Syria: US War Mania

It seems that after having failed in mulling support from other countries, except Saudi Arabia for attack on Syria the United States is intends to undertake the assault at its own, even contrary to the wishes of US citizens.

The major setback came when British Parliament rejected the move and other countries also followed its footprints. The decision of the Britain parliament should have been an eye opener for the sole surviving super power.

It is feared that any direct involvement of United States can plunge many countries in a zero sum game that has became the hallmark of the US foreign and military policies. At present US soldiers wearing combat uniform are present in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and their sole purpose seems to be killing the locals rather than maintain peace.

Ironically, the US Congress has hardly asked its President and his advisers why do they wish to bring regime change, topple governments and worst of all keep on supplying arms to the rebels in various countries.

The US administration hasn’t learn any lesson even after the killing of its ambassadors/diplomats, the most recent being in Libya and earlier in the blowing up of aircraft of Pakistan’s President Ziaul Haq.

A closer look at the ongoing proxy US war in Syria, clearly establishes that despite supplying millions of dollars and tons or lethal weapons to the rebels President Assad has remained in power.

Over the last two years nearly one hundred thousand Syrians have been killed and the entire country has become a heap of debris.

It is feared that the rebels supported by the US have used gas with an ultimate objective of maligning Assad’s regime. This perception seems to carry weight if one looks at whatever has happened in the recent in Egypt.

The United States followed it often repeated mantra of declaring Hosni Mubarak, a failed and corrupt ruler, only after after he became redundant.

Elections were held and public verdict came contrary to the US expectations, it was never thought that Muslim Brotherhood could win the election.

First attempts were made to keep Morsi under pressure but ultimately Egyptian Army Chief was asked to topple and arrest the elected president. When public came out on streets army was advised by the US to open fire and now army chief is being used as scapegoat.

It has been highlighted repeatedly that a proxy war is being fought in Syria, where most of the countries aspiring to be the regional or world super powers are supporting Syria, only because they want to inflict defeat on the United States, the sole surviving super power.

Ironically, the US is losing its patience because it considered Assad another Saddam. It may not be wrong to say that since Saddam killed hundreds and thousands of Iraqis, he had lost public support, as against that Assad continues to enjoy support of Syrians. 

One needs to find reply to a question, why the US is adamant at destroying Syria?

The reply is simple without destroying Syria the United States can’t get the entire region under its claws. The involvement of Russia, China, some GCC countries, Iran and Lebanon has made it difficult for the US to get a walkover.

Not only that the US is getting desperate its also completely ignoring the possible fallout of attack on Syria.

Even a small mistake can destroy peace of the region and also affect countries that have been supporting terrorism around the globe, in the name of Jihad.

Pakistan’s Survival at Stake

Killing of around 100 people is less than 24 hours in selected cities of Pakistan clearly shows that there is some thing grossly wrong, which even the rulers are not able to understand. Some cynics say the rulers understand the ground realities but can’t take any action against the perpetrators. Attacks on security personnel are a clear indication that insurgents are openly challenging writ of the government.

Sunday’s attacks seem to be aimed at proving a few points the most important being; if personnel of security services are not safe or can’t protect themselves, how can they protect ordinary people and more importantly frontiers of the country?

Perpetrators are trying to create breach between Sunnis and Shias, which is purely foreign agenda. The countries keen in maintaining their hegemony have exploited this in Iraq and Afghanistan but are facing a lot of resistance in Syria.

Over the last four decades the external forces have created fanatics in Pakistan, who consider all others Muslims ‘inferior’ and are also killing people belonging to minorities, indiscriminately.

Ironically, some of the political parties still have soft corner for these fanatics and are suggesting negotiations with them rather than taking stern action against them. One completely fails to understand the logic as these fanatics openly claim responsibility of killing but some quarters are still insisting on negotiations.

One of the points of concern is that since 2001 these perpetrators have killed people and the number ranges from 40,000 to 80,000. However, the most regrettable point is that under the prevailing system not even one perpetrator has been punished.

Ironically, those at the helm of affairs have not been able to distinguish between political activist and militants. They also fail to recognize the fact that around the world rebel groups are created, provided fund and arms only to plunge the countries into anarchy.

One need not go through the history but a closer look at whatever is happening in Egypt, Turkey and Syria is enough to open eyes of Pakistanis. When Hosni Mubarak became redundant a movement was sponsored against him and general elections were also held. Now the same external powers have facilitated dismissal Muhammad Morsi. Almost a similar story is being enacted in Turkey.

These external powers have been supporting rebels in Syria for last two years and nearly 90,000 innocent people have been killed. Interestingly, the external forces are still blaming the Syrian government for these killings but at no point accept the fact that they are responsible for these killings.

At times it is being felt that this world is being ruled by mad people who have only one objective, how to kill more people? On the face value, these people look most respectable, as they own businesses worth trillions of dollars, in reality they are ‘merchants of death’. They are the sellers of lethal weapons and are always busy in creating conflicts among people and countries so that they can sell more arms.

Historically, Pakistan has remained in focus because of its location as it is surrounded by three most volatile countries i.e. Afghanistan, India and Iran. The global and regional super powers have special attraction for all these countries and wish to further consolidate their position by following centuries old saying “Divide and Rule”.

Pakistan: Dilemma of Policy Planners

With every passing day the conviction seems to be getting stronger that PML-N government headed by Mian Nawaz Sharif hardly has any sense of priority. Many of its announced plans lack coherence and at the best can be termed wishful thinking and worst of all complacency is based on perceptions rather than ground realities.

The country is suffering from severe balance of payment crisis, which demands following multi pronged strategy, negotiations with International Monetary Fund (IMF) being the top priority. It seems the government has hardly done any homework prior to commencing negotiations with the lender of last resort.

Those at the helm of affairs suffer from the illusion that the United States needs Pakistan rather than realizing the harsh reality that India is being promoted as regional super power and also being assigned an important role in Afghanistan after the pullout of US-led Nato forces.

The entire focus of Senator Ishaq Dar seems to be on mobilizing additional taxes and withdrawing subsidies.  PML-N government has been talking about resolution of circular debt issue by borrowing more but completely ignoring the urgent need to overcome the two most contentious issues: rampant pilferage and poor recovery. Injection of billion of rupees may reduce the debt for the time being but it will reappear soon.

Some of the analysts are of the view that Mian Sahib is surrounded by people having vested interest, seeking funds on concessional terms for establishing power generation facilities. These analysts also believe that another ‘power scam’ is in the making.

To substantiate their argument they say that the country has installed capacity of over 28,000MW but actual utilization hovers at less than half. Therefore, the top priority should be running of power powers at optimum capacity utilization rather than adding new capacities.

Some of the cynics say that Since Dar is an accountant by profession his entire focus is on profit and loss statement and balance sheet rather than achieving synergy, economy of scale and off course there is no focus on restoring confidence of investors.

At present Pakistan is suffering from ‘confidence deficit’ which is even worse than budget deficit and trade deficit put together. Local investors are shy because of looming energy crisis and deteriorating law and order situation.

Mobilizing additional tax without putting the economy on track is ‘hoping against hopes’. Since bulk of Pakistan’s revenue collection comes from indirect taxes, people must have ample purchasing power. Bleak outlook for the economy, eroding purchasing power and shrinking job opportunities forces people not to spend. On top of all failure of the government to contain price hike adds to the woes of masses.

There is an old saying ‘action talks louder than words’ but in case of PML-N there is hardly any action but big talk, mostly blame game. Both Pervez Musharraf and Asif Ali Zardari are being held responsible for the poor state of economy.

People listened to this during the election campaign but now want action to remove some of the malice. PML-N had sought 100 days to put the economy on track but its real challenge will be getting the budget endorsed by the IMF to enter into an agreement with the Fund.

Ironically most of the members of National Assembly can’t comprehend impact of budget proposals and impact of these on masses. They consider clapping their sole duty during the speeches of Prime Minister and Finance Minister and saying ‘I second’ their sole responsibility. In return members are given huge development funds which are mostly spent on development of their home town rather than those areas which need the funds most.

Though, it was expected that collectively ANP, MQM, PPP and PTI will emerge as strong combined opposition, not much has been delivered as yet. Many analysts fear that the present opposition will also be the ‘friendly opposition’ only. Since some of the leading parties have formed government at province, these are effectively part of ruling junta and not the opposition.

Pakistan: Musharraf Treason Case

On the floor of National Assembly Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif has given a policy statement on trial of ex-President and retired General Pervez Musharraf. He wants this treason case to go to its logical conclusion, with the consensus and support of all the political parties.

However, some constitutional experts warn that this could open Pandora’s Box. Some experts go to the extent of saying that going further on this sensitive case could destabilize the country, which can prove detrimental to the continuation of PML-N government but more importantly initiating extreme instability in the country.

Some of the experts say that ‘Mian Sahib is running too fast and may lose the breath too early’. They say Mian Sahib should have waited for a while and focused on other pressing issues. In fact the biggest threat is fast changing scenario in Afghanistan, which could have severe impact on Pakistan. United States is directly negotiating with Taliban and also seems adamant at giving a major role to India, which certainly does not bode well for Pakistan.

Some experts go to the extent of saying that ranks and files of Pakistan Army will not tolerate life imprisonment or hanging of a retired General. Some of those who abrogated the Constitution of Pakistan will also have to face the music. If one person has to face the brunt, how can others remain insulated? They refer to Ziaul Haq who made Mian Sahib provincial minister, which led to his deserting the then Prime Minister, Mohammad Khan Junejo, in an attempt to get even closer to Ziaul Haq.

While Mian Sahib seems adamant at punishing Musharraf, a question also has to be answered, who issued instructions not to allow lending of Musharraf’s plane in Pakistan? The point has to be kept in mind that not only the life of Chief of the Staff was put at stake but had the plane ran out of fuel, all the passengers on board would have lost their lives.

Some insiders say that efforts were also made to push the plane into Indian Territory. They say India would have immediately shot down the plane or minimum brought it down, arrested, trialed and hanged the in service General and Chief of the Staff. This would have provided India and ideal opportunity to punish the ‘Kargil Hero’. Over the years Mian Sahib has been saying that Musharraf had taken the decision at his own without even informing him.

One of the conspiracy theories is that United States wishes to close ‘Musharraf Chapter’. This does carry some weight because aircraft carrying Ziaul Haq along with many generals, who played key role in Afghan resistance against USSR, was blown up. Ejazul Haq, son of Ziaul Haq has been saying over the years that blowing up of plane was not an accident but an act of sabotage, in which the US Ambassador in Pakistan and a brigadier general also lost their lives.

Some of the critics say that over the years Pakistan Army and ISI has been maligned badly and pushed to the wall. Musharraf has also been accused of conspiring to kill Akbar Bugti and Benazir Bhutto. Bothe these allegations are aimed at portraying that Army has been involved in some heinous crimes. Interestingly Musharraf is being trialed for issuing instructions to kill or abrogating the Constitution but hardly any action is being taken against those who claim responsibility of killing of dozens of people and attacking sensitive installations.

Courtesy: The Financial Daily

Pakistan United States Relations: Tying Loose Ends

At this juncture when two of the deadly foes, United States and Taliban fighting a war for more than a decade, are getting ready to shake hands, the time has come for Pakistan to revisit its relationship with both. Hamid Karzari, President of Afghanistan is soliciting help of India to manage his country once withdrawal of US-led Nato forces is complete.

To arrive at any meaningful decision first the history of Pak-US relationship needs to be explored. It is difficult to recollect all the events taking place since 1947 but a few deserving full attention are: 1) Pakistan spying USSR for United States during cold war era, 2) Pakistan broking  in establishing US-China relationship, 3) Pakistan fighting US proxy war after USSR attacked Afghanistan with the help of Taliban, 4) Pakistan fighting against Taliban when US attacked Afghanistan and now 5) Pakistan fighting with different militants groups within its territory that are funded by some external powers that adamant at plunging the country deep into anarchy.

Almost at the end of each phase Pakistan had to pay huge cost. When USSR threatened to attack Pakistan, the then prime minister asked United States to give protection but he was assassinated. Many Pakistani still wonder; was he killed by USSR or United States?

Once Pakistan took the then US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger secretly to China United States achieved a major breakthrough but India imposed war on Pakistan in 1965. Interesting Pakistan and India signed an agreement in Tashkent but Indian Prime Minister died in a mysterious manner. In Pakistan riots started against the then President Ayub Khan and he had to step down in 1968.

In 1970 general election Awami League of Sheikh Mujeeb attained majority but he was soon arrested and trialed. Mean time riots started in East Pakistan, India helped rebel group called Mukti Bahini. India also attached West Pakistan. The war ended on a bitter point, more than ninety thousand troop surrendering and East Pakistan becoming Bangladesh.

In West Pakistan Zulikar Ali Bhutto became Prime Minister. He with the help of some Muslim countries strived hard to restore confidence of public. He very tactfully arranged for the reorganization of Bangladesh at the historic meeting of OIC in Islamabad. However, after much talked about rigged election, religious parties pushed him to a point where another martial law was imposed in the country and Ziaul Haq took over as Chief Martial Law Administrator and then President of Pakistan. To prolong his tenure he announced to impose Shariah system in the country.

Soon after his takeover of control of Pakistan in turmoil, USSR attacked Afghanistan in an attempt to get access to warm waters. United States took it as a major threat to its hegemony in the region and very aptly labeled this proxy war Jihad. While military support was given by Pakistan and GHQ became the control room, to get ground support Ziaul Haq sought help of two religious leaders, Mulana Fazau-ur-Rehman and Mulana Smai-ul-Haq arranged for thousands of Mujaheddin, who were later on known as Taliban.

USSR lost the war because of internal issues and its forces has to withdraw. United States instead of rebuilding war torn Afghanistan also took quick exist. This plunged the country into civil war as ample arms were available but there was severe shortage of food and basic facilities. At that time Taliban led government was installed in Afghanistan but the country remained plunged in anarchy. Taliban government enjoyed direct support of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and indirect support of United States.

Then came 9/11 that changed the global political arena, OBL was alleged for masterminding these attacks and United States attacked Afghanistan and status of Taliban changed from friend to foe. Pakistan was once again told to join the crusade or face the same faith. Realizing that India was keen in exploiting the opportunity to join United States and also settle its own score on Kargil, the then president Pervez Musharraf joined ‘US War on Terror’.

To give Musharraf’s regime legitimacy entry of Benazir Bhutto was facilitated into Pakistan. However something went grossly wrong and she was assassinated. Philippine story was followed and Benazir’s husband Asif Ali Zardari finally rose to the position of President of Pakistan. During the currency PPP-led government some highly undesirable event happened that included attack on military post in which many soldiers were killed, OBL hideout was found near federal capital and he was finally assassinated but his body was not shown, people still don’t believe this story and openly term it a hoax call.

In the recently held general election the results paved way for installation of PML-N government at federal and Punjab level, PPP government in Sindh, PTI government in KP and nationalists’ government in Baluchistan. Ironically, these parties have not reconciled that they rule the respective provinces and have to cooperate with the federation on national priorities.

During the elections Taliban emerged friends of PML-N, JI, PTI, JUI-F but worst enemies of ANP, MQM and PPP. However, off and on Taliban attacked election meeting of their supported parties.  They have become fully active now, after the announcement that United States is getting involved in negotiations with Taliban.

Many Pakistanis fail to understand that while drones attacks on Taliban staying in Pakistan’s tribal areas are still going on why United States is holding direct negotiations with Taliban? One has the reasons to suspect that the hidden agenda is different from declared agenda. It is also felt that Pakistan is once again being marginalized and India is being given the status of regional super power.

One of the conspiracy theories is that now United States is working on creation of an independent and greater Baluchistan, comprising of one slice each from Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. This proposed country will be rich in natural resources and all the super powers will have their share in the booty. This will also help in waging war on Iran and Pakistan.

It is feared the proxy war has already started and killing of people and bomb blasts are aimed at starting civil war. This is not diabolic thinking but based on the prevailing ground realities: 1) presence of ruthless killers, 2) tons of arms and money to support the perpetrators and 3) above all support extended at the global level for establishing an independent Baluchistan.

Supporters of Independent Baluchistan have been active for years. Their endeavors will yield result only when Pakistani society is fragmented. The nation is already divided into sectarian and linguistic groups that are adamant at killing their enemies and undermining writ of the government.  

Pakistan: Writ of Government Challenged

After the general elections and forming of governments at federal and provincial levels, particularly in Baluchistan it was expected that law and order situation in the country will improve. However, it seems some external factors are adamant at plunging the country into anarchy and the game seems to have started in Baluchistan, where some groups are demanding for an independent greater Baluchistan and their movement is supported by certain groups from United States and Britain.

The three incidents taking place in Baluchistan: 1) blowing up of Ziarat Residency, 2) exploding bus carrying female students and 3) taking into siege Bolan Medical Complex just cannot be termed isolated acts of carnage, but part of some grand plan. Experts term these attacks challenging writ of newly installed federal and provincial governments.

Therefore, there is an immediate need to take most stern action against the perpetrators. Even the cursory look at the events helps in identifying the culprits and their motives. The sole motive is to derail the process of integration of Balochs into mainstream politics of the country.

It is clear from the long history of rebel-government confrontation that some of the quarters are trying to create a justification for a greater and independent Balochistan. It will comprise of one slice each taken from Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan.

The only objective is to first create an independent but extremely feeble country and then to take control over its natural resources. In this endeavor the perpetrators are fully supported by regional and global super powers.

The attack at Ziarat Residency was aimed at demolishing a sign of federation but more importantly denounce Pakistan movement. It is clear that the perpetrators not only defying Pakistan but are the most ruthless people who have been fighting with Pakistan Army and also blaming it for the ‘sage of missing persons’. A question arises, if Army has killed the perpetrators, how many soldiers and officers were also martyred by them?

The attack on female students was solely aimed at shifting the focus from Ziarat Residency to Quetta killing. Some of the quarters are openly asking what is more important an old building or human lives? However, no one is demanding stern action against those who not only killed the students but also occupied Bolan Medical Complex.

Quetta incidents seem similar to the attacked on a bus carrying Shias and then attack on Jinnah Hospital where the wounded were being given medical treatment. This gives a reason to believe that Quetta carnage was undertaken by those who were involved in Karachi massacre. Now Lashkar-e-Jhangvi has claimed responsibility of these attacks, they had also claimed responsibility of carnage in Karachi.

Some of the people have started talking about killing of Sunnis in Quetta to portray as if the killers were Shias to create rift between the two sects. This gives a reason to suspect that the killing and siege was undertaken by the group (Jandullah) that claims to be fighting for the protection of interest of Balochs in Pakistan and rights of Sunnis in Iran. The time chosen was the day elections were being held in Iran.

While one can talk about many other conspiracy theories, one deserving immediate attention is weakening of the present Government in Baluchistan, which mostly comprise of elected members belonging to middle class and not the clan Sardars, as it used to be in the past.

Another theory is that the blasts and carnage is aimed at proving that conditions are not conducive for the construction of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Those opposing this project want to pull Pakistan out of this project also know that any unilateral decision by the Government of Pakistan will make it liable to pay damages to Iran for not meeting the contractual obligations.  

Some of the cynics have been saying for ages that Sardars are the biggest exploiters of Baloch. However, to save their skin they portray that federation is usurping rights of Baloch. Ironically, ordinary persons living under the most inhuman conditions are mesmerized by this mantra.

Though, it is difficult to say that Baloch Liberation Army has conducted the terrorist attacks or charges are being framed against it. However, neither the Government of Pakistan nor the ordinary person should forget that rebel groups are being supported around the globe by those who wish to create their hegemony in the region; and Pakistan is not an exception.

Pakistan: Baluchistan under Siege

Two of the terrorist attacks taking place in Baluchistan province on Saturday clearly show that some external elements are adamant at destroying peace of the province. Baluchistan was expected to return to normalcy after installation of an elected government. This government enjoys full support of nationalist parties and PML-N also.

The first terrorist attack was at a historical building commonly known as Ziarat Residency. Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah has spent his last days there. Dawn quoting the officials has confirmed that most of the old memorials inside the monument were destroyed, with historic photographs of the founder burnt to the ground in the resulting fire.

The second but most brutal was the attack on bus carrying student of the medical university killing at least eleven women after a bomb ripped through the bus.  The intensity of blast can be ascertained from the picture taken by AFP and place at Dawn Website.

Less than an hour later, sounds of explosions and firing spread panic and chaos through the Bolan Medical Complex where most of the wounded had been taken, at least three explosions were heard from inside the hospital.

Television reports said Deputy Commissioner Abdul Mansoor Khan, who had earlier been wounded, was killed by shots to the head and chest. According to the latest reports, three soldiers were also said to have lost their lives in the still continuing gun-battle between security forces and the militants.

A correspondent reporting from the hospital confirmed the second blast occurred inside the emergency ward of the hospital. The nature of the blasts at the hospital and the extent of the resulting damage were still unclear.

Though, no group has so far claimed responsibility for any of the attacks, the attack on bus and then on hospital reminds one of attacks on the day of Chelum of Imam Hussain in Karachi. Taliban/TTP had claimed responsibility of these attacks.

These attacks pose a big challenge for PML-N government headed by Mian Nawaz Sharif, which wants to initiate negotiations with Taliban/TTP. He had, as a good will gesture also supported formation of government by nationalist parties in Baluchistan.

Some experts also say that banned outfit Janduallh, which is supported by foreign intelligence agencies may be the mastermind. Historically, members of this outfit have been involved in bomb attacks and killing of innocent people. Its chief was hanged in Iran after a full trial as he was found guilty of killing Iranians and destroying strategic installations.

Pakistan: Foreign Policy Dilemma

It is often said that Pakistan enjoys geopolitically important position but this factor has become its worst enemy. Pakistan’s location has made it highly vulnerable country, be it global politics or ongoing war on terror. Since there are too many state and non-state operators in the region it is often difficult to distinguish between friend and foe.

It is evident that forces having conflicting interests are busy in establishing their hegemony in the region, often undermining Pakistan’s interest and at times subjugating its sovereignty. In such a delicate but complicated situation maintaining good relationship with immediate neighbors and regional and global super powers becomes extremely difficult. This often poses serious threats for the sovereignty of the country.

Pakistan’s top most concern is maintaining cordial relationship with three of its immediate neighbors namely, Afghanistan, Iran and India. In the regional context Pakistan also has to keep happy three regional powers i.e. Saudi Arabia, China and Russia. On top of all it has to follow instructions of United States, leading war on terror in Afghanistan. At time US mantra becomes unbearable because it is promoting India as regional super power and completely ignoring its ‘frontline partner in war against terror’.

A few days before dissolution of assemblies, PPP led coalition government transferred control of Gwadar port to China and commenced work on Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. Some experts say that United States, Saudi Arabia and India are not happy with these decisions. They even go to the extent of saying that the two decisions were the reasons for PPP’s defeat in the general election.

Prime Minister, Mian Nawaz Sharif is too keen to grant India MFN status and consolidating trade and investment relationship with it. In this endeavor transfer of control of Gwadar port to China becomes a big stumbling block. India is not at all happy on this decision, as it considers presence of China in the Indian Ocean the biggest hurdle in achieving status of regional super power. India also considers Gwadar a big threat for Chabahar port, which it is building at distance of 70 kilometers from Gwadar in Iran. In this venture India enjoys complete support of United States as at no point in time India was warned of violating sanctions imposed on Iran.

Historically, Saudi Arabia has been kind enough to extend financial support to Pakistan and even at this juncture it is willing to offer US$15 billion bailout package to the country. While people many of Mian Sahib’s critics term the package a hoax call there are also growing apprehensions even in the minds of those who are termed ‘cool headed’. They say Pakistan will have to accept either Saudi bailout package or Iranian gas but can’t enjoy both.  Therefore, it is apprehended that Mian Shaib under the pressure of United States and Saudi Arabia may shelf Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, which will not be a good omen for Pakistan-Iran relationship.

Keeping this complicated scenario in mind, it was believed that Mian Sahib will appoint a well articulated full time foreign minister. Since the influx of experts from all the above stated countries is likely to increase in due course, it will be imprudent that prime minister negotiate with those dignitaries, who will not be enjoying the status of prime minister.

Experts also fear that Mian Sahib is likely to get overindulged in domestic issues, especially energy crisis and precarious law and order situation which will not allow him to spend around 10 to 12 hours a day on foreign policy issues.

Mian Sahib having decided to oversee this ministry has appointed two stalwarts to advise him on foreign policy, these are former foreign minister Sartaj Aziz and former senior diplomat Tariq Fatemi. However, the two are not on the same wave length and are likely to create more problems rather than ensuring smooth handling of crucial foreign policy issues.

Some experts say that Mian Sahib does not have any competent person to be appointed as foreign minister. PPP had chosen Ms Hina Rabbani as a replacement for Shah Mahmood Qureshi and appointed Ms Shery Rehman Ambassador in United States. Therefore, Mian Sahib needs two replacements, one to fill the slot of foreign minister and other to occupy the most important position in Washington. He may have to continue with the ambassadors stationed in Saudi Arabia, China, India, Russia and Afghanistan for the time being.

Pakistan to elect new Prime Minister

Pakistan’s Parliament is scheduled to elect its new leader of the house or prime minister on 5th June. The three proposed names are that of Mian Nawaz Sharif of PML-N, Makhdoom  Amin Fahim of PPP and Makhdoom Javed Hashmi of PTI.

Election of PML-N’s Ayaz Sadiq and Murtaza Javed Abbasi to the posts of speaker and deputy speaker of the assembly respectively has already set the stage and filing of nominations by PPP and PTI members seem a ritual. In fact this may be an exhibition of strengths held by the three leading parties. MQM’s decision to support PML-N has added additional weight to Mian Sahib, who already enjoys simple majority in the house.

Some of the critics say that filing of nominations papers by PPP and PTI is not a good omen because the country needed a consensus leader of the house who enjoys complete support on issues facing the country, worst being stopping drone attacks and overcoming energy crisis.

Many of the political pundits were little confused when MQM decided to sit on opposition benches but extending support to Mian Sahib clearly shows that the party wishes to sail in two boats simultaneously.

It also confirms the conspiracy theory that MQM just can’t afford to sit on opposition benches.

However, extending support to Mian Sahib can pose some serious problems for MQM in Sindh, where PPP is all set to form the government.

Another conspiracy theory is that extending support to Mian Sahib is part of the grand plan to retain the present governor of Sindh in the office. This deal can save Mian Sahib from a possible embarrassment of governor Sindh not ready to receive the elected prime minister at Karachi airport.

While some political pundits say that supporting Mian Sahib does not bode well for MQM, others say that supporting Mian Sahib is the only way to avoid operation against the party.

One can still recall Mian Sahib had said in the past, “If I come into power I will establish military courts in Sindh”. Even at that time it was taken as a potential threat for MQM because such operations were not aimed at rounding up PPP or ANP activists.

Some of the critics say that Mian Sahib has accepted the NP proposed person as Chief Minister of Balochistan just to avoid confrontation. Following the same strategy Mian Sahib may also concede to some of the demands of MQM Just to maintain peace and tranquility in Sindh, the life line of Pakistan.

The history shows MQM enjoys enough power to bring Karachi to grinding halt at the shortest notice. It is clear that if MQM opt for this confrontation with the PML-N, it will also be joined by PPP and ANP to bring the party enjoying the largest mandate under pressure.

It is not only the residents of Karachi but the entire Pakistan that wants peace to be maintained in the city so that economy of the country can be put on track. Keeping the city normal is also a must for ensuring collection of taxes. Karachi continues to contribute nearly 75 per cent of the total tax. Similarly suspension of activities at two ports of Karachi can cause disruption in the movement of import/export consignments.

Pakistan: Can the rulers develop consensus?

According to the results of recently held elections all the political parties enjoy the status of ruling junta. If members of some of these parties will be sitting on opposition benches in the national assembly, they will form the government at provincial levels.

Interestingly, MQM that has remained part of ruling junta has decided to sit on opposition benches at the federal as well as provincial levels. Under the emerging set up it is expected that the parties will preferably come up with policies through consensus and avoid confrontation.

The real test of their consensus is deciding fate of the drone attacks. All the parties during their election campaign were critical of these attacks and now the time has come to tell the super power ‘enough is enough’. It is expected that prime minister in waiting, Mian Nawaz Sharif may not be able to convince the United States alone but if he enjoys support of all the elected members, he can negotiate a better deal.

In the worst scenario Pakistan has the right to intercept and down any aircraft breaching its airspace. 

However, it is believed that these attacks enjoy the blessing of Government of Pakistan (GoP), which is also extending ground support. It is often alleged that Pakistan provide the necessary details for these attacks because at times undertaking such precise attacks are not possible from ground.

The classification of Taliban into good and bad and Taliban/TTP extending support to JI, JUI-F, PML-N and PTI is not likely to allow the ruling junta to continue support for drone attacks. Many questions bother Pakistanis, what is the reality of Taliban/TTP? Are they friend or foe? If they are friend why are they at war with Pakistan Army?

One of the ways to rationalize good or bad Taliban is, those who cooperate with US-led Nato forces are called good and those who consider them ‘occupier’ have been clasified bad. Though, it has been decided to withdraw Nato forces from Afghanistan, there are fears that there will never be complete withdrawal. United States will retain bases in Afghanistan, party to keep Iran under pressure and partly to get control over the goods going to Central Asian countries via Afghanistan.

In Afghanistan United States is also supporting India in maintaining its hegemony; in fact the US wants the countries located in the region to accept India as a regional power. This is aimed at keeping Pakistan under pressure. In such a scenario Mian Sahib may find granting India MFN status a difficult task. His other associates, religious parties are also not likely to support him in developing too cordial relationships with India.

To overcome energy crisis Mian Sahib is demanding Rs500 billion, which has to be mobilized through imposing new taxes and/or raising rates of existing taxes. It is feared that he may also resort to hike in electricity and gas tariff, which will not be endorsed by his opponents.

Ironically, Mian Sahib has not come up with any policy to contain rampant pilferage of electricity and gas and recovery of outstanding dues. It is necessary to remind him that hike in tariffs just can’t improve cash flow of electric and gas utilities.

Targeted killing has once again resurfaced in Karachi and the worst victim is Shia community. Ironically, some of the religious parties and banned outfits enjoy most cordial relationship with PML-N. The time has come to catch the perpetrators and give them exemplary punishment.

Pakistan: Can Nawaz Sharif Redefine Priorities?

The process of oath taking by the elected members has started. On Wednesday the elected members of Sindh Assembly sworn in and shortly members of other provincial assemblies and National Assembly will also take oath. Mian Nawaz Sharif will create the history by becoming Prime Minister of Pakistan for the third time. All the fellow countrymen wish him the best and wish his government completes its term. The haunting memories of dismissal of his previous two governments are still fresh.

In these pages it has been highlighted repeatedly that it will not be the bed of roses for the rulers, particularly for Mian Sahib. His party will form government at federal because it enjoys simple majority and in Punjab it enjoys two-third majority. However, his worst critics and opponents will form the government in remaining three provinces.

Since all the parties want to put economy of the country on fast development, resolve energy crisis, curb militancy and establish writ of the government establishing good working relationship is a must because they have consensus on the issues and also on the priorities. The management gurus say ‘a problem well diagnosed is half solved’.

Fortunately or unfortunately all the parties have consensus on four basic issues facing the country that are: 1) balance of payment, 2) energy, 3) law and order and 4) internal and external threats. It may be another thing that they may not priorities the way these have been listed here. During the election campaign political parties have talked a lot about these problems and the root causes. Now the time has come to come up with policies through consensus and implement these in letter and spirit.

To begin with the new government will have to finalize details of Saudi bailout package and IMF extended financial facility.  The two options will help in different ways, Saudi package will help in containing further erosion of existing paltry foreign exchange reserves and IMF facility will provide the much needed breathing space to come up with a home grown plan for overcoming balance of payment crisis. Delaying the decision for next 100 days to witness the impact of policies can prove fatal if desired results are not achieved.

People are disappointed with the statement of Mian Sahib that energy crisis is far worse than estimated. They had got some idea when PML-N leadership extended the period from three months to three years and lost hopes with the announcement that the government needs 500 billion rupees or five billion dollars to overcome the issue. Even the experts wonder how such a colossal amount could be mobilized and what will be the required measures to pay off this debt.

Some cynics say the country does not needs money but a solid plan to resolve the crisis. Both electric and gas utilities have to overcome blatant theft and improve recoveries to improve cash flow. At present about 6000MW electricity is produced at hydel plants which don’t require even a drop of oil and remaining 6000MW electricity is supplied by IPPs.

If NTDC clears all the outstanding amounts IPPs will have enough cash to buy fuel. The much talked about debate that ministry of finance is not releasing the required amount is spreading disinformation rather than helping in resolving the crisis. The federal government can pay the amount pertaining to federal and provincial governments, state owned enterprises and make the deductions at source.

Law and order situation can be improved by taking action against the culprits irrespective of their association with political parties or religious groups. Let one point be very clear that economic prosperity can’t be achieved without ensuring security of people and their assets. Operation in a particular area or against a specific ethnic group can’t resolve the issue.

Once the economy is put on track, the government can address internal and external threats, worst being growing militancy and sectarian killing. The time has come to weed out foreign militants, who are also being used by various local groups for settling scores. Across the board operation is required against the perpetrators, irrespective of their association with local political parties and religious groups.

Pakistan: Limited Options for MQM

While Mian Nawaz Sharif, Chief of PML-N is anxious to assume charge of Prime Minister for the third time and create history, Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) seems completely in quandary. It has not decided as yet whether to sit on opposition benches in National Assembly or become ‘me too’ by joining hands with PML-N.

The dissolution of Coordination Committee by founder and leader of MQM, Altaf Hussain and delay is announcement of new team is certainly making its vote bank uncomfortable, especially those who don’t wish to indulge in ‘confrontation’. Many in MQM believe that if something has to be done for the vote bank it can come only by maintaining amicable relationship with the ruling junta.

Many political pundits say, “Under the prevailing conditions, MQM is left with one option only that is to follow the decision of PPP, which has already nominated Khursheed Shah as leader of opposition in the National Assembly and also to become part of ruling junta in Sindh province”.

Political analysts also believe that if PTI, PPP, MQM and ANP join hands in National Assembly they can form a real strong opposition that will not allow Mian Sahib to do ‘whatever he wishes’. Certainly two of the biggest issues for Sindh and Karachi are: 1) overcoming energy crisis and 2) maintaining law and order.

PTI is likely to form government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwah and Dr. Arif Alvi elected on NA-250 from Karachi will have to play the role most prudently. Dr Alvi has emerged victorious after defeating MQM and JI candidates and now his responsibility should be to protect the rights of PTI vote bank.

Development of Sindh in general and Karachi in particular is linked with robust economic activities and ensuring peace. MQM is likely to learn a lesson from erosion in its vote bank and play the role of facilitator to peace and prosperity.

Historically, PML-N and MQM have hardly enjoyed enviable relationship. MQM leaders and workers have not forgotten Mian Sahib’s statement, “If we come in power we will establish Military Court to punish the culprits”. MQM rank and file still remembers operation undertaken during two of the past regimes of Mian Sahib.

It may be said that PPP has also undertaken operation against MQM in the past, but the two parties succeeded in maintaining good relationship as President Asif Ali Zardari and Governor Sindh Dr. Ishrat ul Ebad made the best effort to keep the coalition intact despite some difficult times.

With Pakistan facing internal and external threats all the political parties, which will enjoy double role, opposition in National Assembly and ruling junta at province levels must keep one point in mind that strengthening Pakistan should be their top priority. They should also remember that the leader of opposition is nothing less than the leader of the house.

Therefore, the logical choice of MQM should be to sit on opposition benches in National Assembly and join hands with PPP in Sindh. The earlier this decision is announced the better it will be for the MQM and its vote bank.