No one could believe that the United States or Israel launch
attacks on Iran in the middle of a diplomatic process. The sixth round of
indirect nuclear talks with the US was scheduled later in the week. There were
expectations a breakthrough was possible this time.
US President Donald Trump had urged Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid attacking Iran. Even if Trump is "crazy,"
many analysts argued, he seemed capable of clear thinking when it came to West
Asia, understanding that another war in the region - especially one that
involves Iran - would benefit no one.
However, Trump turned out to be just as crazy and ignorant
as people knew he was. He provided Israel with logistics and intelligence
needed to strike residential buildings, nuclear facilities, and military sites
across Iran while a meeting was scheduled in Oman.
Why did
Israel attack Iran?
Netanyahu claims the attacks aimed to prevent Iran from
developing nuclear weapons a justification few accept, even those minimally
informed about Iran s nuclear program.
The IAEA and Western intelligence agencies have confirmed
time and time again that despite nuclear advancements, Iran has neither pursued
nuclear weapons nor demonstrated political will to do so. If Iran develops such
weapons in the future, it will likely be a direct result of Israel s brazen
aggression, making them feel such arms are necessary.
Israeli attacks on the Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities
failed to cause significant damage. As per Iran's nuclear chief's latest
announcement, both sites are currently operating normally. This did not come as
a surprise, as the whole world had known for a while that the main part of
Iran's nuclear facilities are placed deep under the ground, and that it is
impossible to destroy them with conventional weapons..
To understand why Iran was attacked, we must first examine
the Israeli offensive.
Israeli operation against Iran comprised of three elements: 1)
assassinating military leaders, 2) attacking nuclear sites, and 3) terrorizing
civilians.
Israel believed its offensive would result in three things:
1) The assassination of top Iranian commanders would delay or prevent
retaliation, 2) All or a significant number of Iran's missile launchers,
depots, and military sites would be destroyed through Friday's campaign, and 3)
Killing of Iranian civilians and striking the heart of Tehran would pit the
people against the government and spur an uprising
All assumptions proved false. While the loss of five of its
top military leaders did deal a blow to Iran, it did not cripple the Iranian
Armed Forces. Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei
took only a couple of hours to replace the assasinated generals.
While analysts don't know how much damage Israel has managed
to inflict on Iran's military assets, it is clear that a large part of the
country's defensive and offensive calibilties are still in tact.
Since the conflict began, Iran has launched multiple waves
of missile strikes against the occupied territories, hitting critical targets
like the Haifa oil refinery, the Mossad and Aman headquarters, military bases,
and nuclear research centers. The Iranian Armed Forces claim they have enough
missiles to hit Israeli targets every day for two years.
Another Israeli prediction that proved false was that given
the various financial and societal issues gripping Iran in recent years, the
people would choose to topple the government in order to "save" their
lives.
Netanyahu issued a message to the Iranian people, and later
did an interview with a US-based Persian speaking channel to tell them he was
only at war with the government, and that he wanted to bring Iranians freedom
and prosperity.
The Israeli aggression only made Iranians more united and
even prompted well-known individuals with a long history of anti-goverment
activisim to rally behind Ayatollah Khamenei.
What
Israel gained or lost?
Netanyahu managed to gain a temporary period of Euphoria. Settlers
in the occupied territories are accustomed to waging war not facing existential
threats. For the first time in Israel s history, its citizens fear for their
lives. Iranian missiles strike at will, a reality Israelis recently confronted.
As Hebrew media reports, residents barred by authorities from fleeing now pay
smugglers to transport them by boat to Cyprus.
Journalists say they are appalled at what's happening,
military analysts say Israel's interceptors, which have so far only downed
older Iranian missiles designed to preoccupy air defense systems, will be out
soon.
Netanyahu and Trump essentialy entered a war they can not
finish. It appears Israel failed in estimating Iranian capabilities. They may
have to sit back and watch how Iran writes the ending to their story.
