Monday, 6 October 2025

Palestinian Experience: Cycles of Betrayal

The Palestinian question remains one of the most enduring and unresolved issues of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. From the early days of British colonial involvement to the present-day geopolitical maneuvering, Palestinians have repeatedly found themselves at the intersection of promises made and promises broken — victims of a cycle of disappointment perpetuated by global powers and regional actors alike.

The first major turning point came with the Balfour Declaration of 1917, in which Britain simultaneously pledged support for a Jewish homeland in Palestine while assuring Arabs that their political rights would not be compromised. The contradiction proved devastating, the Mandate period institutionalized inequality, laying the foundation for future conflict.

The Nakba of 1948 further deepened Palestinian displacement and dispossession, as hundreds of thousands were uprooted without meaningful international intervention. Subsequent decades brought renewed hopes — and renewed betrayals.

The 1967 war not only expanded Israeli occupation but also exposed Arab regimes’ hollow rhetoric of liberation.

The Oslo Accords of the 1990s, once hailed as a breakthrough, devolved into a mechanism for managing rather than resolving occupation.

International mediators, notably the United States, often acted less as neutral brokers and more as enablers of the status quo.

Even in recent years, Palestinians continue to confront shifting alliances and selective morality.

The Abraham Accords normalized ties between Israel and several Arab states, effectively sidelining the Palestinian cause.

Each diplomatic milestone elsewhere in the region has come at the expense of Palestinian aspirations for sovereignty and justice.

The persistence of this pattern underscores a grim reality - for over a century, Palestinians have been entangled in a geopolitical web that values stability over justice and negotiation over equity.

Until the cycle of symbolic commitments and political abandonment is broken, the Palestinian experience will remain defined by unfulfilled promises — a history not of reconciliation, but of recurring disappointment.

 

Saturday, 4 October 2025

Hamas succumbs to US Pressure as Arab Support Evaporates

After months of defiance, Hamas is quietly edging toward concessions under mounting US pressure — not because Washington’s diplomacy suddenly turned persuasive, but because the Arab world has walked away.

In earlier conflicts, Hamas could rely on a chorus of Arab solidarity — fiery statements, emergency summits, and token aid. This time, the silence is deafening.

Arab capitals are fatigued, divided, and increasingly indifferent to Hamas’s political theatrics. The group that once claimed to embody the Arab street now finds itself isolated, cornered, and expendable.

Behind the scenes, Washington’s pressure has been relentless. Aid leverage, regional diplomacy, and quiet coordination with Egypt and Qatar have created an environment where Hamas has little room to maneuver. Even its traditional allies — Doha and Ankara — are urging pragmatism over defiance. The message is clear - yield or face total annihilation.

Arab governments, meanwhile, have recalibrated their priorities. Stability, trade, and relations with the West outweigh emotional appeals to Palestinian militancy.

The Abraham Accords, quiet intelligence links, and economic realignments show where the region’s real interests now lie.

For Hamas, this shift is existential — its political survival depends on Arab sympathy, and that sympathy has run out.

Critics say, Hamas’s own strategy hastened this moment. By aligning with Iran, alienating Arab governments, and launching attacks that invited catastrophic retaliation, Hamas burned the very bridges it now desperately needs. Even street protests across Arab cities have failed to translate into meaningful state action.

As US pressure mounts, Hamas’s bravado is giving way to backdoor bargaining. The Arab world’s silence has become Washington’s strongest weapon.

Hamas may yet sign a ceasefire, not as a victor of resistance, but as a movement abandoned by its own region.

For Gaza, this is not just political defeat — it is a painful reminder that Arab solidarity ends where national interest begins.

 

 

Donald Trump: Loose Bull or Fearless Leader

Donald Trump is no longer just a political figure — he has emerged as a major force of disruption. To his critics, he’s a loose bull, to his loyalists, he’s a fearless fighter standing alone. Both sides may be right, that makes him dangerous.

The general impression is that Trump doesn’t follow rules; he tramples them. He doesn’t debate ideas; he dominates the stage. Every insult, every indictment, every scandal seems to fuel his sense of destiny. For millions of disillusioned Americans, he’s not the problem — he’s the rebellion.

A rebellion without restraint easily turns into wreckage. Trump’s politics are built on grievance, not governance. He thrives on outrage, feeds on division, and weaponizes mistrust. His rallies ignite passion but also paranoia; his promises stir hope but sow hostility. Underneath the red caps and roaring crowds lies a country tearing itself apart.

His defenders say he speaks truth to power. May be yes, but he also speaks poison to democracy. The media is “the enemy,” the courts are “corrupt,” and the system — unless it serves him — is “rigged.” It’s not leadership; it is demolition disguised as defiance.

The tragedy is that Trump didn’t create America’s anger — he merely harnessed it. He turned frustration into a political movement and chaos into a campaign strategy. That’s his genius, and his curse.

Trump may call himself the voice of the forgotten, but in truth, he’s the echo of a broken democracy shouting at itself.

Whether the United States can survive another round of his rampage — or finally find the courage to tame its loose bull — will decide not just an election, but the future of its republic.

 

Israel Propping Up Clerics, It Wants to Topple

Israel loves to project itself as the master strategist of the Middle East, but its obsession with weakening Iran’s clergy-led regime has turned into a textbook case of shooting oneself in the foot. Every strike, every sanction pushed through Western allies, every act of aggression meant to undercut Tehran’s clerics only hardens their grip on power. Far from collapsing, the system feeds off Israel’s hostility.

Nationalism is a powerful weapon. Iranians who may loathe the suffocating theocracy often rally behind it when Israel rattles its sabers. The clergy has perfected the art of turning external threats into political oxygen. By painting Israel as an existential menace, the clerics recast themselves as the sole guardians of sovereignty. Instead of cracking the system, Tel Aviv provides its clergy foes with the ultimate justification for survival.

Worse still, Israel’s strategy systematically silences the only real alternative inside Iran: reformists. Moderates who advocate engagement with the world are mocked as naïve or treacherous whenever Israel ups the ante. The hardliners gleefully point to every strike and sanction to prove that diplomacy is a fool’s game. In doing so, Israel eliminates any space for evolution from within, ensuring that Iran remains dominated by the most rigid voices.

And then there’s the economic side. Sanctions and isolation have not strangled the clergy; they’ve enriched it. The opponents often allege, the Revolutionary Guards and clerical networks thrive on smuggling, black markets, and sanction-busting schemes. Ordinary Iranians pay the price with rising prices and shrinking opportunities, while the very elites Israel wants to weaken grow stronger.

Israel’s strategy is not just flawed — it is counterproductive. Instead of destabilizing Iran’s clerical establishment, it props it up, fuels its legitimacy, and crushes dissent. Tel Aviv claims to be undermining its greatest enemy; in reality, it is handing the clergy the very tools it needs to endure.

The truth is brutal: Israel’s war against Iran’s clerics may be the biggest gift it has ever given them.

 

US double standards: Calling Hamas Terrorists, Negotiating Anyway

The United States loves to preach moral clarity - we do not negotiate with terrorists. Hamas, Washington insists, is a terrorist outfit responsible for bloodshed and chaos. Yet when the fighting in Gaza escalates and pressure mounts, the very same US administration finds itself scrambling for ceasefires—talking, directly or through intermediaries, to the very group it vilifies.

This is not strategy; it is double standards dressed up as pragmatism. US labels Hamas terrorists when it wants to project toughness at home, but when hostages are in danger, when civilian deaths spark global outrage, or when Arab allies threaten to break ranks, suddenly those “terrorists” become indispensable negotiating partners. The moral line evaporates the moment US interests are at stake.

The hypocrisy runs deep. The US slammed the Taliban for decades, only to sit across the table with them in Doha. It demonized Iraqi insurgents, then quietly cut deals to protect its own troops. It threatens “rogue states” like North Korea, then rushes into summits when the nuclear rhetoric escalates. With Hamas, the pattern is the same - condemnation in speeches, cooperation in practice.

This duplicity has consequences. By insisting Hamas is illegitimate yet negotiating with it whenever convenient, Washington undermines its own credibility. The message is clear: terrorism is a negotiable label, applied or ignored depending on political expediency. For people in the Middle East, this only confirms what they already suspect—that US policy is not about principles, but about protecting its own interests and Israel’s dominance.

If the US truly believes Hamas is a terrorist organization, then it should be consistent and refuse talks, no matter the cost. If, on the other hand, it recognizes that Hamas is an unavoidable political actor, then it should drop the pretense and admit it. Straddling both positions—condemnation in rhetoric, negotiation in reality—is not statesmanship. It is hypocrisy.

Friday, 3 October 2025

PSX benchmark index up 4.1%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) sustained its bullish momentum during this past week, driven by investors’ confidence following the historic meeting between the Prime Minister and US President at the Oval Office. The benchmark index was up 6,733 points or 4.1%WoW to close at a historic high of 168,990 points on Friday October 03, 2025. However, market participation plunged by 19.8%WoW to an average daily traded volume to 1.8 billion shares, as compared to 2.2 billion shares traded a week ago.

On the macroeconomic front, inflation for September 2025 was recorded at 5.6%YoY, marking the highest level in the past 10 months, given the recent flooding. In anticipation, yields on tenors of T-Bills in the last auction increased, reflecting investor expectations that the policy rate will remain unchanged in the near term.

Trade deficit for September 2025 increased to US$3.3 billion, from a deficit of US$2.3 billion during the same period last year.

Cement sector, offtakes for September 2025 was recorded at 4.25 million tons, up 7% YoY, given 14%YoY surge in domestic sales.

Offtakes of OMCs during September 2025 was registered at 1.4 million tons, up by 8%YoY.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) Prime Minister solicited US investment in meeting with President Trump, 2) Trade with Central Asia, Kabul surges to US$2.4 billion, 3) Petroleum Division to discuss GST waiver for petroleum products with IMF, 4) Pakistan-IMF talks on US$ 7billion EFF and RSF reviews begins, and 5) FBR notifies 40% regulatory duty on import of used cars.

Commercial Banks, Fertilizer, Refinery, Vanaspati & Allied Industries and Transport were amongst the top performers, while Modarabas, Jute, Textile Spinning, Close-end Mutual Funds and Textile Composite were amongst the laggards.

Major buying was recorded by Mutual Funds and Individuals with a net buy of US$82.2 million, while Insurance, Companies and Banks/DFIs remained the highest seller, with a net sell of US$71.4 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: BOP, SAZEW, FABL, YOUW and FATIMA, while laggards included: HUMNL, NPL, RMPL, MTL, and PIOC.

AKD Securities foresees the momentum in the benchmark index to continue given smooth completion of IMF 2nd review, minimal flood impact and improved credit ratings by global agencies amid falling fixed income yields.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to further improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the US and Saudi Arabia.

The outlook is supported by the lack of alternative investment avenues and the attractive valuation of local equities.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, PSO, FFC, ENGROH, MCB, LUCK, DGKC, FCCL, INDU, and SYS.

 

 

Thursday, 2 October 2025

Triple Whammy of Crude Uncertainty

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday after four straight sessions of declines but were on track for their steepest weekly decline since late June due to market expectations that the OPEC Plus could hike output further despite oversupply concerns. If prices do not further recover in this session, Brent could close at the lowest level since the week ended May 30, while WTI would finish at a level not seen since May 02. On a weekly basis, Brent has plunged 8.3%, while WTI is 7.6% lower.

Oil markets thrive on stability, yet today they stand at the crossroads of three unpredictable forces: OPEC’s internal calculations, China’s demand swings, and the broader geopolitical turmoil stretching from the Middle East to Eastern Europe. Together, these factors create a triple whammy of uncertainty that is shaking investor confidence and distorting price forecasts.

First, OPEC remains the central player, but its cohesion is under strain. Saudi Arabia’s output discipline often clashes with the fiscal needs of smaller producers desperate for higher revenues. The cartel’s recent production adjustments reflect less a unified strategy and more a fragile balancing act between market control and survival. Traders now treat OPEC announcements with skepticism, wary that compliance may fracture under pressure.

Second, China—the world’s largest crude importer—casts a long shadow. Its slowing economy, punctuated by property sector woes and uneven industrial growth, has dampened energy consumption. Yet at the same time, Beijing stockpiles aggressively when prices dip, injecting volatility into the market. A single policy shift in China, from stimulus measures to green energy acceleration, can ripple through global demand curves in weeks, leaving analysts scrambling to adjust projections.

Finally, geopolitics adds combustible uncertainty. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, sanctions on Russia and Iran, and maritime tensions in the South China Sea all threaten supply chains and shipping lanes. Insurance premiums on crude shipments rise, pipelines face sabotage risks, and diplomatic fractures widen the unpredictability. Energy markets are not just reacting to supply and demand—they are hostage to political brinkmanship.

What makes this triad dangerous is their intersection. OPEC’s decisions are influenced by geopolitical rivalries; China’s demand patterns intersect with U.S. foreign policy and sanctions regimes. The market is no longer shaped by economics alone—it is choreographed by power struggles, both overt and hidden.

For investors, refiners, and consumers alike, the message is clear: crude is no longer just a commodity. It is a barometer of global instability. Until OPEC, China, and geopolitics align toward predictability—a highly unlikely prospect—oil will remain the most uncertain asset of our time.

 

Can Washington Buy Hezbollah Guns?

Washington believes US$230 million can buy stability by disarming Hezbollah and empowering Lebanon’s army. In a country where weapons are seen as survival, and aid is tied to political strings, dollars may deepen divisions rather than deliver sovereignty.

United States is betting big on Lebanon. Its latest US$230 million aid package, funneled into the army and security forces, comes with one not-so-hidden agenda: disarm Hezbollah. For Washington, the formula is simple—dollars for sovereignty. Strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces, dismantle weapons caches, tie reconstruction money to compliance, and Hezbollah will finally be forced under state control.

But Hezbollah is not a street gang waiting to be bought out. It is Lebanon’s most powerful political and military force, one that commands loyalty, provides services, and—above all—wields arms that many see as the only shield against Israel. When bombs fell on Beirut in 2006, it was not the Lebanese army that stood firm, but Hezbollah. To expect the group to trade rockets for US money is to misunderstand its very identity.

The US plan hinges on a fragile bargain: Hezbollah hands over weapons, Israel halts incursions, and Lebanon begins to rebuild. Yet history says otherwise. Israeli jets still scream across Lebanese skies with impunity. Promises of restraint ring hollow to a movement born from decades of occupation and war. In Hezbollah’s calculus, surrendering arms is not reform—it is suicide.

Washington frames this as state-building. Hezbollah calls it blackmail. By tying basic recovery—electricity, infrastructure, reconstruction—to disarmament, the US is accused of holding Lebanon’s survival hostage. Aid, in this view, is just another weapon of war, designed to weaken “the resistance” where bombs failed.

The clash is stark: United States believes money can buy stability; Hezbollah insists weapons guarantee it. In between stands a broken Lebanon, desperate for relief yet divided over who really protects it.

If Washington thinks $230 million will unravel a militia that survived wars, sanctions, and sieges, it may soon discover that in Lebanon, guns are worth more than dollars—and sovereignty is not for sale.

 

Flotilla Confrontation: Security Meets Humanitarian Defiance

The clash on the Mediterranean was more than a naval interception; it was the meeting point of two uncompromising mindsets. Israel, driven by security fears, saw the flotilla as a breach of sovereignty. The organizers, propelled by humanitarian urgency, saw it as a moral duty. The confrontation at sea exposed the deeper conflict on land—between a state that insists on safety at all costs and activists who believe silence in the face of suffering is complicity.

For Israel, the blockade of Gaza is not an option but a shield. In its worldview, Gaza is governed by Hamas, a militant force openly hostile to the Jewish state. Every unchecked shipment, Israel argues, risks smuggling in rockets or arms. From this vantage point, the blockade is an unfortunate but necessary firewall. The flotilla’s defiance, therefore, was not seen as a humanitarian act but as a provocation, a test of sovereignty. Intercepting the vessels was, in Israel’s eyes, enforcement of deterrence—not an act of aggression.

The flotilla organizers saw the situation through a very different lens. For them, Gaza is less about security threats and more about a humanitarian catastrophe. Years of blockade have left two million people trapped in an economic and social vise. The organizers framed their mission not simply as aid delivery but as civil disobedience at sea. Their ships carried food and medicine, but more importantly, they carried symbolism—an attempt to shine a spotlight on suffering and force the international community to reckon with policies they believe amount to collective punishment.

Both narratives have their logic, and both are uncompromising. Israel’s security calculus is rooted in bitter experience of rocket fire and attacks, leaving little room for risk-taking. The activists, meanwhile, operate on the conviction that moral duty overrides political boundaries. Neither side expected to concede; both expected to be challenged.

That is why confrontation was inevitable. The tragedy is that it deepened rather than bridged the divide. Israel reinforced its image as uncompromising, while the activists underscored their point that humanitarian access is blocked. In the end, the flotilla standoff revealed more than a naval skirmish—it laid bare the gulf between security fears and humanitarian imperatives, a gulf the world has yet to find the courage to close.