Pakistan: Situation far from satisfactory

The recent unfolding of events in Pakistan seems far from satisfactory. Tackling external threats, especially the recent firing by India at borders demanded consensus among the political parties and all the organs of the state. 

The future of incumbent government looks uncertain after the apex court ordered arrest of Prime Minister Raja Perveiz Ashraf and demands that President Asif Ali Zardari should resign. The sit in by the followers and sympathizers of Allama Tahir-ul-Qadri in Islamabad demanding dissolution of assemblies is fueling constitutional crisis.

Islamabad has been missing President Zardari for some time and there are allegations that his trusted Interior Minister Rehman Malik has also joined Islamabad protestors. This point gets credence due to entry of swarms of protestors in highly sensitive D-Square of the federal capital.

While Imran Khan has demanded president to submit his resignation, the real cause of concern is presentation of a resolution in Balochistan Assembly condemning imposition of Governor Rule in the province.

Situation is changing so fast that apprehensions are growing that the country may plunge into serious constitutional crisis, similar to that of 1977, if some crucial steps are not taken immediately. At that time Army was prompted to intervene but now handing over Quetta under Army control was not considered feasible.

While many of the critics attribute the present crisis to incompetence of the present ruling junta, a few conspiracy theories are also getting credence. It is being said that the process of fragmentation of Pakistan has started and probability of foreign intervention is high. The only problem is that rulers instead of reading writing on the wall are asking where the wall is.

Self centeredness of political leaders forces the critics to say that they are responsible for the prevailing mess. PPP and PML-N kept on following ‘you scratch my back and I scratch your back’ policy but also kept on denying this.

Over the years PML-N kept on accusing PPP of the worst corruption but never had the courage to move non-confidence resolution against the prime minister, fearing it would be accused of derailing democratic process. Some say it was not any sympathy with the democracy but to its rule in the largest province, where 65 per cent of total population of the country lives.

In the aftermath of war going on in Afghanistan for more than four decades various extremists groups, many supported by outsiders have continued their activities throughout Pakistan. The Government failed in weeding out the criminals.

If Balochistan was under the grip of infiltrators, the situation was not very different in other three provinces. Often Punjab government was accused of enjoying highly cordial relationships with many of the banned outfits

Lately, Chief Minister of Balochistan was dismissed and Governor Rule was imposed in the province. This was because the provincial government failed in stopping killing of an ethnic group, Hazaras. The apathy was at its height when Hazaras staged a sit in along with nearly 90 dead bodies but no one paid any heed. When prime minister reached Quetta emphasis was on bringing an in-house change and dismissal of the chief minister was resisted.

Now the government faces precarious position because a resolution condemning imposition of Governor Rule has been present in the Balochistan assembly. The response on issue of arrest warrants of prime minister has been more or less the same.

An Advisor to the prime minister, Fawad Chaudhry while talking to a foreign news agency after the Supreme Court ordered the arrest of Prime Minister Ashraf said there was no doubt the country’s military and Supreme Court were working together to topple the government. Following this instance caused problems in areas where PPP enjoys strong vote bank as the activists resorted to killing of people and putting on fire private and public properties.

Pakistan: Can Qadri hasten Zardari’s exit

The building tempo in Pakistan’s federal capital hints towards change in the rulers, sooner than later. The choice is with ruling junta to announce the interim set up at the earliest or be ready to face a situation that could turn real nasty.

Whether the ruling junta likes it or not an interim set up has to be put in place at the earliest to ensure that general elections are held in time for the continuity of democratic process in the country.

In the recent past mainstream political parties PML-N and PTI has been showing their street power but the latest entrant, Allama Tahir-ul-Qadri, leader of Tehrik Minhaj-ul-Quran has changed the entire landscape.

While talking to television channel, Federal Interior Minister Rehman Malik said on Tuesday that the long march led by Qadri, would not be interrupted as long as the participants remained peaceful. He also said Qadri was a guest and participants could stay in Islamabad as long as they wish but they would not be allowed to cross the Red Zone. He added that President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf would consider the demands made by Qadri.

Qadi has invited all the politicians including President Asif Ali Zardari, Mian Nawaz Sharif, Mian Shahbaz Sharif and Asfandyar Wali to his rally and see with their own eyes who this sea of bobbing heads was out here for and hear with their own ears for whom the bell was tolling for.

 His opponents are trying to undermine his importance by saying that he wants to occupy the top slot, which he can’t due to holding dual nationality. Some others are busy in his character assassination but the fact is, he has led a successful march and addressing public meeting in the federal capital.

This can be termed good for the country because the incumbent government realized that any attempt to stop this march or denying him the right to address public meeting in the capital can prove counterproductive.  Qadri has become a major threat for PML-N as well as PPP, the two signatories of ‘Charter of Democracy’.

Since it has been decided to set up an interim government for holding fair and transparent election, the real point of concern is composition and size of this set up. Ideally, it must have representation of from major political parties but who will decide the names of interim prime minister, governors/chief ministers and ministers?

Traditionally in Pakistan, any and every set up has to be created in consultation with Pakistan’s armed forces and judiciary keeping in view the ground realities. Therefore, the stakeholders will have to take into account aspirations of general public and inadequacies of mainstream political parties and also those which may be too small but enjoy a lot of nuisance power.

Lately, Qadri has been alleged for disrupting election process by Qamar Zaman Kaira, Federal Information Mister. May be the statement reflects loyalty to his party but it is true that Qadri is attaining power due to massive support by general public. It is often said that masses are annoyed by PPP and PML-N, who may have supported democracy but only to ensure they remain in power.

A question is often raised who is providing funds to him? In fact this question should have not been asked because it is the most necked truth that external power having keen in any country play a key role in the installation and dismissal of governments.

Pakistan would be lucky if change can be ushered through a democratic process, else it is feared that rebel groups would be formed, given funds and even arms to ensure change of regime, this has happened in many countries lately.

The United States has specific interest in Pakistan and its political and administrative set up due to its presence in Afghanistan. Its best efforts will be to avoid formation of anti-US set up simply to avoid any disruption in Nato supplies passing through Pakistan.

United States has already expressed its apprehensions on mounting hostility between Pakistan and India and has advised the two atomic powers of the region to apply restraints.

By this time United States knows the incumbent government very well and any radical change may not be endorsed. This endorsement will become evident from Pakistan entering into another Standby agreement with the IMF and release of funds by multilateral donors.

It is also believed that India, China and Russia will also be very closely monitoring the unfolding of events in Pakistan. India has repeatedly expressed its apprehensions on militants hibernating in Pakistan. These militants are not only a headache for India, Afghanistan and Iran but are destroying the social and economic fabric of the country.

The recent peaceful sits in staged throughout Pakistan in support of Hazaras prove beyond doubt that people strongly believe in peaceful transition, it may be another thing that at some stage the peaceful initiates turn violent because extremists wish to sabotage these to achieve their vested interest.

Governor Rule Imposed in Balochistan

And finally President, Asif Ali Zardari has signed the summary regarding imposition of Governor's rule in Balochistan that would make Governor, Zulfiqar Ali Magsi the chief executive of the province. 

Earlier, Prime Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf had announced that Governor's rule in Balochistan would be imposed for two months starting January 14, 2013.

Former minister Jan Ali Changezi, on behalf of Hazara community announced to end sit-in at 10.00am on Monday as President Asif Ali Zardari has signed the summary regarding imposition of Governor's rule in Balochistan.

Hazara sit in Quetta had started in Quetta, provincial capital of Balochistan after Juma prayers. The protestors have already spent three nights in open as the temperature dropped to minus 10 degrees. While Chief Minister Aslam Raisani remained an absconder during this period, demonstrations engulfed the entire Pakistan.

It no longer remained a sit in by Hazaras or Shias as the entire civil society joined them, irrespective of cast and creed, including minorities. In many countries demonstrations were also staged in front of Pakistani missions. The chief minister didn’t show his face and was reportedly staying in UK. Raisani, a PPP member, is probably the most criticized and alleged corrupt politician in the country.

Imposition of Governor's rule in Balochistan has been termed ‘too little too late’. One of the demands of the protestors was handing over control of Quetta city to Pakistan Army. For the reasons best know to the constitutional experts this has not been done. Governor,  Zulfiqar Ali Magsi has been appointed chief executive of the province. It is on record that earlier Magsi had expressed his ‘complete helplessness’ in resolving this issue.

It was feared that if control of Quetta was transferred to Pakistan Army, it would bring bad name to the civil and military bureaucracy. Many of the Baoch tribal chiefs who have taken asylum in other countries would start chanting slogans ‘usurp of rights of Balochs’.

This is the most disgusting argument because none came to condone with Hazaras, including leaders of mainstream political parties. President Asif Ali Zardari has confined himself to Biwal House in Karachi and prime minister and interior minister were bogged down by Qadri obsession. Strangely, Army Chief also preferred to keep quiet, except issuing a warning that the country faces serious internal threat.

One of the conspiracy theories is that some of the external forces are adamant at axing Balochistan from Pakistan. Over the years they have been hosting fugitive tribal chiefs and also pleading that an independent Balochistan should be created. It is often alleged that the much talked about Baloch insurgents are nothing but the ‘local operators’ of some foreign intelligence agencies, also getting funds and arms.

At the time of announcing imposition of Governor's rule in Balochistan, Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf had to say that he had taken other coalition partners into consideration over the issue. He specifically mentioned names of MQM chief Altaf Hussain, ANP chief Asfandyar Wali and PML-Q leader Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain, who had all urged him to impose governor rule in the province.

While Irman Khan reached Quetta to sympathize with Hazaras, Mian bothers neither came nor even bothered to send their nominees to Quetta. They also abstained from demanding removal of Raisani, may be because PML-N has lately emerged the biggest champion of the rights of Balochs. 

Ruthless Baloch Tribal Chiefs

Many of the Baloch tribal chiefs have been demanding creation of an independent Balochistan because the federal government is not giving them their basic rights.

However, complete apathy of the provincial government towards ongoing Quetta sit in against genocide of Shias shows that the ruling elites are the most ruthless.

The protestors have spent two nights in open despite extremely cold wind and even rain. The most disgusting part is that the relatives are sitting with the coffins of loved one and refuse to bury them till control of Quetta city is handed over to Pakistan Army but no one is listening to them.

While Governor Balochistan has expressed his helplessness, provincial chief minister appears to be an absconder. In the provincial assembly most of the elected members are tribal chiefs and there is also a long list of ministers but none has bothered to even express sympathy to the grieved ones.

The protestors are demanding immediate handing over of Quetta city to Army, the response from GHO has not come as yet. A foreign news agency report exhibits the prevailing state of apathy. It says, “However, in Rawalpindi, where the military’s headquarters are located, there was silence. There was no word from the military that has been called upon to take over Quetta and which has been criticized by many in the past 48 hours. An ISPR official said the army can be called in by the civil administration and the provincial government”.

People have a right to ask, if the provincial government is pitiless, isn’t this the responsibility of the federation to move the army so that these coffins can be buried?  

The entire ruling junta was obsessed with long march of a religious cleric. The response of civil society was also lukewarm but over the last 24 hours support of Altaf Hussain and Imran Khan for the Hazaras has created some waves. Demonstrations in the support of assassinated are being staged throughout Pakistan, the largest and the most organized being a sit in near Governor House in Karachi.

Main media attracted a lot of criticism for spending hours on killing of a youth but paying little attention to the biggest genocide of Pakistan’s history. A report says, “As the devastated Shia protesters in Quetta continued their vigil over the unburied bodies of their loves ones, their grief was felt across the country as members of the Shia and Hazara communities and civil society came out on the streets of various cities of Pakistan on Saturday”.

However, the critics must not forget that reporters and crew members of television channels have been killed and severely injured in these attacks.

Genocide of Shia Hazaras has been going on in Balochistan for decades but has attained an enormous quantum never witnessed in the past. On last Thursday four bombs were detonated in Quetta in which more than 100 people, mostly Hazaras were killed and double the number was injured, some of them critically injured.

Quetta witnessing sit in by Shias  

Armed with the unimaginable weapons and the dead bodies of their loved ones who were brutally killed in the Quetta blasts are staging a sit in Quetta, instead of rushing to bury them. It is the sign of the abnormality and desperation of one aspect of Pakistan's current condition, that beleaguered brothers and sisters, fathers, mothers and children, are sitting out in the dark and cold Alamdar street of Quetta.

Veteran journalist Nasim Zehra in one of her posts on Facebook has written. “This protest, almost of an unnatural kind, will go down as one of the most heart-wrenching and poignant moment in Pakistan's deeply traumatic journey towards stable and sane adulthood. The hopeful sign is the show of solidarity for the Shia Hazaras as people in Karachi and Lahore are planning protests”.

The protestors with dead bodies of their loved one are demanding that the killers be apprehended, Governor Rule be imposed in Baluchistan and the army takes over city's security. Currently the CM and the Home Minister are both missing from Quetta while the provincial ministers appear to be in hiding”.

Quetta Yakjahti Council (QYC) has continued its protest since Friday evening against the worst terrorist attacks in Quetta, in which over 100 people lost their lives. According to media reports the sit-in includes women, children, senior citizens and the dead bodies of around 86 martyrs. 

The QYC has declared that the sit-in will continue till the city is handed over to the army.

Shia leaders are now openly questioning Pakistani army chief General Ashfaq Kayani over security in the country after the recent bomb blasts in Quetta.

“I ask the army chief: What have you done with these extra three years you got (in office). What did you give us except more death,” Maulana Amin Shaheedi, a central leader of the Majlis-i-Wahdat-i-Muslimeen, told a news conference.

Most of Thursday’s deaths were caused by twin attacks aiming Hazara Shias in Quetta, where members of the sect have long accused the state of turning a blind eye to extremist militant death squads.

The burials were scheduled after Friday prayers but the leaders said the bodies would remain in place until Shias receive promises of protection. Shaheedi said “They will not be buried until the army comes into Quetta,” he said.

Violence against Pakistan’s Shia Muslims is rising and some communities are living in a state of siege, a human rights group said on Friday.

Last year was the bloodiest year for Shias in living memory as more than 400 were killed and if Thursday’s attack is any indication; it is just going to get worse.

According to media reports the banned extremist group Lashkar-e-Jangvi (LeJ) claimed responsibility for the attack in a predominantly Shia neighbourhood where the residents are ethnic Hazaras, a majority of whom are Shias who first migrated from Afghanistan in the nineteenth century.

The LeJ has stepped up attacks against Shias across the country but has zeroed in on members of the sect who live in resource-rich Balochistan province.

“The LeJ operates under one front or the other, and its activists go around openly shouting, ‘infidel, infidel, Shia infidel’ and ‘death to Shias’ in the streets of Quetta and outside our mosques,” said Syed Dawwod Agha, a top official with the Balochistan Shia Conference.

“We have become a community of grave diggers. We are so used to death now that we always have shrouds ready.”

The roughly half a million Hazara people in Quetta, who speak a Persian dialect, have distinct features and are an easy target. They are living in a state of siege.

Deadliest Day in Pakistan

Thursday, January 10, 2013 will go as one of the deadliest days in the history of Pakistan when nearly 100 were killed in various blasts and 200 severely injured. The death toll is on the rise and so is the level of discomfort among the people.

The intensity of one of the blasts is evident from an AFP photo posted at the website of a local newspaper and included in this post, if anyone bothers to look at the details.

The efforts of conventional media must be recognized, especially because one of the reporters was killed in Quaetta attack and his colleague severely injured. The social media is debating and often some very pertinent observations/comments are posted.  

While some analysts say that the government is losing its writ, Moonis Ahmar, an academician has raised a question, have things gone out of control or there is still time to prevent killing fields in a country which was created as a result of enormous sacrifices?

I am really impressed by one of the posts placed of Facebook that says, “If we have to save Pakistan we'll have to look beyond sectarian divides, not be shias sunnis but muslims only! and at the same time condemn and speak against every single killing of an innocent person. Call it shia genocide, muslim genocide, human genocide but condemn and speak against it”.

This confirms the belief that there are certain extremist groups that take pride in killing.  Another post says,” I don’t know if this Sipah Sahaba, Ahle Sunnat Wal Jammat are an international conspiracy. Whatever it is, the reality is that they are open terrorists who not only kill innocent people but take pride in doing so”.

It is often said that law enforcing agencies initiate investigations on an incorrect pretext. This seems true if one looks at the media coverage of Swat incident. It is being stated that a gas cylinder blew up at a religious gathering that killed 22 people and wounded more than 80. However, people don’t rule out possibility of sabotage.

According to reports there were around 1,500 people listening to a Muslim cleric give a speech at the centre located at least 10 kilometres away from Mingora, the main town in Swat district. The area was once under the control of militants and had set up check posts before the army undertook an operation in 2009 to rid the area of Taliban-linked groups. Tableeghi Jamaat is a non political organization and attacks on its gatherings are very rare. These are considered lesser Muslims for their pacifist approach and their non-Jehadi approach.

Four explosions have been heard in the provincial capital Quetta, which in aggregate have killed around 100 people, including four police officials. Two explosions took place at Alamdar Road and two more explosions took place near Airport road. Earlier on in the day, 12 people were killed after a blast took place near Quetta’s Bacha Khan chowk.

Netanyahu under attack

It is often said that most of the Israelis are now tired of living in a constant state of war and want to live peacefully with Palestinians. There is also a talk that if peace could be negotiated with Palestinians by accepting 'two states' policy and vacating some of the occupied areas, it is a point worth considering. To achieve this objective 'war mania' has to be gotten rid off. In this endeavor Benjamin Netanyahu is considered the biggest hurdle.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is contesting election for another term has come under sever attack by Yuval Diskin, a prominent Israeli ex-intelligence chief. It was an unusually strong and overt assault on Netanyahu by a figure from the security establishment, coming less than three weeks before the January 22 election. The election campaign has hardly touched on security issues like the conflict with Iran or the stalled peace process with the Palestinians, focusing almost entirely on domestic issues.

He accused Netanyahu of acting illegally by ordering the security apparatus to prepare for an attack on Iran before gaining former approval by the cabinet of ministers. He also said Netanyahu squandered the gains made by Israel`s security forces by not using a period of relative quiet over the past few years to move toward peace with the Palestinians. Diskin said Netanyahu acted irresponsibly regarding Iran`s nuclear program and accused him of prioritizing personal concerns over national interests.

He accused Netanyahu who wanted to go down in history as someone who did something of the same proportions as two of his predecessors had done.  He also stated, "I have a very strong feeling that with the Iranian issue Netanyahu is haunted by two former Israeli Prime Ministers, Menachem Begin, who attacked the reactor in Iraq and Ehud Olmert, who, as it is claimed in many places, attacked the reactor in Syria".

While resistance against Netanyahu is on the rise, the recent poles tell the contrary. He is being hinted the most popular and likely to win the election for another term. It seems that power brokers are active and trying to create the hype that unilateral attack on Iran has become a must. This is a policy some radicals are following after having faced repeated defeats from those who are being supported by Iran, be it Lebanon or Syria.

Apprehensions have been expressed repeatedly that as the date for withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan is getting closer, a new front has to be opened to keep the combat soldiers busy. The front has to be opened by attacking Syria or Iran. The only worry is that the Syrian regime could not be toppled in nearly two years and entering into direct encounter with either of the country could prove real punitive.

Over the months Russia and China have been opposing direct encounter in Syria and also resisting impositions of newer economic sanctions on Iran. Independent analysts are of the view that economic sanctions have failed to deter Iranians from their nuclear program, which they claim to be peaceful. While both the United States and Israel consider Iran a major threat, talks about maintaining working relationship for securing peace for Israelis is getting louder. Some critics even go to the extent of saying that any ill-planned attack on Iran could put the very existence of Israel at risk and cause serious damages to the United States also.

Courtesy: The Financial Daily