Saturday, 4 July 2015

What can derail P5+1 negotiation with Iran?

Experts say that P5+1 negotiation with Iran are the outcome of paradigm shift in the US foreign policy. The US seems to have lost interest in the Middle East and wants to focus more on South China Sea emerging saga. However, it still wants to protect the interest of its old allies in the Middle East, who feel deprived after the US attained the status of largest crude oil producing country.
With the July 9th, the real deadline for the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 approaching fast, the critics of the Lausanne Nuclear Framework Agreement in Washington and Tehran has stepped up their criticism. The foreign ministers of world powers are likely to clinch an accord they hope will end a 13-year standoff.
The time has come P5+1 group should take a sensitive and historical decision and choose between an agreement or imposition of new sanctions on Iran. It is encouraging that both the sides want to put an end to an unnecessary and lingering crisis that should have been resolved a long time ago. The positive point is that in spite of all the remaining differences in these last hours, the negotiators have never been so close to a long lasting solution. However, reaching a consensus does not look definite as yet.
The Iranian foreign minister has rightly said that reaching an agreement requires courage to compromise, self-assertiveness to be flexible, maturity to take logical decisions, wisdom to abandon illusions and audacity to break old habits. He claims that logic is winning over illusion because super powers have finally understood that pressure and threat just can’t yield long lasting solutions, but increase tensions and enmities.
Many may tend to agree that imposition of the cruelest economic sanctions against Iran has not helped the opponents of its nuclear program in achieving their objective that is the reason they chose to negotiate. Iran has repeatedly expressed its readiness for reaching a good and balanced agreement and open new prospects to fight emerging challenges, the worst being extremism a common threat against the entire world.
It is necessary to understand that some of the concerns expressed by Iranians are but natural. They say the deal limiting R&D is an act of imposing sanctioning. Iranian apprehensions are being interpreted by the West as its pulling back from the commitments under the framework of agreement.
The biggest thorn is Iranian strongly believe that the US, keeping in view its history of animosity with Iran, cannot be trusted to abide by its commitments.  Their doubts are entrenched in the belief that the IAEA is untrustworthy because of being an American tool.
Those watching the negotiations closely say that allowing the foreign inspectors to get any time to any sensitive Iranian site violates Iran’s sovereignty and makes its national security secrets vulnerable. They also oppose allowing Iranian scientists to be interrogated given the track record of several Iranian scientists having been assassinated by Israeli intelligence.
Iranian critics also believe that Lausanne agreement prevents Iran from meeting its practical domestic energy needs on time. The current contract Iran has with Russia to provide fuel for its nuclear power plant in Bushehr will expire in 2021. After the expiry of this contract Iran will not be able to operate this power plant as being stipulated in the Lausanne agreement.

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