Iranians seeking greater freedoms have voted for President
Hassan Rouhani, to secure second term. However, he is likely to face resistance
by the hardliner.
There is perception that Rouhani will face more pressure in
his second term as it is feared that the hardliners will create more problems
for him.
Rouhani has decisively defeated Khamenei's protégé, hard-line
judge Ebrahim Raisi, but the supreme leader still makes the ultimate decisions
on policy, and his conservative faction still controls the judiciary and
security forces.
They (hardliners) may re-assert their dominance at home by more
confrontation abroad, by extending Iran's interventions in Iraq, Syria and
elsewhere in the Middle East. They also fear more confrontational policy with
the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
However, certain quarters believe that since economy is the
top priority of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Rouhani's liberal economic policies
are likely to get his endorsement, like the cautious support he got for the
nuclear deal.
Rouhani, landslide victory in 2013 was on a promise to
reduce Iran's diplomatic isolation, spent most of his time on the nuclear
agreement with six powers that resulted in a lifting of most sanctions in
return for curbs on Tehran's nuclear program.
Rouhani will have to find an accommodation with them, or end
up like his reformist predecessor Mohammad Khatami, who whetted Iranians'
appetite for change but failed to deliver it during two terms from 1997-2005.
The silver lining is that Rouhani has built his reputation
as an establishment figure who could deliver some of the aims sought by
reformists without alienating conservatives.
The added advantage is, Rouhani is a regime insider. He is
loyal to the establishment. He is not a reformist but a bridge between
hardliners and reformists.
No comments:
Post a Comment