth US$6.2 billion.   

Risk of Pakistan facing economic sanctions would include a reconsideration of all business relationships with Pakistan by global financial institutions and any attempt to put Pakistan along with North Korea and Iran is totally absurd. Additionally, parsing through global financial standard authorities rankings, Pakistan is given an AML index score of 6.64 (out of ten where lower is better) giving 4/46 rank in South Asia/Globally out of 6/146 countries by The Basel Institute for Governance. Moreover, recent efforts by the GoP have been more proactive in addressing these deficiencies where Pakistan's inclusion in the OECD's Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax matters (news reports indicate information sharing with tax authorities to commence from September'18) gives weight to GoP's "big-ticket".

Having a strong faith in the robustness of Pakistan’s financial system and the ongoing efforts to improve it the country’s placement in "Grey-list" is nothing but "arm-twisting". It is more than obvious that the US policies towards Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, China, EU countries and NAFTA members are aimed at establishing its hegemony around the world.

Pakistan Democracy on the Rough Terrain

On Friday, the last day of the week ended 6th July 2018, the accountability court announced its verdict imposing severe punishments and hefty fines on Nawaz Sharif (elected prime minister of Pakistan for the third time) and his family members. The decision is likely to severely impact general elections scheduled for 25th July 2018. There is a saying that history repeats itself. I am obliged to offer readers one of my articles written as back as April 2015. Its title was “Pakistan Democracy on the Rough Terrain”. To read details please click http://shkazmipk.com/democracy-in-pakistan/

Talk about re-imposition of sanctions on Iran an attempt to create storm in a teacup

Lately, the western media, controlled and run by Zionists, has been talking about re-imposition of economic sanctions on Iran, as 12^th May is approaching. The move has been initiated by the US president and many ‘me too’ are trying to please him. The crusade is led by Israeli prime minister, who is licking wounds caused to Israel in Lebanon by Hezbollah. The US is also adamant at taking revenge of its defeat in Syria, where it also faced Hezbollah. The west is never tired of accusing Hezbollah being supported by Iran but it is in no way part of Islamic Revolutionary Grads of Iran.   

The US commentators have very cunningly convinced OPEC led by Saudi Arabia to curtail crude oil output which has resulted in 1) substantial increase in crude oil price and 2) significant hike in the output by the US and Russia. At present, Saudi Arabia has slipped to third position in terms of daily oil output. The US has also emerged as one of the major exporter of crude oil. Therefore, Iran with a daily export of 2.6 million barrel has become ‘of no consequence’. Even if export of oil from Iran is stopped completely completely, it would be compensated by other producers very quickly.     

As a daily ritual, I have to write a few lines on commodities market and factors driving their prices. The most bizarre part is writing about the factors driving crude oil prices. The usual jargons used are increase/decrease in rig count in the US, movement in US stock piles, turmoil in Venezuela and MENA (countries including Iraq, Libya, Nigeria). Little reference is made to investment by hedge funds.  

I still remember once taking part in a live panel discussion on factors driving crude oil prices (more than ten years ago) I had said, “The price of crude oil may be driven by any factor, but certainly not by demand and supply”.  I could see the signs of disgust on the face of moderator. After the show was over he even went to the extent of saying, “Mr. Kazmi, today you said something which sounded totally absurd and I could have responded. However, I kept quiet and gave you benefit of doubt.”

Moral of the story is developed economies, through hedge funds make millions of dollars through movement in crude oil prices. To achieve their target they often breach agreements. Super powers are notorious for breaching the agreements to achieve their ulterior motives. Therefore, re-imposition of sanction on Iran will not be a surprise but an example of yet another blatant violation. However, they must not forget that even stopping oil export from Iran completely will neither make an immediate difference for Iran nor sky rocket the oil prices.

Making Pakistan hub of Islamic Finance by 2025

On the inaugural day of conference Dr. Miftah Ismail Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance and Economic Affairs said the Ministry of Finance would soon set up a separate division for the promotion of Islamic banking in Pakistan. He was the Chief Guest at a two-day World Islamic Finance Forum (WIFF-2018). The international forum was organized by Institute of Business Administration’s Centre for Excellence in Islamic Finance IBA-CIEF in collaboration with key partners. The theme was “Expanding the Footprint of Islamic Finance: Innovation, Fintech and Regulations.”

In his visionary note, Shaikh Muhammad Taqi Usmani Chairman, Shariah Board of Accounting and Auditing Organization for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) said the people of Pakistan origin were holding key positions in Islamic banking industry around the world, making contribution in developing regulatory framework and above all developing products that would meet the emerging needs of trade and industry. He urged the government to take concrete steps for making the economy Riba (interest) free. He also pointed out that Islamic financial institutions have ample liquidity and the government should work for creating new avenues for its deployment in remunerative options. He suggested that the ruling party should also include in its election manifesto that Riba would be eradicated totally from economy at the earliest.

Chairman AAOIFI Board of Trustees, Bahrain Shaikh Ebrahim Bin Khalifa Al Khalifa said it was heartening to note that Pakistan was striving to become another hub of Islamic finance. The country has all the basic ingredients — a population of 200 million predominantly Muslims, a robust banking and finance sector, vibrant agriculture, industrial and services sectors.

On the occasion were present the top officials of the apex regulators – State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan, Deputy Governors of the central bank, Jameel Ahmad and Shamsul Hasan talked about the central bank’s initiatives for the to promote Islamic banking in the country. The progress made over the last decade has been encouraging that has facilitated in achieving the target. They were also of the view that making Pakistan hub of Islamic finance would not be difficult.

Irfan Siddiqui, President Meezan Bank requested the federal government to set a target to acquire at least 25 per cent of the local funding through Islamic banking as Islamic financial institutions have ample liquidity and limited avenues for investment.

In his key note address, Dr. Ishrat Husain, Chairman, IBA-CIEF talked about the progress made by Islamic banking in Pakistan. He was of the view that the progress made during last one decade was enormous but new products need to be introduced to provide fresh impetus for growth.

IBA-CEIF Director, Ahmed Ali Siddiqui, welcoming the delegates, said the Centre had emerged as a regional platform for excellence in Islamic finance. He said focus areas of CEIF included development of Islamic finance professionals and new human resources talent pool through industry linkages and international collaborations.

Two of the closed-door meetings deserve special mention, though details discussed were not made public. In the first session players and regulators discussed details that could help in making capital market and mutual funds Shariah compliant. The issue of financial inclusion and outreach were the two important themes to be discussed at length. The second session was between Sharaih scholars and regulators for evolving regulatory frame work that can help in developing products to meet the needs of different income strata and those having different risk appetite.

Yet another initiative was presentation of research papers discussing contemporary issues. One of the sessions deserves a specific mention where lending to farmers was discussed. At present bulk of the loans are extended to farmers against passbook or the landownership document. This process mostly benefits the feudal lords. In this discussion the issue of warehouse receipt financing was also debated. However, it was evident that unless modern warehouses and collateral management companies are established warehouse receipt financing may not be possible. Authors of selected papers were awarded cash prizes.

The takeaways of the concluding remarks of Dr. Ishrat Husain were: 1) creation of Shariah Board at Ministry of Finance, 2) borrowing for infrastructure development projects through flotation of Rupee and Dollar denominated Sukuks, 3) focus on the development of Fintechs for extending outreach of banks and ensure financial inclusion and 4) development of alternative delivery channels.

     

Energy Crisis in Pakistan: Fact or Fiction

If one looks at the history of power sector in Pakistan, a few points are clear. These include: 1) a myth that the country has been persistently suffering due to the shortage of energy products, 2) the successive power policies have been have been introduced to serve the interest of local and overseas investors, 3) blatant theft of electricity and gas has been going on with the connivance of employees of utility companies, 4) regulatory authorities have failed in protecting the interest of consumers and remained subservient to the incumbent governments.

Energy shortage

Pakistan is blessed with an enormous potential of hydel power generation. According to the experts Mighty River Indus along has the potential to generate more than 40,000MW electricity per annum. Another 10,000MW electricity per annum can be generated from smaller hydel plants (run of the river type facilities which does not require construction of dams/reservoirs. In addition to that 50,000MW electricity can be produced annually from Thar coal. However, at present total hydel generation is around 8,000MW, which goes down when water level drops in dams. Thermal power plants (mostly owned and operated by the private) have the lion’s share in the total generation. The share of coal and nuclear power plants in the total electricity generated has remained minuscule. Though, a lot is being talked about changing the energy mix and curtailing use of gas for power generation, a little success has been achieved.

Serving vested Interest

Major hydel power generation facilities, i.e. Warsak, Mangla, Tarbella and Ghazi Brotha are located in the northen parts of the country and cater to the needs to KPK and upper Punjab. Karachi is hub of trading and industrial hub and it is totally dependent on thermal power generation. The city has 10% of the total population of the country but gets nothing from low cost electricity generated from hydel power plants. To be precise, K-Electric supplies electricity to some parts of Sindh and Baluchistan. If transmission of hydel electricity to Karachi is difficult or uneconomical, quota allocation of gas to K-electric should be doubled. Karachi is surviving on self generated electricity, the city has a latent demand of 5,000MW, whereas K-Electric is capable of meeting only half of this demand. One can still recall that in the early nineties E-Electric used to export electricity to Punjab. HUBCO was constructed to primarily meet Karachi’s demand, but it was ‘hijacked’ by WAPDA for meeting Punjab’s demand.

Blatant Theft

Blatant theft of electricity and gas been been going on for ages with the connivance of utilities. On top of all some of the parts of Pakistan are provided free of cost electricity. One may recall that at one time the average T&D losses of electric utilities were as high as 40%. Lately, gas UFG, which mostly comprise of theft hover a little less than 10%. On top of this, utility companies carry the load of billions of rupees of receivables, the probability of recovery is very low. According to some analysts, if K-Elecric pays off its outstanding dues, SSGC will be able to pay off almost all the payable amount to E&P companies. Containing theft or recovering outstanding dues does not require any rocket science, but a firm commitment. However, utilities fail completely helpless because of the pressure of political and linguistic groups. It is also necessary to put on record that utilities don’t provide connections, taking refuge behind non-availability of electricity/gas, but are prompt in providing ‘temporary connections, which are often without meters. Analysts term this ‘offical kunda’.

Regulatory Authorities

The Government of Pakistan (GoP) initiated the process of liberalization, deregulation and privatization. Under this policy, the private sector was encouraged to establish industries, which remained the exclusive domain of the state for decades and it was also offered the stake in state owned enterprises along with management control. Prior to that the World Bank has refused to lend more money to WAPDA and the shift in policy gave birth to HUBCO and other IPPs. 

IMF Recipe

Many analysts have the consensus that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the lender of last resort, but its recipes are not aimed at enabling any country to ‘stand on its own feet.’ Often the country is trapped in a vicious cycle of borrowing. However, the advantage is that if the country succeeds in developing its own home grown plan and meeting the condition imposed by the IMF, it may overcome the balance of payment crisis. 

Pakistan has a long history of remaining under the IMF support program. In one of the latest country report, the Fund has once again highlighted the need to introduce structural reforms for the power sector. These weaknesses identified are: 1) the persistence of circular debt, 2) DISCOs still operating under the state control, 3) high T&D losses, 4) failure to follow corporate governance and 5) lack of the mechanism for passing on input cost adjustments to end consumers.

Emphasizing US$55 billion in planned investments as a part of CPEC, the Fund anticipates improved economic activity made up of 19 Chinese sponsored power sector investments (US$17.7 billion) and non-CPEC energy projects (US$25.4 billion). Mode of financing for energy projects has been bifurcated into: 1) direct borrowing and investment from Chinese financial institutions, and 2) financing of projects by private domestic sponsors as well as government backed borrowing from multilateral lenders.

A detailed analysis of the power sector shows: 1) the country has enormous resources to produce low cost electricity, 2) if pilferage is contained cash flow of DISCOs will improve and 3) circular debt issue will be resolved. Appropriately managed conventional sources of power generation can help in meeting the electricity demand and there may not be an urgent need to invest in alternative sources of power generation.