The Biden administration is stressing that diplomacy with
Iran is the last, best chance to box in their nuclear ambitions and prevent
Tehran from building a weapon of mass destruction.
Officials have played down reports that they are considering
an interim deal with Iran, or talks outside the parameters of the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the formal name for the 2015 deal.
“Our objective has not changed, it remains a mutual return
to full compliance with the JCPOA, this is the best available option to
restrict Iran’s nuclear program and provide a platform to address Iran’s
destabilizing conduct,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki told
reporters on Monday.
“We're working with our European partners in lockstep, and
of course we are going to continue to press for the diplomatic approach.”
Enrique Mora, the European Union’s lead negotiator on the
nuclear talks, said he felt “extremely positive” at the conclusion of the first
round of discussions on Monday.
“There is clearly a will on all the delegations to listen to
the Iranian positions brought by the new team. And there is clearly a will for
the Iranian delegation to engage in serious work and bring JCPOA back to life,”
Mora said. “So I feel positive that we can be doing important things for the
next weeks to come.”
Former President Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018. President
Biden, in contrast, has said he is intent on reviving the JCPOA.
A State Department spokesperson told The Hill that there
were no updates following the conclusion of the discussions on Monday but said,
“If Iran returns to Vienna ready to focus on the handful of unresolved issues
from the sixth round, we can quickly reach and implement an understanding on
mutual return. Otherwise, we are risking crisis.”
Republicans and Israel remain firmly opposed to the deal,
saying it fails to stop Iran from ever achieving a nuclear weapon and does not
address its other destabilizing activity in the region.
“Iran deserves no rewards, no bargain deals and no sanctions
relief in return for their brutality,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
said in a statement on Monday. “I call upon our allies around the world: Do not
give in to Iran's nuclear blackmail.”
State Department deputy spokesperson Jalina Porter on Monday
said the administration would not comment on the report, but said “enrichment
to 90 percent, obviously, would be a provocative act.”
There’s also concern over Iran’s blocking inspectors with
the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) from key nuclear
facilities, in particular in the city of Karaj where Iran has reportedly begun
producing centrifuges used to enrich uranium.
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi raised concerns last
week with the IAEA’s 35-country board of governors that Iran’s obstruction of
nuclear inspections risks its ability to return to the JCPOA.
Elisa Ewers, adjunct senior fellow with the Center for a New
American Security’s Middle East Security program, said in a statement that
Iran's return to Vienna is a signal it takes the IAEA warning seriously.
“This suggests Iranian efforts to avoid increased pressure
and buy time,” she said. “...This denial of monitoring access has been one of
Iran’s more concerning steps in recent months.”
Iranian officials say they will only return to the JCPOA if
the US lifts all of the estimated 1,500 sanctions imposed after Trump withdrew
from the deal, and ensures that successive presidents cannot tear up the
agreement with a change of administrations.
“The United States still fails to properly understand the
fact that there is no way to return to the JCPOA without verifiable and
effective lifting of all sanctions imposed on the Iranian nation after the US
departure,” Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a
statement Monday.
While the Biden administration has said it is prepared to lift
sanctions that are “inconsistent” with the deal, many of the Trump-era
sanctions targeted Iranian institutions, entities and people under other
authorities related to counterterrorism and human rights.
Iran also arrived in Vienna with a new negotiating team in
place, under the leadership of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the
conservative, hard-liner elected in August, who is under US sanctions for human
rights abuses.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow focused on Iran at the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the Islamic Republic has arrived in
Vienna from a position of strength, with a new administration that has
demonstrated increased willingness to greatly exceed the limits of the JCPOA.
“This situation of greater nuclear capability and less
nuclear monitoring is designed to force Washington into providing upfront and
direct sanctions relief,” Taleblu said.
“The team at the helm today in Iran are ultra-hardliners who
are more comfortable with escalation and their assessment that they can outlive
any potential ‘Plan-B’ pressure track by the Biden administration. All of this
will impact Iran's negotiating strategy making any agreement less likely and
less valuable than before. After all, Iran's nuclear program in 2021 cannot be
addressed by a deal that was deficient by the standards of 2015 or 2013.”
Ewers, of CNAS, said given Iran’s maximalist demands and its
new team in place, expectations are low for what can be achieved in the first
session.
“A good outcome would be a quick resurrection of the work
that was done between April and June, where some progress was made on hashing
out what a mutual return to compliance would look like,” she continued. “But
this would require the new Iranian delegation to be ready to deal. That’s
increasingly doubtful.”
Supporters of the JCPOA are raising concern the deal remains
the best course of action for both the US and Iran, with sanctions relief shown
to be a key incentive for Iran to adhere to the strict limits and intrusive
inspections outlined in the deal, while also avoiding a dangerous military
confrontation, even as the Biden administration has shown greater coordination
with Israel and Gulf nations.
"Close cooperation with US allies in the region to put
pressure on Iran won't produce a fundamentally different result than what the
Trump administration attempted and produced the worst of all words: an Iranian
nuclear program that is now closer to nuclear weapons than ever and an Iran
that is more aggressive in the region and more repressive at home,” said Ali
Vaez, Iran project director and senior adviser to the president for the
International Crisis Group.
“Plan B options range from unattractive to ugly. That's why
both sides need more flexibility to save Plan A, which remains the least costly
option for both sides.”
