Pakistan: Next government not a bed of roses

The unofficial results indicate that PML-N, headed by Mian Nawaz Sharif has won the largest number of National Assembly seats and absolute majority in Punjab Provincial Assembly. PPP and MQM collectively have won the largest number of seats in Sindh and will most likely form the government in the province.

However, the number of seats won by PML-N in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwah are not enough to form government at its own. It will have to form alliance with other parties. Political pundits forecast that managing Pakistani affairs may not be as easy as was perceived by PML-N as PTI is not likely to be a ‘friendly opposition’.

According to certain quarters Taliban and its offshoot TTP has extended unconditional support to PML-N and it may not be easy find to develop cordial working relations with the US administration. The continued tilt towards Taliban/TTP will not bode well in achieving the confidence level.

The US mantra of ‘do more’ will force PML-N to do some of the things that may not be endorsed by its vote bank; two of the thorns are Afia Sisiddiqui and drone attacks. However, the prevailing situation offers an opportunity to PML-N to develop working relationships on new terms and conditions.

At this juncture Pakistan and India also don’t enjoy very cordial relationship.  Mian Sahib ‑ himself of Kashmiri origin ‑ has been saying that Musharraf regime had put Kashmir issue on the back bumper. While Pakistan has been declining to grant India MFN status till resolution of Kashmir issue, watching Mian Sahib reproaching Pakistan’s rival will be worth watching. On his back are Jihadis who don’t approve granting India MFN status.

Experts had expressed apprehensions when Mian Sahib opposed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. It was obvious that Mian Sahib didn’t want the credit to go to Asif Zardari, but he had certainly offended time test friend Iran. Keeping in view Mian Sahib’s tilt towards India, he is more likely to buy gas and electricity from India rather than Iran.

At present Pakistan suffers from three deficits i.e. budget deficit, trade deficit and trust deficit. Keeping in view statements of Shahbaz Sharif overcoming energy crisis may take up to three years. It is on record that PML-N chose to spend billions of rupees on metro bus project, distribution of free lap tops and Sasti Roti but didn’t take any initiative to overcome energy crisis in the province where it enjoyed majority and also ruled for five years.

Historically, Mian Sahib has never enjoyed cordial relationship with MQM and his statement is on record ‘in case we come into power military courts will be established in Karachi’. The hint was towards punishing MQM and he had dented the party in the past.

A question being asked is, can PML-N and MQM establish working relations, at least? The outcome will dependent on the attitude of PML-N as well as MQM. Some of the political pundits say ‘MQM after having remained in power for decades just can’t afford to sit on opposition benches’.

It is also feared that soon after coming in power PML-N will initiate ‘operation cleanup’ in Karachi that could lead to strike calls and suspension of industrial and commercial activities in Karachi. Over the years Mian Sahib has been accusing MQM for booty collection, land grabbing and making Karachi a hostage. Therefore, sharing power with the ‘accused’ will not be an easy task.

The top rivals ANP, MQM and PPP likely to form government in Sindh but sit on opposition benches in National Assembly could give real tough time to PML-N. Added to this will be PTI’s pressure on three issues, eliminating corruption, maintaining law and order and stopping drone attacks.

Following its tradition PML-N is most likely to introduce policies to attain ‘political mileage’ adding to budget deficit, which may not be approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Though, the Fund has hinted towards extending US$5 billion under Extended Financing Facility, the terms and conditions are yet to be finalized.

Pakistan Election: Will a difference be made?

Today (Saturday) Pakistan went on poll to elect the next National and Provincial Assemblies, those who will rule them over the next five years. Contrary to the initial fears, polling went reasonably well, except in a few constituencies or polling stations. One could see posts on Facebook about irregularities, but mostly pertaining to a few constituencies of Karachi, little update from other provinces.

A point worth mentioning is that turnout was higher as compared to previous elections, may be people have realized that if they wish to bring a change in Pakistan they have to cast their vote. In one of bomb blasts in Quaidabad in Karachi, having Pakhtun concentration about a dozen people died in Karachi.

Polling is over even after extended period in most of the constituencies. Interestingly from Karachi MQM, JI and some other religious parties have lodges complaint of rigging and are demanding reelection. However, the overall consensus is that barring less than a dozen constituencies polling has been held in fair, free and transparent manner.

Observers are of the view that any attempt to mar credibility of the polling held or non-acceptance of the results could create unrest in the country, an objective enemies of Pakistan are trying to achieve. They initially threatened people to stay away from this non-Shariah compliant system but their argument carried no weight as they declared not to stop, religious parties, PML-N, JI and PTI from participating in the polls.

Now people are desperately waiting for the announcement of results. All the television channels are running special election transmissions to provide the updates. Till official results are announced, it is difficult to say which party can attain even simple majority.

Most of the political pundits are hinting towards ‘hung parliament’ in which no party will get majority and the outcome could be another ‘coalition’ government. A point to watch is has the youth made any difference?

This time youngsters became active and many extended support to Imran Khan’s PTI. The contest was close between PML-N and PTI in Punjab. Urban Sindh extended support to MQM and PPP remained docile in urban as well as rural areas.

Surprisingly, Bilawal, Chairman PPP (son of President Zardari and Benazir Bhutto) preferred to remain in door due to life threats. 

ANP came under attack in Sindh as well as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

In Balochistan, nationalist parties are likely to get reasonable number of seats.

Religious parties formed an alliance but JI and JUI-F fielded their own candidates.

JUI-F candidates despite being supporter of Taliban came under attacks.

Imran Khan got severely injured due to fall from a forklift, trying to raise him to a 20 feet high stage.

Sharif Brothers and their dynasty contested on various seats.

Son of former premier Gillani was kidnapped.

Pakistan: Are Taliban used by external powers?

The declaration of an open war by Threek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against three political parties, ANP, MQM and PPP that ruled Pakistan for five years is an open challenge to the Government of Pakistan (GoP) as well as the citizens. 

A point of even bigger concern is its support for PML-N, PTI and JUI-F, but recent attacks on JUI-F in Balochistan perplex many.

A point to be remembered is that Taliban was the term coined for Mujahideen that fought against USSR with the support of United States. However, after 9/11 Taliban were declared a foe by the United States for providing safe haven to OBL in Afghanistan.

Analysts often mix Taliban and TTP. These are two separate entities having different objectives but often alleged for cooperating with each other when it comes to attacking sensitive installations or killing innocent citizens in Pakistan.

TTP is often termed an indigenous phenomenon that primarily challenged the writ of GoP in the northern areas of the country. It may have got support from foreign militants fighting in Afghanistan but its primary target has been Pakistan Army. Its other targets have been Shia community and lately ANP and MQM.

Some of the cynics say that TTP phantom has been blown out of proportion and they raise fingers towards yet another banned outfit Jundullah, once headed by Abdul Reham Riki, who was arrested and hanged by Iran for killing its key people and attacking sensitive installations. One of the conspiracy theories is that Jundullah has become active once again and it is using TTP name to mislead people of Pakistan as well as intelligence agencies.

In the past, Jundullah had emerged the biggest champion of Rights of Baloch, both in Pakistan and Iran. It was often alleged that Jundullah was getting funds and arms from foreign elements that wanted to cause collateral damages to Pakistan and Iran. It must have not been easy for the perpetrators to swallow the bitter pill that many of the Baloch leaders that have been living in self exile for a long time have decided to participate in general elections being held on 11^th May.

The reasons one could suspect resurgence of Jundullah are: 1) attacks on JUI-F candidates and 2) blowing up of gas transmission lines in Balochistan. This belief also gets some credence because the sole purpose of attacking ANP, MQM and PPP is to create a reason for the postponement of general elections. Pakistanis have been wondering why any militant group or political party should be keen in deferring election in the country?

One can recall that even prior to the creation of an interim set up some of the quarters were suggesting extending term of this arrangement for three years but a question was also raised, who could be the beneficiaries of the proposed set up? The cynics attributed this to withdrawal of Us-led Nato troops from Afghanistan via Pakistan. It is often said that the need of the time is ‘putting in place a team on which Nato countries, including US have complete faith.

The game plan faced some risks when anti United States sentiments flared up again in Pakistan. Now there is an overwhelming feeling in Pakistan that despite fighting proxy war for the United States, the mantra of ‘do more’ remains load. Pak-US relations got a big jolt when Pakistan despite warned of dire consequences decided to go ahead with Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.

Now even a man on street is asking if India is allowed to construct Chabahar port, road and rail link up to Central Asia, buy oil and also construct urea manufacturing plant in Iran, why pressure on Pakistan not to buy oil and gas from Iran? 

Pakistan: Is the country pushed into anarchy?

The blasts taking place in Karachi during this week seem part of the grand conspiracy to plunge the country deep into anarchy and challenging writ of the government.  Bringing economic activities to grinding halt in Karachi is aimed at adding to the woes for the country facing serious balance of payment crisis.

The anti Pakistan forces, in a bid to sabotage general election scheduled on 11th May, have been attacking meeting of MQM, ANP and the latest victim is PPP. On Saturday election camps of MQM and PPP, two major parties of Sindh came under three bombings attacks in Karachi killing at least five people and leaving more than 40 wounded.

Earlier, at least two people were killed and more than 25 were injured in two separate blasts near the MQM election office in the city’s Orangi Town area. The first bomb exploded outside a MQM election office and the second one outside a nearby Shia Imambargah in the area.

The twin explosions were very loud and were heard far away and damaged the nearby buildings and vehicles. A complete blackout was reported in the area after the explosions. Saturday’s blast raised the number to five terrorist attacks in the metropolis, leading death at least 26 people in these attacks. This prompted observing Sunday as yet another mourning day and bringing industrial and commercial activities to grinding halt.

Although no group claimed responsibility of both the blasts but the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) vowed to target PPP, ANP and MQM. The banned outfit had claimed responsibilities of the Thursday and Friday attacks, targeting MQM and ANP. Around 11 people were killed and more than 50 injured when a bomb blast hit the election meeting of ANP candidate Bashir Jan in Karachi on Friday.

As I have been saying that the sole objective of perpetrators is to kill people, at least four people were injured when suspected militants lobbed a hand grenade at an election office of Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) in Sibi area of Balochistan on Saturday. Meanwhile, the militants hurled a hand grenade at the office of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) candidate in Panjgoor area of Balochistan.

The perpetrators want to ensure deferring election by undertaking killing and terrorizing people so that they don’t come out of their houses to cast their votes. Some of the fanatics have already termed casting vote un-Islamic and also warned those not following their instructions can face stern consequences.

When MQM announce to observe mourning day life in Karachi comes to grinding halt. It is true that the party loves its members and if a few are assassinated, it requests all to observe mourning day. Not only areas where it has a large vote bank, but where its followers live just don’t open shops and schools and public transport also remain off road. This is a great sign of unity but its darker side also needs to be looked at.

First and most important,when MQM workers and supporters are killed and educational and commercial activities in its areas of concentration also remain closed it is ultimate loss of its vote bank, mostly belongs to middle and lower middle class. Millions of people that worker on daily wages faces starvation. When factories remain closed no revenue is collected and disturbance in clearing of goods at ports, disrupt supplies throughout the country.

Historically, those sitting on opposition benches give strike calls but it does not suit MQM as it remained in power for nearly two decades and also enjoy access to power corridors. It should be influencing the district management and law enforcing agencies to ensure peace throughout the country. It has the largest ‘street power’ and youth which should be keeping a watch on criminals.

It is in common knowledge that criminals come to Karachi to accomplish tasks given to them. These include killing of people, undertaking blasts through improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and kidnapping of people for ransom. These elements have permanent hideouts in areas of ethnic concentration and also use residents of the areas as ‘human shield’. Once their mission is accomplished they go back to their home towns and wait for the next ‘assignment’.

It is also on record that arms are also brought into Karachi from up country and sold openly. To the utmost surprise there are ‘rent a weapon’ shops in certain areas. Ironically, law enforcing agencies are not allowed to undertake any operation in certain areas by the political parties, which draw strength from these unscrupulous elements. Even if a few are rounded up, their ‘godfathers’ arrange the bails and get them free. In the worst scenario if brought to courts of law, they are acquitted due to ‘non-availability of credible evidence’.

Strange is the attitude of law enforcing agencies that fail to arrest those claiming responsibility of blasts and killings innocent citizens, most notorious are Taliban, TTP and LeJ. It is on record that Taliban had said ‘we would free Karachi which has become hostage of MQM’ and have also claimed responsibility of killing MQM activists.

It is often said that now militant groups are embedded in law enforcing agencies and one has to believe that. According to some estimates from 25,000 to 50,000 people have been killed in Pakistan by these militants and extremists groups but hardly any killer has been hanged. Some cynics even go to the extent of saying that these accused remain in jail and spend most luxurious lives for years and are finally acquitted.

I one of the TV shows Faisal Abidi of PPP has raised a question why activists of PPP,MQM and ANP are being targeted and members of JI, PML-N and other religious parties are not being attacked. He himself also provided the reply that those parties not been attacked enjoy very cordial relationship with these banned outfits, which are also rewarded appropriately.

Pakistan: Eight Blasts Rattle Three Provinces

The topic of my last blog posted a week ago was “Election and Bloodshed Threat” in which I had reiterated that the perpetrators getting arms and funds from abroad want to plunge the country into anarchy and then into civil war.

I had also highlighted threat of bloodshed during general elections scheduled for 11^th May 2013. Prior to the commencement of election campaign in Pakistan, experts had expressed apprehensions that corner meeting of politicians may come under terrorist attacks.

Many of the readers of my blog sent me text messages that I was trying to spread unnecessary chaos. Discussion with my media friends on Tuesday morning once again made me jittery and by the evening a few blasts rocked Karachi and Quetta. Over the last 24 hours at least eight separate blasts have created havoc in three provinces of the country and raised fears of deteriorating law and order situation as the May 11 polls draw nearer.

The attacks since Tuesday evening in Quetta, Karachi, Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan have led to 11 deaths and have left up to 75 wounded. The latest attack on Wednesday targeted a police station on the outskirts of Quetta, the second blast in the provincial capital since this morning and the sixth since yesterday.

The blast raised the total death toll since yesterday in Quetta alone to six, with up to 60 injured, at least 15 have been injured since this morning. According to police, unknown attackers on motorcycles lobbed a hand-held bomb on the Kechi Baig police station in Quetta’s Sariab area around midday.

Earlier this morning, 13 people including two children were injured in a blast outside a private hospital in Gailani road area of the city. On Tuesday, four explosions left six people dead and up to 45 injured in the city.

Banned extremist outfit, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LJ), had claimed responsibility of Tuesday’s attacks, as usual, though this time target was not Hazara community.

Late Tuesday, militants also attacked an election camp of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) in Karachi. The blast left at least five people dead and 15 others injured. This led to virtual close down of country’s commercial capital on Wednesday at the call of the MQM in protest of the killings.

Earlier on Wednesday, an explosion near the house of a local Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) leader injured three people in Peshawar’s Sarki Gate area. Meanwhile, two remotely detonated roadside bombs exploded in Dera Ismail Khan this morning when the convoy of election candidate from PK-68 constituency Israrullah Khan Gandapur was passing through the area, no casualties was reported.

One may recall that some of the quarters have been demanding handing over control to Pakistan Army on the Election Day, but it seems the time has come to demand immediate deployment of troops. This is being demanded because some of the quarters have been demanding deferring election for three years, at least or till withdrawal on Nato forces from Afghanistan is complete.

No political party, be it big or small, wants election to be delayed. Therefore, one has the reasons to believe that elements getting funds and arms from abroad can be solely held responsible for the blasts and killings.

 Pakistan: Election and Bloodshed Threat

In my various blogs I have highlighted involvement of foreign hands in sabotage and killings. I have also been saying that the perpetrators are getting arms and funds from abroad and their only objective is to plunge the country into anarchy and then to civil war.

I have also highlighted threat of bloodshed during general elections scheduled for 11^th May 2013. My opinion was based on fast changing local and regional political landscape in which the so called rebels are funded and supplied arms by those who wish to create their hegemony in South Asia, Middle East and North Africa.

Prior to the commencement of election campaign in Pakistan, experts had expressed apprehensions that corner meeting of politicians may come under terrorist attacks. These apprehensions have started coming true as meeting of ANP, PML-N and MQM have been attacked, resulting in killing of political leaders and injury of dozens of people.

Attacks on ANP leaders and followers were anticipated, because Taliban had done this earlier. In fact ANP’s participation in coalition government at federal and provincial levels was not liked by those who prefer to call themselves Taliban. They have been challenging writ of the government at federal as well as provincial levels. They have emerged the worst opponents of ANP and MQM who enjoy support of their vote banks in KP and Sindh.

It is on record that Taliban had expressed their determination to free Karachi from the hostage of MQM, may be they have the same sentiments for ANP. However, it has been expressed repeatedly that religious extremists enjoy very cordial relationship with the PML-N. Taliban animosity with ANP and MQM is not a secret, especially because both the parties have been condemning the attitude of Taliban. In fact no civilized person can endorse killing of innocent people. It becomes all the more disgusting when women and children come under attacks.

Taliban don’t consider most of the Pakistanis ‘good practicing Muslims’ and just want to punish them. In Karachi MQM has emerged the biggest opponent of killing of people on the basis of religious faith. Taliban-MQM rift became more intense when the later decided to support Hazaras. In fact one of the leaders of MQM, Manzar Imam was assassinated soon after he played a key role in organizing protest rallies against killing of Hazaras in Karachi. Taliban mistook him as Shia, whereas he was a Sunni.

One of the conspiracy theories is that Taliban is ‘B’ team of CIA, which wants to create unrest in by propagating ‘Shia Sunni Conflict’ theory in Pakistan. In fact in Pakistan no one buys this trash as the motive of perpetrators has become evident, who have been killing Shias as well as Sunnis as they want to create a hupe that the two groups are blood thirsty.

Some cynics term killing of political activist part of the conspiracy to defer general elections in Pakistan. Taliban know their weak position and just don’t expect their nominees or even supporters to win seats in general elections. Therefore, they wish to terrorize people and keep them away from casting their vote on the Election Day. Taliban seem to be supporters of those groups who also don’t want election to take place in Pakistan.

One may ask who doesn’t want elections to be held on 11th May 2013. This is not diabolic thinking as whispers had started even before the interim set up was put in place. Rumors mongers have been talking about bloodshed in parts of Sindh, KP and Balochistan. Initially it was feared that nationalist parties of Sindh and Balochistan would boycott the election, but after Baloch leaders living in exile decided not only to take part in election but also reached Pakistan.

If all the political parties of Pakistan decide to participate in the election process, it will be a big defeat of those who are resisting holding general elections in Pakistan. Opponents of general election know that the silent majority will decide the fate. Therefore, they are terrorizing people to keep them away from casting their vote.

Pak-US relations: Saga of Love and Hate

The recent news about suspension of support to Pakistan’s armed forces don’t bode well for the two countries. Pressure from the general public is rising on the Government of Pakistan to pull itself out of proxy war in Afghanistan.

Over the years Afghanistan has been living on aid and any cut in inflow could lead to hike in opium cultivation in the country. Poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has been increasing for a third year in a row and is heading for a record high, the United Nations said in a report released on Monday.

Afghanistan is the world's largest producer of opium, the raw ingredient in heroin, and last year provided about 75 percent of the global crop — a figure that may jump to 90 per cent this year due to increased cultivation.

The southern region is expected to remain the largest opium cultivating region in Afghanistan in 2013. Poppy cultivation in Helmand and Kandahar, the main opium cultivating provinces in the country, is expected to increase and Helmand is expected to retain its status as the largest opium cultivating province in the country.

This poses two major threats because illicit shipment may pass though Pakistan and amounts received in return may also be used for financing terrorist activities in the country. The incidents of sabotage and killing have witnessed sharp increase with the commencement of election campaign. Three major incident have already reported aiming ANP, PML-N and MQM candidates.

Historically Pak-US relationships have witnessed ‘love and hate’ spells. Pakistani experts are of the consensus that the relations have remained subservient to US foreign policy. Closer examination of the two most recent eras, Ziaul Haq regime spread over one decade and Pervez Musharraf rule also spread over a decade are the proof of this statement.

During these two eras Pakistan remained a need of the United States because of Afghanistan. As the time for withdrawal of US troops approach there will be a change in sentiments, the quest for democracy will begin and no reference will be made why the dictators were supported.

In Pakistan the general elections have been scheduled for 11th May. While the US should be following wait and see policy, there seems an urgent need to install a government which is willing to look after the US interest in the region. This demands revisiting Pakistan-US relationship and deciding the priorities.

This has become  a must because critics seem to be divided into two distinct but opposite groups, one saying United States need Pakistan’s support in ensuring peace in Afghanistan and second believing Pakistan needs US support to overcome internal and external threats facing the country. However, both the groups strongly believe that musty relationship between the US and Afghan governments could prove detrimental for both the countries.

Soldiers and military hardware from Afghanistan has to pass through Pakistan, which needs safe passage and speedy and cost effective movement; no one can deny that Pakistan offers the most cost effective route.

It is strongly believed that if United States avoids offending the groups that consider it ‘occupier’ the assaults on withdrawing forces can be minimized. Under the prevailing scenario there is high probability that some of the Afghan warlords may intensify their attacks on Nato troops and Afghan forces.

While both the US and Pakistani governments are trying to improve relationship by removing the irritants, commencement of work on Pakistani portion of Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline has been taken by the US administration an act that makes Pakistan liable for imposition of economic sanctions.

Most of the experts are of the view that since Pakistan needs to overcome its energy crisis and IP offers a reliable and cost effective solution, US administration should not oppose this, mainly because looming energy crisis is adversely affecting Pakistan’s economy and GDP growth. An economically strong Pakistan can help in maintaining peace and boosting economic activities in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of Nato forces.

Any adverse decision can heighten anti US sentiments in Pakistan and imposition of economic sanctions could lead to poor law and order situation that may delay holding general elections in the country. The unrest in Pakistan can also cause disruption in the movement of Nato troops and hardware through Pakistan.

Over the years Pakistan has been able to weed out militants and contain their movement across the border and any lapse could prove fatal for the three stakeholders, Nato, Afghanistan and Pakistan.