Saturday 21 July 2018

United States leading wars around the globe


Just the other day I received this article in my mail box. I read it repeatedly and then decided to share with my readers. Many people outside Pakistan may have read it but still I want more people to read this.
Our attention has focused for the past 18 months on the alleged Russian interference in the 2016 election. If true, these seemingly heinous acts are said to strike at the very roots of American democracy. Understandably so. Someone spending $95,000 to prise out of the Democratic National Committee vaults details of how Debbie Wasserman-Schultz tried to rig the primaries in Hillary Clinton’s favor constitutes a grave threat to the integrity of the American electoral process. When we add to that offense the outrageous release of the transcript from Ms  Clinton’s highly lucrative chat with the financial heavies at Goldman Sachs, our heads swoon at the audacity of the perpetrators. So dense is this thicket, so heavily freighted with consequence, that the most diligent mind struggles to absorb it all during the lazy dog days of summer.
                       An effort to escape from this unnatural burden led me to boldly take the risk of flying UNITED toward a salubrious destination. The serenity of those ‘friendly skies’ provided the leisure to contemplate other recent news – in particular, the doings of the United States in upholding the principles of national sovereignty and political freedom elsewhere in the world. A short list of the places where we have been active follows.
Cheers
Michael Brenner

1.       In ENGLAND, Trump aggressively promoted Boris Johnson as a brilliant leader despite his direct challenge to Prime Minister Theresa May last week.
2.      Also re. ENGLANDSam Brownback, the US ambassador for international religious freedom, protested to the British Ambassador the jailing of racist agitator Tommy Robinson who targets Muslims

3.       In SCOTLAND, Trump lashed out at Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party, with a barrage of highly personal insults.

4.       In GERMANY, Trump has striven to weaken the position of Chancellor Angela Merkel through denunciations of her judgment and domestic policies

5.       IN POLAND, the Trump administration has lent its full support to the ultra-nationalist, anti-democratic government when it was facing opposition to its autocratic moves

6.       In HUNGARY, it has done the same in support of Prime Minister Viktor Orban

7.       In SAUDI ARABIA, Trump warmly embraced Crown Prince Mohammed ben-Salman despite his shake-down of other Saudi leaders and dangerous crack-down on the Shi’ite community

8.       In ECUADOR, Washington has encouraged current Prime Minister Lenin Moreno to pursue a vendetta against former President Rafael Correa because of the latter’s social democratic policies and unwillingness to kow-tow to American business interests

9.       In NICARAGUA, the United States is backing the campaign to overthrow the democratically government of Daniel Ortega

10.   In BRAZIL, the Trump administration gave its full public backing to the ‘constitutional’ coup against Prime Minister Dilma Rousseff because of her independent foreign policy line on issues that went against the grain of American policies and her mild challenge to American financial interests

11.   In ARGENTINA, the CIA/FBI connived with political foes of then president Cristina Kirchner to resurrect long discredited accusations that she was implicated somehow in the 1994  bombing of a Buenos Aires synagogue ascribed (probably falsely) to Iran. That contributed to her loss in a run-off to  Mauricio Macri – scion to one of Argentina’s biggest fortunes and graduate of Columbia Business School. 

The week after his inauguration Macri flew to New York to cede $6.5billion dollars to Wall Street hedge funds which had speculated in Argentine debt in 2001 and was being hotly contested in the courts. He also submitted to a Washington demand that he give the U.S. armed forces basing rights in PATAGONIA. The Pentagon evidently sees the base as strategic counter to a move by Russia, China or Iran to threaten America by striking through the soft underbelly of the Western Hemisphere. That is in violation of the Argentinian constitution. But, then again, isn’t that what indebted friends are for?

12.   In HONDURAS, the United States strong-armed the OAS not to penalize the government of President Juan Orlando Hernandez for its blatant rigging of the election last year

13.   In BOLIVIA, the U.S. has been conspiring with business interests and the oligarchical elite to overturn the government of reformist President Evo Morales. In the recent past, the American ambassador coordinated their efforts to topple Morales through orchestrated demonstrations in the mining and business hub of Santa Cruz.

14.   In PARAGUAY, Washington encouraged the oligarchical establishment to usurp the powers of the Presidency by impeaching the first progressive head of state in over 60 years. In 2008 the voters chose Fernando Lugo, a former Roman Catholic Bishop whose reformist policies were anathema to landed interests and big business. His governing as a Gospel Christian could not be tolerated. He therefore was duly impeached on absurd trumped-up by a simple majority vote of the Colorado Party opposition in the legislature. The elites' economic performance while in office since 1945 had as its greatest accomplishment the maintenance of the world’s only railroad still fueled by wood – evidently an attraction of some sort to the Obama administration in its promotion of a neo-Liberal economic order. 

15.   In VENEZUELA, the United States has used every weapon short of military force to overthrow the democratically elected government of President Nicolas Maduro

16.   In UKRAINE, the United States continues its military, financial, and political support for President Poroshenko whose was brought to power by an American orchestrated violent coup against his democratically elected predecessor

17.   In RUSSIA, the United States pursues a relentless campaign of slander against the democratically elected government of President Vladimir Putin and provides direct support via its embassy to opponents

18.   In LIBYA, the United States and its European allies have arbitrarily attempted to impose an ersatz government lodged on a yacht in Algiers harbor that has no popular support or legitimacy 

19.   In SYRIA, the United States has stationed troops against the will of the sovereign government in Damascus and provides material support to jihadist opponents (al-Qaeda & Assoc) fighting to overturn it.

20.   In IRAN, Trump leads a thinly concealed campaign to overthrow the current government

21.   In YEMEN, the United States has chosen sides in a civil war that involves participation in a homicidal air campaign carried out by Saudi Arabia and other outside parties

22.   In the PHILIPPINES, Trump personally has bolstered President Rodrigo Duterte in his program to build a lawless autocracy

23.   In SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, the United States is actively involved in the internal politics of a dozen or so countries

24.   In LEBANON, The United States has been relentlessly engaged in a campaign to consolidate the power of its US-dependent government led by Rafik Hariri and to undercut Hezbullah and President Aoun

25.   In AFGHANISTAN…..

26.   In IRAQ…

25 -  INFINITY

Then, lest we forget, there are the sub rosa programs of the United States to strengthen democracy world-wide. One: the comprehensive surveillance of electronic communications globally. The product upon occasion makes its way into the hands of our favorites in the political game of other countries. Two: we regularly conduct drone strikes on persons WE determine are a menace to somebody else’s welfare and serenity, e.g. in Pakistan, Libya. By some stretch of the imagination, killings by HELLFIRE missile on their own soil, too, might be considered political interference. Three: more specifically, cyber attacks on sensitive computers and data banks, e.g. STUXNET in Iran

Monday 16 July 2018

Pakistan’s placement in grey list by FATF is nothing but arm twisting

Reportedly Pakistan’s name has been added to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) "Grey-list". The overwhelming reaction to this move is being termed "arm-twisting" to add to the woes of the country already suffering from serious balance of payment crisis. A point worth exploring is that there is no official FATF terminology segregating countries into grey or black lists, Pakistan has never been identified as a potential risk to the international financial system, even after 9/11 and often being accused of supporting the various militant groups.

I am being inclined to refer to a report by Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities. The brokerage house has taken a cues from the    2008-14 period (public identification/monitoring status), a termed the report a non-event in terms of crucial flashpoints on the macro-front, namely: 1) Foreign ownership of equities, 2) economic assistance, 3) workers’ remittances and 3) foreign exchange reserves. Reflective of the same, the benchmark index has recovered strongly in the recent past. Post clarity regarding the FATF decision (expected by Saturday 30th June). Investor’s risk-reward profile would soon align with more dominant economic (interest rate hikes, further devaluation prospects) and ongoing electioneering.

In the backdrop of the US foreign policy with narrowing space for Pakistan and post the first plenary meeting of FATF in Feb 2018, news reports started highlighting that FATF has decided to place Pakistan back on its watch list for AML/CFT weaknesses.  The perception in Pakistan is that such news reports have been more disparaging with a tinge of exaggeration (particularly in regional and local outlets) which are not only baseless and not rooted in published reports of international organizations of repute (OECD, WB, IMF and Basel Institute of Governance). However, parsing through all FATF publications CY18TD including documentation released by the FATF after its February 2018 meeting show that Pakistan is not mentioned at all, particularly in a negative light or deficient category. That said, Pakistan has not taken the threat of being included in the watch-list seriously as it has since then taking action against non-complaints, introduce various legislations, reforms and protocols to strengthen its AML/CFT framework.

One of the immediate response is that international standards are not created equal: On a broader note, comparing Pakistan's rankings on similar global international AML/CFT benchmarks by global agencies (Basel Institute, OECD), brokerage house finds domestic regulations (post 2015) stringent enough to counter long-term structural deficiencies (grey financial flows, hawala/hundi, low financial inclusion and sub-par lending practices). The Recent efforts by the GoP have been more proactive in market by Pakistan's inclusion in the OECD's Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax matters giving weight to GoP's measures (amnesty schemes, increasing declarations of foreign assets, raising the tax net).

Despite Pakistan’s placement in "Grey-list", foreign participation is largely expected to remain immune. Removing outliers (early 2009 period post market freeze), foreign ownership of equities gradually increased during the review period ranging between a little over 6% in 2008 to over 8% by end-2014. In absolute Pak Rupee /US$ terms, foreign ownership increased considerably during this period.

Economic Assistance is likely to continue keeping in view the past practices. Over the years, disbursements by bilateral/multilateral agencies have averaged US$1.3 billion to US$2.3 billion annually (excluding the 3-year SDR4.4bn/US$6.2bn IMF program approved in September 2013). Even though disbursements remained weak during the 2011-2013 period, it is unlikely that Pakistan's status under the FATF had a tangible bearing on economic assistance. That said, overall assistance (including capital mobilization through floating foreign bonds, commercial borrowing and the IMF) improved substantially during the 2008-2014 period.          .

Worker's Remittances continue to play an important role in containing current account deficit, despite ever increasing imports and paltry exports. Stringent KYC/AML/CFT protocols have certainly increased the cost of transactions, inward remittances increased substantially over the years, indicating that inclusion in the FATF grey list may not have a material impact on the cost of inward remittances.

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves increased to US$18.6 billion at the end of FY15 from US$11.3 billion in FY08. This also indicates that the Government of Pakistan (GoP) was able to keep an adequate level to support imports and other official outflows. Reserves also received a boost in FY13 after Pakistan signed a 3-year IMF program worth US$6.2 billion.   

Risk of Pakistan facing economic sanctions would include a reconsideration of all business relationships with Pakistan by global financial institutions and any attempt to put Pakistan along with North Korea and Iran is totally absurd. Additionally, parsing through global financial standard authorities rankings, Pakistan is given an AML index score of 6.64 (out of ten where lower is better) giving 4/46 rank in South Asia/Globally out of 6/146 countries by The Basel Institute for Governance. Moreover, recent efforts by the GoP have been more proactive in addressing these deficiencies where Pakistan's inclusion in the OECD's Multilateral Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax matters (news reports indicate information sharing with tax authorities to commence from September'18) gives weight to GoP's "big-ticket".

Having a strong faith in the robustness of Pakistan’s financial system and the ongoing efforts to improve it the country’s placement in "Grey-list" is nothing but "arm-twisting". It is more than obvious that the US policies towards Afghanistan, Syria, Iran, China, EU countries and NAFTA members are aimed at establishing its hegemony around the world.

Saturday 7 July 2018

Pakistan Democracy on the Rough Terrain



On Friday, the last day of the week ended 6th July 2018, the accountability court announced its verdict imposing severe punishments and hefty fines on Nawaz Sharif (elected prime minister of Pakistan for the third time) and his family members. The decision is likely to severely impact general elections scheduled for 25th July 2018. There is a saying that history repeats itself. I am obliged to offer readers one of my articles written as back as April 2015. Its title was “Pakistan Democracy on the Rough Terrain”. To read details please click http://shkazmipk.com/democracy-in-pakistan/