Ben-Gvir's Temple Mount visit and Netanyahu's political gamble

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's early Tuesday morning visit to the Temple Mount was a political gamble that could pay off big-time for both him and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – or backfire.

Only one terror attack will prove fodder for the opposition to make a convincing case that Ben-Gvir was indeed dragging Netanyahu into chaos.

Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir met on Monday evening, after which the Likud put out a statement saying, "After consulting with security officials, Netanyahu did not request that Ben-Gvir not visit the site."

Ben-Gvir put Netanyahu in a pickle. The National Security Minister would have likely visited the site even if Netanyahu would have requested him not to.

Netanyahu therefore risked appearing weak, but on the other did not want to encourage Ben-Gvir to visit so as not to be blamed for the consequences.

First, the duo reportedly actually agreed in the meeting that Ben-Gvir would visit on Tuesday, and second, they agreed to keep this secret and intentionally led many to believe that the visit would happen in the next week or even few weeks, rather than the first thing the next day.

After the opposition launched an attack on Monday, including Lapid warning that people will die, both Ben-Gvir and Netanyahu realized that if the visit ends up not provoking a response from Palestinians in the West Bank or Hamas in Gaza, it proves the doomsayers wrong, strengthens the idea of showing who is boss and indicates a new, tougher policy vis-à-vis the Palestinians.

The question is what happens if there is a response?

One siren in the Gaza border area, or one terror attack directly linked to the visit, will prove fodder for the opposition to make a convincing case that Ben-Gvir was indeed dragging Netanyahu into chaos.

This sort of political gamble is typical of Ben-Gvir, but not of Netanyahu, who is notoriously cautious on security issues.

But as Netanyahu showed throughout the coalition negotiations over the past two months, he does not have much of a choice but to go along with his controversial partner, as he has no other realistic government and he was and likely will continue to be willing to sacrifice quite a lot in order to maintain power.

The question is whether such a sacrifice includes a security deterioration, and, god forbid, loss of life of an Israeli soldier or civilian.