Sunday, 6 May 2018

Talk about re-imposition of sanctions on Iran an attempt to create storm in a teacup

Lately, the western media, controlled and run by Zionists, has been talking about re-imposition of economic sanctions on Iran, as 12th May is approaching. The move has been initiated by the US president and many ‘me too’ are trying to please him. The crusade is led by Israeli prime minister, who is licking wounds caused to Israel in Lebanon by Hezbollah. The US is also adamant at taking revenge of its defeat in Syria, where it also faced Hezbollah. The west is never tired of accusing Hezbollah being supported by Iran but it is in no way part of Islamic Revolutionary Grads of Iran.   
The US commentators have very cunningly convinced OPEC led by Saudi Arabia to curtail crude oil output which has resulted in 1) substantial increase in crude oil price and 2) significant hike in the output by the US and Russia. At present, Saudi Arabia has slipped to third position in terms of daily oil output. The US has also emerged as one of the major exporter of crude oil. Therefore, Iran with a daily export of 2.6 million barrel has become ‘of no consequence’. Even if export of oil from Iran is stopped completely completely, it would be compensated by other producers very quickly.     
As a daily ritual, I have to write a few lines on commodities market and factors driving their prices. The most bizarre part is writing about the factors driving crude oil prices. The usual jargons used are increase/decrease in rig count in the US, movement in US stock piles, turmoil in Venezuela and MENA (countries including Iraq, Libya, Nigeria). Little reference is made to investment by hedge funds.  
I still remember once taking part in a live panel discussion on factors driving crude oil prices (more than ten years ago) I had said, “The price of crude oil may be driven by any factor, but certainly not by demand and supply”.  I could see the signs of disgust on the face of moderator. After the show was over he even went to the extent of saying, “Mr. Kazmi, today you said something which sounded totally absurd and I could have responded. However, I kept quiet and gave you benefit of doubt.”
Moral of the story is developed economies, through hedge funds make millions of dollars through movement in crude oil prices. To achieve their target they often breach agreements. Super powers are notorious for breaching the agreements to achieve their ulterior motives. Therefore, re-imposition of sanction on Iran will not be a surprise but an example of yet another blatant violation. However, they must not forget that even stopping oil export from Iran completely will neither make an immediate difference for Iran nor sky rocket the oil prices.

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