The UN General Assembly has referred the West Bank
issue to the World Court. There are again rumblings about possible
annexation, especially with Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-Right government assuming
power in Jerusalem.
Annexation is viewed as something terrible Israel might do
to the Palestinians. However the reality is that Israel has already incorporated
the West Bank long ago.
It has not formally annexed this not-very-large area in
order to avoid provoking the region and the world – and mainly to avoid having
to extend the right to vote for the Israeli parliament to the region’s three
million Palestinians.
This is a neat little trick that has worked well; it has
fooled most people most of the time, including, amusingly, a few clueless
Jewish nationalists who never got the memo and are now calling for annexation.
To understand that the West Bank is already part of
Israel, consider the following:
By law, Israelis abroad cannot vote in elections unless
they are diplomats or other envoys of the state; generally only citizens
present in Israeli sovereign territory on Election Day can vote. Are the half a
million West Bank settlers allowed to vote? You bet they are, and in impressive
numbers they do. That is in contrast to Palestinians who may be living in a
village just across the road.
Countries do not generally build towns and villages on
territory that does not belong to them (and democratic countries certainly do
not build anything for only one ethnic group only). Is Israel building Jewish
settlements in the West Bank? It certainly has, and now it will again; there’s
an accredited university there as well.
Israel
controls all entry and exit to and from the overall West Bank, as well as
passage between the Palestinian Authority autonomy islands. Israel controls the
airspace and the water, natural resources and construction rights in most of
the territory, and also provides the currency. Israel has the overriding
security and justice authority, and even the autonomous islands are essentially
subordinate.
Is there any other country with such a level of control on
territory that isn’t part of it? Certainly not democratic countries; the US
territories like Puerto Rico are an interesting case – and the locals there are
US citizens. The situation is analogous mainly to the colonial era, which wound
down in the middle of the previous century.
Defenders
of the situation will say the occupation is necessary for security reasons,
because otherwise the West Bank would fall to Hamas and terrorists would fire
rockets from strategic highland at Israel’s major cities. That’s a very
reasonable concern, given that this precise thing happened after Israel pulled
out of Gaza in 2005 – but it does not justify the settlements.
Apologists will argue that the occupation is temporary,
until the Palestinians agree to Israel’s conditions for partition. But they will
not agree to Israel’s terms. The excuse of temporariness is preposterous after
55 years, with no end in sight and the new government preparing to further deepen
the settlement enterprise; it plans to legitimize illegal outposts deep inside
the territory.
Some
argue that most settlers live quite close to the old pre-1967 border, and
incorporating them only, would usefully expand Israel’s narrow waist, which at
its narrowest point is less than 20 kilometers (about 10 miles) wide. But this
does not apply to the 100,000 settlers who live deep inside these territories –
well beyond the security barrier established in the 2000s (and which eats into
about 15% of the West Bank); the purpose of those settlements, and most of what
the new government plans, is to make any partition impossible.
Some right-wingers now want Israel to stand supposedly
strong by formally annexing so-called Area C, which is the 60% or so of the
West Bank that surrounds the autonomy areas – an unwieldy map created by the
1990s Oslo Accords.
It is
doubted that people know the map. Such an annexation, which would leave islands
of non-annexed Palestinian areas surrounded by Israeli territory, would not
produce what a reasonable person would consider a partition. If anything, it
would invite comparisons to South Africa’s apartheid-era Bantustans. It is only
slightly less childish than suggesting Israel annex everything except the homes
of Palestinians.
If the current government actually lasts four years and
deepens the settlement project, the situation will gradually escalate. The
Palestinian Authority is likely to collapse – or at least move on from 87-year
old leader Mahmoud Abbas. There may well be a renewed Palestinian uprising. And
before long, there will be a growing Palestinian demand for Israel to really
annex the West Bank – all of it, giving the Palestinians the same voting rights
enjoyed by the two million Arab citizens in Israel proper.
This is
the likely outcome of an occupation that includes colonization of the kind that
is taking place. This is the only formal annexation scheme that will actually
mean anything, and it will be backed by the entire world, probably with
economic sanctions.
The result will be a country of some 13 million that is
barely over half Jewish – and you can expect further conflicts, including
between secular and religious Jews, that will cause mass emigration among the
sector currently responsible for Israel’s economic and high-tech miracle.
The
result will be a new country called Palestine, not Israel. This understanding
of demographic reality (and the leverage it bestows) is why the Palestinians
have not made things easy for Israel by seriously engaging with previous peace
and partition offers made by more intelligent governments.
An Israel that wants to survive in the long term should
freeze all settlement activity beyond the security barrier line – and project
to all audiences that its strategic imperative is a secure way to separate from
most of the West Bank.
In the wake of last week’s UN decision, the World Court
could do peace a major service by expediting procedures and nudging Israel in
this direction.
Annexation
is not something Israel should threaten – but something it should strenuously
seek to avoid. Instead, under the new government, it is headed off a cliff in a
way that can only leave its enemies incredulous with joy. It is a genuine
failure of democracy – and a very flawed one at that, because millions of
Palestinians are effectively residents who cannot vote.