Pak-US Relationships: Shifting Paradigm

With the caretaker setup being installed, there is an urgent need to revisit Pakistan-US relationships. Analysis of the prevailing situation has becomes all the more important as critics seem to be divided into two distinct but opposite groups, one saying United States need Pakistan's support and second trying to prove that Pakistan needs US support to overcome internal and external threats facing the country.

However, both the groups strongly believe that musty relationship could prove detrimental for both the countries. After the commencement of withdrawal of US-led Nato troops and other hardware from Afghanistan, there is need for safe passage and speedy and cost effective movement.

No one can deny the fact that Pakistan offers the most cost effective route. Therefore, it is suggested that United States must avoid any encounter with the groups that consider it 'Occupier of Afghanistan'. However, the main concern remains fusty relationship between the US and Karzai administrations.

In such a prevailing scenario there are growing fears that some of the Afghan warlords may intensify their attacks on Nato troops and even on Afghan forces. One of the positive points is that both the US and Pakistan governments are trying to improve relationship by removing the irritants.

However, commencement of work on Pakistani portion of Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline has been taken by the US administration an act that makes Pakistan liable for imposition of economic sanctions. Most of the experts are of the consensus that since Pakistan needs to overcome its energy crisis US administration must not oppose this project.

The pipeline offers a reliable and cost effective solution for Pakistan’s looming energy crisis that is adversely affecting its economy and GDP growth rate. Experts are also of the consensus that an economically strong Pakistan can help in maintaining peace and also ushering economic activities in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of Nato forces.

Any adverse decision can intensify anti-US sentiments and imposition of economic sanctions on Pakistan could lead to poor law and order situation that may delay general elections in the country. Any unrest in Pakistan can also cause disruption in the movement of Nato troops and hardware through Pakistan.

Over the years Pakistan has been able to weed out militants and contain their movement across the border and any lapse could prove fatal for the three stakeholders: Nato, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Unfortunately, support of the rebel groups in Arabian Peninsula, North Africa and Syria has proved beyond any doubt that United States has been supplying funds and arms to the groups. Now it is also being said in Pakistan that United States is supporting those militant groups that are busy is creating ethnic divide and sectarian killing.

In fact there is complete consensus that those undertaking sabotage activities and killing people are funded by the external elements and often fingers are pointed at United States, India and Israel.

Some of the quarters have been demanding that United States should provide extra funds to Pakistan for purchasing arsenal to secure its common borders with Afghanistan and India.

As against this, there is a growing realization that improving relationship among Pakistan, Afghanistan and India is more important than accumulating arms. Living constantly under state of war and spending billions of dollars has yielded no result. The time has come to develop better understandings among these countries to ensure more spending on the welfare of people.

Iran Pakistan gas pipeline: Another point of view

I am pleased to place this article published in eurasiareview http://www.eurasiareview.com. Its title is Iran Viewpoint: Washington Angry over Tehran-Islamabad Gas Pipeline Agreement. It has been originally printed in Iran Review, a Tehran-based site that claims to be independent, non-governmental and non-partisan and representing scientific and professional approaches towards Iran’s political, economic, social, religious, and cultural affairs, its foreign policy, and regional and international issues within the framework of analysis and articles.

The final phase of the Iran – Pakistan gas pipeline project, which is to be built on the Pakistani soil, was launched in a ceremony attended by Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Pakistani counterpart, Asif Ali Zardari, on Monday, March 11, 2013. The first section of the pipeline, which runs over 900 kilometers from Iran’s Assaluyeh region to the city of Iranshahr in Sistan and Baluchestan Province had been inaugurated about one and a half years ago. Construction of the second section of the pipeline with the total length of 120 km, which runs from the southeastern Iranian city of Iranshahr to Pakistani border, started last year. The last tranche of the pipeline on the Pakistani soil is expected to be finished in the next two years.

This project is of high significance to both countries. Construction of a pipeline for the export of Iran’s natural gas to its eastern neighbor is of special importance to Islamabad because Pakistan is facing serious energy crunch. The problem was even worse during this winter when some Pakistani cities experienced power cuts which at times lasted up to 18-20 hours a day. In addition, many Pakistani plants, especially those related to the country’s textile industry, had to shut down their operations as a result of sever energy shortage. When looked at from this viewpoint, it is clear that the gas pipeline from Iran will be able to guarantee long-term and secure energy flow to Pakistan.

On the other hand, in view of special conditions of Iran and the sanctions which have been imposed against the Islamic Republic during the last year, the country has been facing difficulties for selling its energy resources. As a result, this pipeline will help Tehran to go around sanctions and will be of serious help to Iran under the existing economic conditions.

In addition to long-term economic benefits which Iran is bent on achieving through presence in global energy markets, the pipeline is of high importance to Iran from a political viewpoint as well. The West, especially the United States, has been putting pressure on many countries to dissuade them from concluding oil and gas contracts with Iran. They had also put tremendous pressures on the governments of India and Pakistan to make them abandon the energy deal with Iran.

It was due to the high importance of the project that Iran was even ready to give concessions to Pakistan to go on with the construction of the gas pipeline. As a result, the Islamic Republic accepted to grant 500 million US dollars as credit in loan to Islamabad to be spent on the construction of pipeline by Pakistan. Before that, the two countries had differences over this issue, which were resolved through the final agreement.

Due to the above facts, the pipeline project can get the two neighboring countries engaged in a very important project which will not only serve the interests of both countries, but will also have an obviously positive impact on bilateral relations between Tehran and Islamabad.

Despite all the above facts, the pipeline had been originally designated as the “Peace Pipeline” because it was supposed to be built through cooperation among Iran, Pakistan and India. However, despite extensive plans and a whole decade of negotiations, the project was finally aborted. So, why the project is currently being implemented in the absence of India?

In reality, India initially agreed to the project, but it finally abandoned it for two major reasons. The first reason was that the Indian officials did not want the pipeline to cross through Pakistan soil. The Indian officials were concerned that in case of possible future tension in relations between Islamabad and New Delhi, Pakistan may use the pipeline as a means of putting pressure on India by cutting off the gas flow.

Therefore, India proposed that the pipeline should be built under the sea. Indian officials noted that the pipeline may run on the ground up to the Iranian border with Pakistan in Gwadar region of Iran’s Chabahar city. Thenceforth, the pipeline was supposed to go under the sea and continue toward the Indian city of Mumbai. Implementing the project in that way would have been both too costly, and needed cutting-edge technology which was not available even to India and could be only provided by a few European countries and the United States.

The second reason which dissuaded India from taking part in the project was that New Delhi would have to pay a transit fee of about 350 million dollars per year to Pakistan for the transit of gas while India was by no means willing to boost the economic strength of its rival neighbor. Therefore, India was very hesitant about taking part in the project due to the aforesaid reasons.

Of course, the United States’ opposition and Washington’s pressure on New Delhi to abandon the project also influenced India’s decision. Although this does not mean that India’s decision has been totally influenced by the US pressure, in reality, the contract signed between the United States and India according to which Washington is supposed to build 13 nuclear power plants for India had greatly increased India’s doubt about being part of the Peace Pipeline project.

The Indian officials reached the conclusion – on the basis of a loss and benefit estimate – to give priority to their national interests and go on with the agreement they had already signed with the United States at the cost of withdrawing from the Peace Pipeline project. This, however, does not mean that the issue of the Peace Pipeline has been forgotten for good and ever in India. The Indians look at it as an open case which may be followed up in the future in order to forge a deal with Iran over its natural gas resources. At any rate, it should not be forgotten that as a result of very rapid economic development in India, the country’s demand for energy is very high and that demand is sure to skyrocket in the future.

Therefore, I believe that the Indians will first take that concession from the United States and then they will enter into a deal with Iran on the basis of their national interests. In doing so, they will conclude the pipeline contract with Iran in order to extend the Iran – Pakistan pipeline up to India and take advantage of Iran’s natural gas resources.

Of high importance in this regard is the close rivalry between India and China. It is noteworthy that China has made hefty investment in Gwadar region. Therefore, in case of a good opportunity and if a suitable price is offered for gas and the project’s cost seems feasible, China might be willing for the pipeline to further travel to Tibet by crossing Karakoram Mountains.

This will be a problem for India in the long run as its rival will be able to take advantage of the pipeline. This is especially true as China’s need to energy continues to soar in coming years. Therefore, India is sure to strike a deal with Iran in the long run over the latter country’s gas resources. In the short term, however, India will stay away from the project as long as the United States has not built the aforesaid nuclear power plants for India.

US can’t afford to antagonize Pakistan

Over the years Pakistan has been fighting proxy US war in Afghanistan, not because of any love for Afghans or even to please the super power. It has been dragged into it and one could sum up the negotiations in before US assault on Afghanistan in one sentence ‘either you are with us or with our enemies’. At that time Pakistan had no option but to bow down as India was ready to join the US crusade. By that time Pakistan was also facing enduring economic sanctions for undertaking ‘nuclear test in 1998 and the probability was that refusal to join the war may also lead to air strikes on Pakistan’s sensitive installations.

On this Monday, Iranian Presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari jointly inaugurated the work on the of 780-km Pakistani segment of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline in the Iranian port city of Chahbahar. The point to be noted is that in this city India is constructing a sea port which is also being linked with Central Asia via Afghanistan on which the United States has never raised any objection. In fact it may be said that India is doing this under the instructions of United States which wants an alternative route, other than through Pakistan.

As I have said earlier United States is once again following .carrot and stock policy’. Victoria Nuland of the US State Department on one hand warns Islamabad that its cooperation with Tehran falls under the Iran Sanctions Act, which means that Pakistan may face a ban on its transactions through American banks and that U.S. military and other aid to Pakistan may be curtailed. She also plays the mantra that the US administration is willing to offer other alternatives, but little has been done to date.

Pakistan is rightly demanding its treatment at par with India, if it has to quite Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, this could be done on only one condition supply of nuclear technology for civilian use. The US has offered this to India in exchange for deserting the gas pipeline project.

This morning I got another inspiration after reading an article in eurasiareview quoting Russian analyst Maxim Minayev of the Civic Society Development Foundation on the matter. He said “I don’t think that Washington will cut its military aid to Islamabad as long as the Afghan campaign continues. The aid is meant to strengthen Pakistan’s defense capacity, particularly against radical Islamist groups. Speaking about Pakistani-US relations, one should bear in mind the potential of those who oversee them in the White House, namely US Secretary of State John Kerry and Vice President Joseph Biden. I think that such players will manage to create additional opportunities for the White House in terms of minimizing the impact of the Pakistani-Iranian pipeline project”.

In his view impositions of sanctions may have the opposite effect. If Washington curtails political and military cooperation with Islamabad, the latter will move to expand ties with China. That’s not what the White House wants. There will be a general elections in Pakistan in May with the ruling Pakistan People’s Party facing a tough challenge from the Muslim League-Nawaz led by ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Both the parties are campaigning on the promises to ease the country’s energy crisis that has reduced its GDP growth rate to around 2.5%. Therefore, any party that wins majority or form coalition government, its first priority will be to resolve looming energy crisis.

In fact President Asif Ali Zardari has won hearts of Pakistanis once again by transferring control of Gwadar port to China and commencing work on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Any effort by the United States to create hurdle in smooth working of these two projects could raise two popular demands: 1) Pakistan should immediately pull itself out of US proxy war and 2) stopping movement of Nato supplies through Pakistan with immediate effect. I hope the US government just can’t afford either one.

I also tend to agree with Russian Orientalist Sergei Druzhilovsky. He believes that the project will go ahead, no matter who wins the election. All the more so that Iran has already built its 900-km segment of the pipeline and hopes to extend it into India. For Pakistan, gas transit means handsome profits. The latter circumstance must have outweighed the alternatives proposed by Saudi Arabia and the United States. Last May, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar made clear Islamabad would not yield to pressure over the pipeline.

Pakistan needs gas to keep its thermal power plants running and industries operating at optimum capacity utilization. Last but not the least Pakistan has a right to demand that the United States should first impose economic sanctions on India for buying oil from Iran, constructing Chahbahar seaport and rail and road network in Iran.

Pakistan makes two bold decisions

Lately, Pakistan has made two very bold but strategic decisions, which will never be liked by regional and global super powers. These are: 1) transferring management of Gwadar port located in Balochistan to China and 2) ground breaking and initiating work on Pakistani side of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.

This ceremony was jointly performed by Pakistani and Iranian presidents. Both presidents were accompanied at the ground-breaking by delegations comprising ministers, top officials as well as representatives of several Arab states.

While Pakistanis have appreciated both the decisions, certain quarters within and outside Pakistan are extremely announced. In fact the opponents just don't want the two neighbors to enjoy amicable and mutually beneficial relationship.

Among the opponents United States is at the top and many of the countries from Arabian Peninsula are also playing the US mantra. Some of them even term ‘Iran a bigger threat as compared to Israel’. These countries are extending full support to the United States to crush Iran by imposing sanctions and continuing ban on export of its oil. Iran is among the top three largest oil producing countries.

One can understand hue and cry of India on the transfer of management control of Gwadar port to China. The reason is simple; India has invested billions of dollars on the construction of Chabahar port, rail and road links up to Central Asia via Afghanistan.

If Gwadar port becomes fully operational importance of Chabahar port would be undermined to a large extent. However, this was known to India when it initiated the project. However, developing an alternate route up to Central Asia via Afghanistan was considered a must and India was fully supported by the United States in this endeavor, at no stage India was even warned of possible sanctions.

Withdrawal of Nato combat soldiers, armaments and other sensitive equipment has started through Pakistan, which is not liked by India because no traffic is being diverted to Chabahar port.

In such a scenario involvement of Indian intelligence agencies in any sabotage activities in Pakistan can't be ruled out. Repeatedly, it has been established that the perpetrators are neither Taliban nor the members of any other militant outfits.

Those who attacked Peshawar airbase were certainly not Taliban and so were those who attacked Mehran Naval base in Karachi. Similarly, burning of houses of Christians was also an act of those who want the international community to show that minorities are not safe in Pakistan.

It is on record that parts of many Muslim countries have been axed to create countries for minorities. These groups are already busy in creating disturbances in Bangladesh.

Pakistan's enemies know well that its economic activities can only be brought to grinding halt by creating unrest and disrupting economic activities.

Completion of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and construction of mega oil refinery at Gwadar will establish Pakistan as energy corridor.

China certainly has economic interest because using Gwadar port will reduced the distance to less than 2000km from existing around 6,000km. This will not only help in saving billions of dollars freight but also ensure security of the products being carried.

Many of the countries, including United States and India don't approve this arrangement. Pakistan will not only get access to energy supplies but will also be able to earn millions of dollars as transit fee.

On top of that Pakistan will also be able to offer efficient and cost effective transit facilities to Afghanistan, which will undermine importance of India.

Over the years and during the war on terror Pakistan has been meeting energy requirement of Nato forces. As such Afghanistan has no oil refinery and it is likely to remain dependent on Pakistan for many years to come.

 Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline ground breaking

Arrangements have been made for the ceremony that would mark the start of work on Pakistani portion of Iranian-Pakistani gas pipeline. This is over 780 kilometer long and ran into snags due to pressure from the United States and difficulties in mobilizing funds. This portion of pipeline is estimated to cost US$1.5 billion and Iran has promised to provide one-third or US$500 million. The portion of pipeline on the Iranian side has almost been completed.

Pakistani leadership is showing determination and made it clear that it would complete the venture. The country seems to be enjoying support from China and Russia on this issue as since last two years Pak-Russia relations have entered in new phase and China is Pakistan’s old dearest friend. Lately, President Zardari has said Pakistan is a sovereign country and has the right to pursue projects in national interest and does not intend to offend anyone

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari will jointly inaugurate the pipeline construction work today (Monday). The ceremony will be held in the Iranian coastal city of Chabahar. Both the presidents will also sign an accord for 400,000 barrel per day capacity oil refinery to be established at Gwadar. Some of heads of states and other dignitaries also expected to attend the ceremony.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Moazzam Ahmad Khan has said,"We are not in a fix, we are very clear about it that the pipeline is in our national interest being an energy deficient country," Khan said, while hoping that the US would show "more understanding" on Pakistan's decision to go ahead with the pipeline. "Yes, we know about their concerns but hope our friends, including the US, will understand our economic compulsions," said Khan.

Brushing aside concerns and pressures of the United States, the spokesman said the whole world should realize that the project was being commissioned purely to meet economic needs of the country and was being executed by two sovereign states.

“The government is initialing this important project in view of the energy requirements. The project will bring economic prosperity, provide better opportunities to the people and help defeat militancy,” he said.

Iranian clergymen protest

against massacres of Shias in Pakistan

On Saturday, a large number of Iranian clerics and seminary teachers and students staged a demonstration in Tehran to condemn the recent bloody massacres of Shias in Pakistan.

Violence against Shia Muslims has escalated in various parts of Pakistan over the past few months. Since the beginning of 2012, hundreds of Shias have been killed in the country.

In the latest terrorist bombing targeting Shias, a suicide bomber attacked Shia Muslims as they were leaving a mosque in the Pakistani city of Karachi on March 3, killing at least 45 people.

The Iranian clerics called on the relevant international organizations to take the measures necessary to end violence against Shia Muslims in Pakistan. 

The demonstrators chanted slogans “Rise up Muslims; Pakistan is in flames,” “Any Muslim’s silence is betrayal of the Quran,” “Down with Israel,” and “Down with the United States.”   

 State Inspectorate Organization Director Mostafa Pourmohammadi delivered a speech at the demonstration in which he said, “Today, in Pakistan and other countries, women and children who are mourning and saying prayers are attacked.

Bombing attacks occur in Iraq and war rages in Syria… They also attack us, carry out assassination, and make threats to force us to back down and stop… (But) today, thanks to the Islamic Republic of Iran, Islam is going up the ladder of growth and progress, and the situation is in our favor.” 

Remember killers has no religion

Pakistanis strongly believe that the ‘imported militants’ who claim to be the true Muslims are the worst enemies of Muslims and the agents of enemies of Islam. They are adamant at killing people to plunge the country into anarchy and ultimately into the civil war. Their sole objective is to kill people.

Over the years they have been killing Shias and Sunnis to create an impression of sectarian rift, which no Pakistani is willing to accept. They have also tried linguistic divide. They collect booty and indulge in kidnapping for ransom only to collect money to buy arms. They also get funds and arms from outside.

This evening I had gone to a family friend’s house for the condolence of his grandfather. 

When I reached home two news reports virtually shattered my nerves, first a blast at a mosque in Peshawar and second burning of houses of Christians in Lahore. News reporters may give these killings and burnings any angle but it is brutal and media must say in loud and clear words that killers are not Muslims and must be punished.

According to initial report in the explosion inside a mosque in Peshawar at least five people have been killed and 29 others injured. The blast took place inside the mosque and the device was planted near the front row of the congregation and people were getting ready to pray when the blast occurred.

Peshawar, the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, has been the site of several terrorist attacks in recent months. The city is surrounded by tribal regions where Al Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban militants are said to have hideouts.

In another incident an enraged mob torched dozens of houses located in a Christian-dominated neighborhood of Lahore. Fearing for their safety, hundreds of Christian families have fled the area.

The mob attacked the houses in Lahore, Punjab’s capital following allegations of blasphemy against a Christian man. It appeared that the man had been falsely accused of blasphemy but the police was forced to register a case to placate the mob, a local police official said.

Speaking to a private television channel, Punjab Law Minister Rana Sanaullah said the accused was in police custody. Sanaullah said all those involved in the arson would be arrested, adding that his government would try to rehabilitate the affected Christian families.

Rana Sanaullah is not alone, president, prime minister, chief ministers, governors and even political leaders issue such stereo type statements, and no culprit is arrested or punished. All are acquitted by honorable courts because of lack of evidence.