US Senate passes Ukraine and Israel funding

The Senate on Tuesday passed a US$95 billion emergency foreign aid package, ending months of bitter fighting over US$61 billion for the war in Ukraine that had deeply divided the Republican Party. The measure passed by a vote of 79 to 18 and now goes to President Joe Biden for his signature.

The package also includes US$15 billion in military aid for Israel and US$9 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza and other war-torn areas, which became another flashpoint among conservative Republicans who argued it didn’t have adequate safeguards to keep it from going to Hamas.

It provides US$8 billion in security assistance to deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific.

It includes language to force the Chinese owner of TikTok to divest from the popular app, which is used by more than 140 million Americans, or otherwise face a ban within the United States.

The centerpiece of the package is US$47.7 billion that would flow through the Defense Department to provide training, equipment, weapons, logistics support and supplies to help Ukraine’s military, as well as US$13.4 billion to replenish US equipment sent to Ukraine and US$20.5 billion for US Armed Forces support in Europe.

It also includes US$9.5 billion in economic aid to Ukraine structured as a forgivable loan, an idea that former President Trump gave life to when the Senate passed a previous version of the US$95 billion assistance package in February.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who worked for months to get Ukraine aid passed, hailed the vote as a landmark moment.

“Today the Senate sends a unified message to the entire world. America will always defend democracy in its hour of need. We tell our allies we will stand with you. We tell our adversaries don’t mess with us,” Schumer declared on the Senate floor.

McConnell took to the floor to hail the prosperity the United States has enjoyed because it’s a global leader but told colleagues that that leadership comes with responsibilities to allies who help maintain peace and order throughout much of the world.

And he chastised colleagues who dragged out the debate over helping Ukraine based on what he called the “sheer fiction” that supporting the war is not a vital national security interest.

Evaluating Iran’s calibrated response

This is not the first time that Iran and Israel have faced each other. One of the reasons for not expanding the level of tension between these two actors is the agreed level of action and reaction by both the countries.

After October 07, it seems that the Zionist regime is no longer a rational actor due to the shocking blow it received, along with the preference of Netanyahu's personal and party interests over other issues.

The number of killings and civilian casualties, the targeting of hospitals, and the shutting off of water, electricity, and food have made even the regime's traditional allies criticize its irrational behavior.

This irrational behavior emanated from the lack of accurate calculation of Iran's behavior in response to changing the red line drawn in the parties' actions. However, it is also possible that due to the understanding of Tehran's intention not to expand the war and engage in a conflict with economic problems and sanctions, there was hope for continued strategic patience from Iran.

Iran, whose security is based on deterrence, considered the attack on the embassy a serious violation of its existential interest.

In a situation where targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure has been among the goals of Israel and America for years, the main factor that caused such a decision was Iran's significant deterrence. 

However, after this attack on the embassy, what could be the perception about Iran's deterrence? Iran's determination to respond was inevitable; the question of its ability and design was raised.

Iran wanted to give a clear response to Israel in a situation where the Zionist regime was under pressure in the field of public opinion due to numerous violations of human rights, its widening gap with the West and the United States regarding the handling of operations, and future of Gaza.

All these elements indicate that Iran did not seek to expand the conflict with Israel and other actors to open a new front and disrupt this situation.

Therefore, the puzzle of the response to the attack on the consulate had two apparently contradictory and paradoxical variables.

First, the answer must be given in such a way that the damaged deterrence is revived and causes a change in the enemy's perception of this type of strike.

Second, the conflict should not spread, neither in the geographical field nor in the increasing of actors involved.

According to Iran's previous experiences reviving its deterrence, solving this problem and paradox have been two conceivable tools and leverages: 1) Designing a type of military operation that demonstrates its capability (at the tactical and design level) but not at the level of forcing the target to respond and 2) Through political tools. The uncertainty in the minds of the regional and global states regarding their goals should be reduced. 

Now, if we examine the True Promise operation with this statement, these things are evident. According to previous experiences, Iran and the Axis of Resistance have a specific knowledge and understanding of the weak points of the Zionist regime.

One of the most obvious of these weaknesses is the lack of strategic depth and a clear vulnerability regarding the number of strikes and the number of fronts. Also, using the principle of surprise usually increases the success rate.

However, Iran, knowing these cases, presented a designed response in which it did not involve all the actors of the resistance axis who were active during the past months; at the same time, it responded with minimal quantity and quality (according to the Israeli regime's statistics, Hamas in Al-Aqsa Storm operation had used about 3,500 projectiles) and of course, the start of the attack was already known hours ago.

At the same time, during the days before the operation, Tehran had expressed to the regional and extra-regional countries its intention to carry out this "calibrated response."

This operation has shown Iran's maturity in design and implementation. In general, it should be kept in mind that the main audience of deterrence is not public opinion but decision-makers.

Security officials must know the type of target selection, weapons, and tactics used better than anyone else. Until now, it seems that Western officials and experts have received this calibrated response.

 

United States godfathering Israel

Lately, the United States blocked a United Nations Security Council resolution that would have recognized a Palestinian state. Twelve members of the Security Council had voted in favor of the resolution, while two countries – the UK and Switzerland – abstained. The United States vetoed it.

The Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, sharply criticized the US veto, saying in a statement that it was unfair, immoral, and unjustified, and defies the will of the international community, which strongly supports the State of Palestine obtaining full membership in the United Nations.

Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz praised the US for vetoing what he called a shameful proposal.

US State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel had announced earlier that the US would vote against the Security Council resolution, saying that the US has been very clear, consistently, that premature actions in New York, even with the best intentions, will not achieve statehood for the Palestinian people, referring to the headquarters of the United Nations.

He also noted there was no unanimity as to whether the Palestinians met the criteria for membership as a state in the UN, saying the US believes future statehood should be dependent on negotiations between Israel and representatives of the Palestinians.

“The most expeditious path towards statehood for the Palestinian people is through direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority with the support of the United States and other partners who share this goal,” Patel said.

Palestinian attempts for recognition as a full member state began in 2011. They are currently a non-member observer state, a status that was granted in November 2012.

At the time, UN Ambassador of the Palestinian Territories Riyad Mansour called the step a historic moment, adding that he hoped the Security Council will elevate itself to implanting the global consensus on the two-state solution by admitting the state of Palestine for full membership.

Israel’s UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan condemned Friday’s move as consideration of a Palestinian terror state.

“This won’t be a regular state. It will be a Palestine-Nazi state, an entity that achieved statehood despite being committed to terror and Israel’s annihilation,” Erdan added.

The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed disappointment over the UN Security Council's failure to pass a draft resolution that would have granted full UN membership to the State of Palestine.

The ministry said this decision contributes to the ongoing challenges faced by the region, particularly by allowing the continuation of Israeli occupation forces' actions without repercussions.

The ministry emphasized that the obstruction of Palestine's full membership in the UN hinders peace efforts and allows violations of the international law to persist.

Saudi Arabia reiterated its call for the international community to take decisive actions to stop attacks on civilians in the Gaza Strip and to support the Palestinian right to self-determination and statehood. This state, according to Saudi Arabia, should be established within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, aligning with the parameters set forth by the Arab Peace Initiative and other relevant international resolutions.

 

Israel-Iran encounters and US military strategy

The US military's success in helping Israel stop a recent massive wave of Iranian missiles and drones might suggest Washington is well prepared militarily for whatever comes next as Iran and Israel move from shadow warfare to direct confrontation.

Current and former US officials say US forces are not positioned for a major, sustained Middle East conflict and the Pentagon may have to revisit assumptions about military needs in the region if the crisis deepens.

"I don't think we have all the forces that we would want to support Israel if there was a direct war between them and Iran," said Michael Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East under the Trump administration.

Though Tehran has indicated it had no plans to retaliate for an apparent Israeli strike on Friday, the tit-for-tat attacks have raised fears of an unpredictable regional war that the United States has sought to prevent.

In the months since an attack by Hamas militants on Israel triggered a war in Gaza that has ignited unrest throughout the Middle East. The United States has rushed thousands of US service members to a region that had seen a steadily declining US presence over years.

Many of those new US troops are on warships and aircraft that move in and out of the region, and are only temporarily deployed. That US strategy to rely on surge forces could be tested now Iran and Israel have broken the taboo of open military strikes against each other.

"What it means for the US military is that I think we have to revisit this idea of what are the necessary, sustainable military capabilities that we have to maintain in the region," said Joseph Votel, a retired four star Army general who led US troops in the Middle East.

Votel and other former officials said the US military's success in downing Iran's drones and missiles last Saturday was presumably aided by detailed US intelligence that allowed the Pentagon to anticipate the timing and targets of Iran's attack.

"I think the bigger concern is our ability to be responsive over a sustained period of time," Votel said.

US officials say Iran does not appear to want an all-out war with Israel, and Tehran has played down Friday's strike. Still, experts warn the situation is unpredictable, particularly as long as the Israel-Hamas conflict rages.

US Army General Michael "Erik" Kurilla, the current head of Central Command, told lawmakers last month that he had requested more troops than the Pentagon had sent to his region, which President Joe Biden's administration has said is a lower priority than the challenge from China.

In written testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, Kurilla said a dangerous shortfall in US intelligence assets, targeting expertise and linguists contributes to gaps and seams in our ability to detect and disrupt plots, increasing freedom of movement for violent extremist organizations.

Although Kurilla's comments appeared more focused on Afghanistan, some intelligence shortfalls have already affected US strategy since the start of the war in Gaza.

For example, a lack of detail about Houthi weapons stockpiles before the Iran-backed group started attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea has made it hard to determine the effect of months of strikes on the group's arsenal of missiles and drones, said officials.

Still, sending more US troops to the Middle East and bolstering intelligence assets longer-term could prove difficult, officials say.

"Troops are spread around Europe and those that aren't are going through overdue maintenance cycles," one US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"And Asia is supposed to be the focus."

Another official said it was still unclear whether the US military was prepared to pull forces from Asia or Europe, despite the increase in tensions.

Prior to October, the last time the United States surged thousands of troops into the Middle East was under former President Donald Trump, during a series of escalatory actions that culminated in the US killing of Iran's top general and a retaliatory missile attack by Tehran on a US base in Iraq.

The first US official noted that the surge of troops in 2019 and 2020 was possible because, unlike today, Washington did not have to dedicate so many personnel and resources to Europe, a new reality following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Mulroy said the United States should strengthen its position in the Middle East without abandoning its China-first focus.

 

 

Need to check Israeli attempts

The Iran-Israel shadow war has very much come out into the open. Tel Aviv had been targeting Tehran’s assets for over a decade, particularly in Syria, taking advantage of the chaos engendered by that country’s civil war. A number of Iranian scientists, especially those associated with the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, had been assassinated within Iran in hits widely considered to have been orchestrated by Israel.

While the Iranians are known for their strategic patience, and for playing the long game, the April 01 Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus, in which a number of senior Iranian generals were killed, had crossed a red line. There was tremendous pressure on Iran from within to reply to this Israeli transgression, and the ayatollah and his generals had to respond without triggering a major regional war.

Tehran’s response came in the shape of the April 13 assault on Israel, a barrage that was short on destructiveness, yet scored a major strategic and PR victory for Iran. The suspected Israeli strikes targeting Iranian facilities in Isfahan early on Friday are the latest move on this dangerous chessboard.

While Tel Aviv has officially kept mum about the Isfahan misadventure — Israel rarely owns up to subterfuge outside of its borders — some politicians in the Zionist state have celebrated the attacks, while American media, quoting sources, have said this is Israel’s handiwork. The Iranians themselves appear to be downplaying the event, and an airbase and nuclear facilities in the area seem to be safe.

Once again, the clamour for de-escalation has been echoing from global capitals. Surely a wider war is in no one’s interest — except perhaps for the extremists in Israel — but true de-escalation means Israel must start behaving like a normal state, not a rogue nation that threatens the entire region, as well as the forsaken Palestinians captive in the occupied territories.

The UN secretary general has said “one miscalculation … one mistake, could lead to the unthinkable”. But this is perhaps just what Benjamin Netanyahu and the cabal of zealots in the unruly coalition that backs him may want. After all, Israel has been facing global opprobrium for its butchery in Gaza, while Netanyahu is facing significant domestic opposition for his handling of the debacle.

Thus, a war with Iran may be a useful distraction to shift the focus from Palestine, and rally Israel’s Western friends behind it to protect the Middle East’s ‘only democracy’ against Tehran.

Suffice to say, any scenario pitting the Israeli-Western collective against Iran and its ‘axis of resistance’ allies will result in an explosion in the Middle East, causing oil prices to skyrocket, and global trade to be upended. To avoid this, Washington, London and Brussels need to check Israel’s destabilizing behaviour.

Courtesy: Dawn

Warmongers approve US$95 billion package

The US House of Representatives on Saturday with broad bipartisan support passed a US$95 billion legislative package providing security assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, over bitter objections from Republican hardliners, reports Reuters.

Passage of the long-awaited legislation was closely watched by US defense contractors, who are in line for huge contracts to supply equipment for Ukraine and other US partners.

The legislation now proceeds to the Democratic majority Senate, which passed a similar measure more than two months ago. US leaders from Democratic President Joe Biden to top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell had been urging embattled Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson to bring it up for a vote.

The Senate is set to begin considering the House-passed bill on Tuesday, with some preliminary votes that afternoon. Final passage was expected sometime next week, which would clear the way for Biden to sign it into law.

The bills provide U$60.84 billion to address the conflict in Ukraine, including US$23 billion to replenish US weapons, stocks and facilities; US$26 billion for Israel, including US$9.1 billion for humanitarian needs, and US$8.12 billion for the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed his thanks, saying US lawmakers moved to keep "history on the right track."

"The vital US aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger," Zelenskiy said on X.

The Biden administration is already finalizing its next assistance package for Ukraine so it can announce the new tranche of aid soon after the bill becomes law in order to meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield needs, a White House official said.

Biden, who had urged Congress since last year to approve the additional aid to Ukraine, said in a statement, "It comes at a moment of grave urgency, with Israel facing unprecedented attacks from Iran and Ukraine under continued bombardment from Russia."

The vote on passage of the Ukraine funding was 311-112. Significantly, 112 Republicans opposed the legislation, with only 101 in support.

"Mike Johnson is a lame duck ... he's done," far-right Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene told reporters afterward.

Marjorie has been a leading opponent of helping Ukraine in its war against Russia and has taken steps that threaten to remove Johnson from office over this issue. Greene stopped short of doing so on Saturday.

During the vote, several lawmakers waved small Ukrainian flags as it became clear that element of the package was headed to passage. Johnson warned lawmakers that was a "violation of decorum."

The House's actions during a rare Saturday session put on display some cracks in what generally is solid support for Israel within Congress.

Recent months have seen progressive Democrats express anger with Israel's government and its conduct of the war in Gaza.

Saturday's vote, in which the Israel aid was passed 366-58, had 37 Democrats and 21 Republicans in opposition.

Johnson this week chose to ignore ouster threats by hardline members of his fractious 218-213 majority and push forward the measure that includes Ukraine funding as it struggles to fight off a two-year Russian invasion.

The unusual four-bill package also includes a measure that includes a threat to ban the Chinese-owned social media app TikTok and the potential transfer of seized Russian assets to Ukraine.

Some hardline Republicans voicing strong opposition to further Ukraine aid argued the United States can ill afford it given its rising $34 trillion national debt. They have repeatedly raised the threat of ousting Johnson, who became speaker in October after his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, was ousted by party hardliners.

"It's not the perfect legislation, it's not the legislation that we would write if Republicans were in charge of both the House, the Senate, and the White House," Johnson told reporters on Friday. "This is the best possible product that we can get under these circumstances to take care of these really important obligations."

Representative Bob Good, chair of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, told reporters on Friday that the bills represent a "slide down into the abyss of greater fiscal crisis and America-last policies that reflect Biden and (Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer and (House Democratic leader Hakeem) Jeffries, and don't reflect the American people."

But Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who carries huge influence in the party, on April 12 voiced support for Johnson and in a Thursday social media post said Ukraine's survival is important for the US.

Israel has just handed Iran a major victory

What was supposed to be an attack to restore deterrence, the Israeli attack on Iran managed to do the opposite; it further proved to the Islamic Republic that the United States, Israel, and their allies are alien to this concept, an op-ed published in The Telegraph on Friday concluded.

The piece titled, “Israel has just handed Iran a major victory,” considered that the early Friday attack on Isfahan and Tabriz, which according to latest reports included several small drones that were launched from within Iran and were shot down by the country’s air defenses, has emboldened Iran even more to carry out a larger strike against the occupation entity any time in the future.

The writer accused the entity’s international allies of muting its attack and trying to contain it by attaching limited to it in fear of escalation, pointing out that this would hardly strike fear in the heart of the Islamic Republic.

Additionally, by not publicly claiming responsibility, Israel stuck to deniability with an inbuilt exit from the spiral of escalation.

He expressed frustration over the scope and extent of the Israeli aggression, comparing it to Iran’s massive operation.

Was that really it? Was that really the only response to hundreds of missiles and drones fired at Israel last week, costing a reported US$1 billion in defenses and demanding an international response?

“If the price for such a major assault is one limited jab at an air base, then that is extremely favorable to Iran. The lesson for the Ayatollah is clear: next time, double the payload. It’s worth it.”

The United States, following years of appeasement to Iran, is happy to play defense, the author said, criticizing Washington’s role in the event.

He mocked the US’ temerity to dub the operation they led to repel Iran’s retaliatory attack as a win, stressing that when it comes to hitting back, it is cowardly.

According to the publication, Iran’s foreign policy approach is gradual and strategic. It advances its agenda slowly and cautiously, testing the limits of what it can achieve. This incremental approach allows Iran to make gains over time while avoiding a decisive confrontation that could jeopardize its objectives.

But in the case that adversaries try to sneak up on the Islamic Republic, it would intervene decisively to deter further advances.

In conclusion, the author said that the West, including the United States, has failed to effectively counter Iran’s action policy, and thus Tehran was able to advance its plans with relative impunity.

Israel-Iran playing 'ping pong' under US supervision

Israel has carried out a military strike inside Iran; a US official told CNN Friday, the latest move is a dangerous escalation that threatens to push the already volatile region into all-out war.

The US was given advance notification Thursday of an intended Israeli strike in the coming days, but did not endorse the response, the senior US official said.

Iran’s air defense systems were activated in several locations after three explosions were heard close to a major military airbase near the Iranian city of Isfahan, state media reported early Friday morning. Iran’s semi-official FARS news agency said fighter jets were located at the airbase and that military radar was a possible target.

Multiple state-aligned news agencies reported that sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program were “completely secure” and the attack appeared to be limited in scope.

“Following the activation of air defense in some parts of the country to deal with some possible targets, reports indicate that so far, no large-scale strikes or explosions caused by any air threat has been reported,” Iranian state-run media reported.

Reports of Friday’s strike came hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told CNN that if Israel takes any further military action against Iran, its response would be “immediate and at a maximum level.”

“If the Israeli regime commits the grave error once again our response will be decisive, definitive and regretful for them,” he added, noting that this warning had been communicated to the White House via the Swiss Embassy in Tehran.

Tensions across the Middle East remain on a knife edge, following Iran’s unprecedented direct strike against Israel late Saturday. The attack, during which Iran launched more than 300 drones and cruise missiles toward Israel, came in response to a suspected Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic complex in the Syrian capital, Damascus, on 01 April, which killed a top commander, and several others.

Outgoing flights from several Iranian airports were briefly canceled or suspended early Friday but aviation authorities later lifted all restrictions.

Iran’s National Cyberspace center spokesperson Hossein Dalirian said on X that three drones “have been successfully shot down by the country’s air defense, there are no reports of a missile attack for now.”

Senior Iranian military commander Second Brigadier General Mihandoust said the sound of a loud explosion near Isfahan was caused by “air defense firing at a suspicious object” and that there was no “damage or incident,” according to the state-aligned Tasnim news agency.

Prior to Friday’s Israeli strike, the US expectation was the country would not target Iran’s civilian or nuclear facilities, another senior US official told CNN.

CNN has previously reported that Israel told the US its response would be limited in scope. US intelligence had suggested Israel was weighing a narrow and limited strike inside Iran because they feel like they have to respond with a kinetic action of some kind given the unprecedented scale of the Iranian attack.

The range of targets was “never specified in precise terms but nuclear and civilian locations were clearly not in that category,” the second official added.

Israel’s Western allies have both rallied to its defense in the wake of Iran’s attack Saturday, while also urging restraint.

Multiple explosions reported in Iran

Explosions were reported inside of Iran while unconfirmed reports indicated multiple Iranian sites were struck, possibly by Israel.

The semi-official Iranian Fars News Agency reported explosions near the city of Isfahan in central Iran. The state-run Iranian news agency Press TV also reported explosions in Isfahan but noted the reasons were still unknown.

Other unconfirmed reports indicate potential strikes near the cities of Daraa in Syria and Baghdad in Iraq.

Flights were being diverted around western Iran early Friday morning local time, according to the Associated Press.

It’s not clear what the immediate targets were if the strikes happened and if Israel is behind them, but Isfahan is home to Iranian nuclear facilities and sites.

Iran warned earlier on Thursday that the targeting of nuclear sites could result in the change of the nuclear doctrine in Tehran, which does not have nuclear weapons but possesses enriched uranium and holds the capacity to obtain them.

The alleged Israeli strikes will likely inflame tensions even further in the Middle East, which is already embroiled in conflicts in Gaza and in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

Israeli officials pledged earlier this week to respond to Iran, which sent a flurry of some 300 missiles and drones at Israel last weekend.

That attack, which was largely defeated by Israeli and allied defense systems, came in response to an alleged Israeli strike near the Iranian embassy in Syria that killed two high-ranking commanders.

The Biden administration pushed Israel not to respond to Iran, but Israeli officials were publicly arguing that such a brazen Iranian attack must be answered.

Iran, in turn, publicly warned that any Israeli attack would be met with a much harsher response than last weekend’s assault.

 

Middle East can't afford more conflicts

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan reaffirmed on Tuesday that the Middle East cannot afford further conflict, amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel.

Addressing a joint press conference with his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar in Islamabad on Tuesday during his official visit to Pakistan, leading a high-level delegation, Prince Faisal urged all parties to prioritize de-escalation.

Prince Faisal and Dar called for immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. While regretting the failure of the international community to ensure ceasefire in Gaza, both leaders demanded its immediate enforcement, opening of a humanitarian corridor and averting of famine that was leading to a catastrophe.

Prince Faisal said that a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which has been besieged for months due to the Israeli war, has become a necessity.

He said international efforts aimed at achieving a ceasefire in Gaza have been wholly insufficient. He emphasized the need for intensified efforts to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza and stressed the urgency of implementing an immediate ceasefire.

Prince Faisal called for an immediate end to the killings and sufferings of the people of Gaza. Palestinians were already living in an unstable region leading to a catastrophe in Gaza and ‘there is no need for further confrontation’, he said adding that ‘de-escalation should be everybody’s priority.

Prince Faisal said that so far more than 33,000 people had been killed in Gaza. “They are now facing a famine like situation and starving to death as the international humanitarian aid is not getting in. It is a complete failure of the international community,” he observed.

Terming the situation unacceptable, the Saudi minister said there was no justification to it. In reality, he said, the two United Nations resolutions regarding immediate ceasefire in Gaza had not seen implementation. Efforts were seen after six Western aid workers were killed but not when 33,000 Palestinians died which showed the double standards, he regretted.

On his part, Dar said Pakistan and Saudi Arabia shared the same feelings on Gaza, while calling upon the international community to help end the genocide.

“The world conscience must wake up and enforce an immediate and unconditional ceasefire to ensure unimpeded humanitarian aid. More Palestinians should not be killed due to starvation,” he said, and demanded for a global probe into the crimes committed against humanity in Gaza.

Prince Faisal and Dar reiterated the need to build up and convert the bilateral strong partnership into a strategic partnership and further promote economic cooperation for the mutual benefit of the two countries.

Prince Faisal termed his meetings with the Pakistani leadership very productive. He emphasized the importance of strategic partnership between the two countries and expressed commitment for strengthening of investment.

“The Saudi delegation was impressed with the proactive and business focused approach of the Pakistani side. There were significant investment opportunities in Pakistan, and termed their visit ‘very positive on their perspective’, which would lay the groundwork for future ventures.”

The Saudi minister also emphasized the need to tap the untapped potential in Pakistan. “We should continue to work closely for the economic progress and regional security with historic bilateral cooperation,” he added.

Iranian attack on Israel: All winners no loser

According to Jennifer Baik of AP, the unprecedented attack by Iran on Israel early Sunday ratcheted up regional tensions, confirming long-held fears about the Israel-Hamas war spiraling into a broader conflagration. But Iran, Israel, the United States and Hamas also walked away with some gains.

Israel

As more than 300 drones and missiles headed toward Israel in the early hours of Sunday, the country was able to successfully put to the test its aerial defense array, which, along with help from allies, blocked 99% of the projectiles and prevented any major damage.

By contrast, Israel’s military had suffered a bruising defeat at the hands of a far less equipped enemy when Hamas stormed from Gaza into Israel on October 07, 2023. That was a major blow to Israel’s image as a regional military powerhouse and shattered any sense of invincibility. The response to Iran’s attack could be what restores faith in the country’s military, even as its forces are bogged down in Gaza, more than six months after Israel declared war on Hamas there.

Israel has also boasted about the coalition of forces that helped it repel the Iranian assault. It’s a much-needed show of support at a time when Israel is at its most isolated because of concerns surrounding its conduct during the war against Hamas, including a worsening humanitarian crisis and a staggering death toll in Gaza.

Iran

Iran vowed repeatedly that it would respond to an apparent Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 01 that killed two generals. Sunday’s assault allowed Iran to show to its citizens that it won’t stand by when its assets are attacked and that it was serious when it threatened revenge.

With its strike, Iran was able to exhibit its fierce firepower, instill fear in some Israelis and disrupt the lives of many through school cancellations. But with little damage actually caused in Israel, Iran might hope that any response will be measured. Several hours after it launched the drones and missiles, Iran said the operation was over.

United States

The United States was a key player in repelling the assault, demonstrating to its allies around the world the power and reliability of American support.

Now, as Israel mulls how and whether to respond, that alliance will be put to the test, with the Biden administration seeking to exert its leverage on Israel and prevent it from carrying out a response that might worsen the conflict.

Hamas

Hamas, which is backed by Iran, welcomed the strike on Israel. Since launching its October 07 attack, Hamas had hoped that regional partners might come to its assistance and drag Israel into a broader war. While some have done — including the Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Yemen’s Houthis — Iran had not directly entered the fray until Sunday.

Hamas could hope that the attack is the first salvo in deeper Iranian engagement in the war in Gaza. It also could hope that violence in the West Bank, where an Israeli teen was killed and settlers rampaged in Palestinian towns, continues to heat up. At the very least, Iran’s attack may have emboldened Hamas to dig in its heels in current negotiations over a cease-fire, hoping the increased military pressure on Israel might lead it to accept the militant group’s harder-line terms for a deal.

US not to support Israeli attack on Iran

President Joe Biden has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the United States would not participate in any Israeli counter-offensive against Iran, according to reports on Sunday by CNN and the Wall Street Journal.

Speaking with Netanyahu late on Saturday, Biden suggested further response was unnecessary. Senior officials told their counterparts that the US would not participate in an offensive response against Iran, CNN and the Wall Street Journal reported

John Kirby, the White House's top national security spokesperson, told ABC's "This Week" program on Sunday that the United States will continue to help Israel defend itself, but does not want war with Iran.

"We don't seek escalated tensions in the region. We don't seek a wider conflict," Kirby said.

On Saturday night Iran launched drone and missile attacks against Israeli military and intelligence targets in response to the Zionist regime’s air raid on the consular building of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 01 that killed seven Iranian military advisors.

Hossein Salami, the chief of the IRGC, says the initial assessment is that the operation achieved a level of success that exceeded our expectations. However, he said, Iran is still receiving more information.

“Naturally, people living in occupied lands, Zionist officials and the terrorist and occupying armies of the Zionist regime and the US have a better understanding of the pummeling effects of these attacks at this moment,” Salami stated.

Salami said the US and France provided air cover for Israel in Iraq, Jordan and even parts of Syria, but tens of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles managed to punch through the layers of defensive capabilities.

“We could have launched a much larger attack, but we limited it to the capabilities that the Zionist regime had used to attack the Iranian consulate and martyr our dear commanders.”

Iran has warned Israel against reacting to the drone and missile attacks that targeted occupied territories on Saturday night. In a post on X, Iran's permanent mission to the United Nations said the country's attacks against Israeli positions were legal, adding that it can now see the situation as resolved.

"Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe," the statement said. 

Further information shows that for the first time in the past six months, the regime has stopped its attacks on the besieged Gaza Strip to deal with the barrage of drones and missiles coming from the Iranian territory.

 

 

Iran launches ‘Operation Truthful Promise’

Reportedly, Iran has launched retaliatory attacks against Israel, which struck its embassy in Damascus on April 01, killing 7 high-ranking military officials.

Israeli reports say Iran has already fired three waves of drones at Israeli positions, as well as a number of cruise missiles. Footage captured by citizens in Iraq, suggests Iran's famous Shahed-136 drones are among the UAVs launched at Israel.

The initial announcement regarding the launch of the Iranian attacks came from the Israeli military. Daniel Hagari, the army’s spokesperson, stated that the drones would take some hours to reach their destination while emphasizing Israel's readiness for the situation.

During a briefing with the press, Hagari highlighted that Israel has defensive and offensive measures in place and maintains close cooperation with the US and regional partners.

Iran also confirmed it has begun its retaliation against Israel through a TV announcement.

"In response to various crimes of the Zionist regime, including the attack on the Iranian consulate section in Damascus and the martyrdom of some of our country's military commanders and advisors in Syria, the IRGC's Air Force targeted specific objectives inside the occupied territories by hitting them with dozens of missiles and drones," a news anchor said, reading a statement by the Islamic Revolution Gaurd Corps (IRGC).

ABC News has quoted American officials claiming that 400 to 500 drones are currently making their way towards Israel after being launched from Iran's territory.

Before the direct Iranian attack on Israeli targets, Hezbollah initiated a significant rocket barrage targeting the northern areas of occupied Palestine and the Golan Heights.

A cyber attack also plunged vast areas of the occupied territories, including Tel Aviv, into darkness.

Further Information indicates that both the Lebanese group and the Ansarullah movement in Yemen have initiated drone attacks on the occupied territories concurrently with Iranian strikes.

Biden moving in wrong direction

"The United States ought to be distancing itself from Israel's illegal attack, but instead the Biden administration is moving to shield Israel from the consequences of its own actions," Daniel Larison wrote.

Israeli appears to want to goad Iran into a military response to divert attention from the slaughter and famine in Gaza and to trap the US into joining the fight. Biden has made it that much easier for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by volunteering to walk into the trap.

Israeli forces have routinely struck Iranian and other targets in Syria for more than a decade, but the attack on the consulate in Damascus was a major escalation both in terms of the location and the rank of the Iranian officers that were killed.

An imminent Iranian response to Israel's deadly bombing of Tehran's consulate in the Syrian capital earlier this month is heightening fears of a devastating regional conflict in which the United States—Israel's top ally and arms supplier—could become directly involved.

The US embassy in Jerusalem issued a security warning on Thursday and restricted its employees' travel ahead of a possible Iranian response as soon as Friday. US officials, according to Politico, have assessed that Iran is calibrating its plans for a major retaliatory strike against Israel to send a message—but not spark a regional war that compels Washington to respond.

US President Joe Biden and top administration officials have in recent days stressed their "ironclad" commitment to defending Israel in the case of an Iranian reprisal, despite widespread condemnation of Israel's consulate attack as a significant escalation and flagrant violation of international law.

"When the Israeli regime completely violates the immunity of individuals and diplomatic places in violation of international law and the Vienna Conventions, legitimate defense is a necessity," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said in a statement Thursday.

Two unnamed US officials told CBS News that Iran's response could include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country." Biden administration officials have asked China and other nations to urge Iran not to respond to the consulate attack.

The Israeli government, which is currently waging a catastrophic war on the Gaza Strip, signaled it would respond forcefully to any Iranian retaliation, raising the possibility of direct US involvement.

Axios reported that the senior US military commander in charge of the Middle East visited Israel Thursday to coordinate around a possible attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies.

While war hawks in the US have used the surge in tensions to agitate for a direct American-Israeli attack on Iran, advocacy groups and anti-war commentators have warned against any additional escalation, fearing the eruption of all-out military conflict in the Middle East.

"A regional war involving the US, Israel, and Iran would be disastrous for US interests, the people of Iran, and the security of the region as a whole," the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) said earlier this week.

Responsible Statecraft columnist Daniel Larison wrote Friday that with its unwavering support for the Netanyahu government, the Biden administration is moving in the wrong direction.

 

Iran Conundrum

Eurasia group analyst Gregory Brew said Khamenei was "trapped in a strategic conundrum".

"Iran must respond to restore deterrence and maintain credibility among its Resistance Front allies. But on the other hand, retaliating to restore deterrence would likely bring an even greater, and more destructive Israeli response, likely with US assistance," he said.

The Iranian sources said the United States had asked Iran to exercise restraint and allow space for diplomacy, cautioning Tehran that in the event of a direct attack it will stand by Israel.

Iran believes Netanyahu aims to draw Tehran into a war; therefore its retaliation could be a restrained one that avoids direct strikes on Israeli territory and may draw on Tehran's allies.

Reportedly, the US Middle East envoy has called the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Iraq to ask them to deliver a message to Iran urging it to lower tensions with Israel.

A source familiar with the issue said the US might well agree to revived nuclear talks if that could prevent a conflagration.

“If we are talking about talks and not (about) reaching an agreement, then it would seem to be well worth the price if the payoff is minimizing the risk of a regional escalation into which the US would be dragged,” said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group said Iran’s dilemma was "to figure out how to retaliate in a way that it saves face without losing its head".

"Israel is much more unpredictable than the US," he said. "The Supreme Leader is clearly concerned that rather than delivering the deterrent effect he might hope to achieve, an attack on Israel may only fuel a counter-escalation he might have hoped to avoid."

 

Hamas making military history

After six months of brutal fighting and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis, multiple Israeli and western commentators have argued that Hamas is winning the war and making military history in the process.

Sir Tom Phillips, a former British diplomat who served as Ambassador to Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, wrote on April 09 2024 in Haaretz that Hamas had succeeded in its objective of obtaining the release of as many Palestinians held in Israeli prisons as possible, and of re-asserting themselves as a force to be reckoned with.

He added that Hamas had survived the IDF onslaught for longer than any war Israel has ever fought, and in doing so, they have thoroughly dented Israel’s much vaunted deterrent status. In brief, and with daunting potential long-term consequences for Israel, the IDF no longer looks invincible.

Hamas has blocked a potential normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which looked inevitable before the war began on October 07, 2023, and put the Palestinian issue back squarely on the international map after years of the Palestinian Authority (PA) failing to do so.

A final victory for Hamas, Phillip notes, is the “head-spinning speed of Israel’s post October 07 delegitimization in the eyes of many in the world.”

On April 08, Israeli journalist Amos Harel wrote in Haaretz that Israel’s primary goals in Khan Yunis haven’t been achieved.

Following the withdrawal of the 98th Division from the southern Gaza city, Harel noted that the Israeli army’s two goals were the capture of top Hamas officials in Gaza and the rescue of the Israeli captives currently held by the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza.

“The public should be told the truth. The enormous death and destruction the IDF is leaving behind in Gaza, alongside quite a few losses on our side, aren’t currently bringing us any closer to achieving the war’s goals,” he concluded.

In an analysis in Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli political analyst Nadav Eyal explained that Israel had wished to restore its power of deterrence, eliminate Hamas, and free the captives held by Hamas in Gaza. But none of these objectives have been achieved.

“Israel’s failure is not based on presenting the goals of the war – which were fully supported by all Western countries. The failure lies entirely in the execution,” Eyal wrote, adding that war is not won just by killing. A complementary political act is needed.

The first failure, according to the report, was the civilian suffering in Gaza.

“Those who want to overthrow the rule of Hamas in Gaza do not conduct a Roman-style revenge campaign; carry out a protective wall or retaliatory action as if it were the 1950s.”

The Israeli commentator also blamed Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for his attitude towards Washington.

“Netanyahu’s public and evil confrontation with the Biden administration only emphasized Israel’s weakness,” he said.

Eyal also noted that Israel had become isolated in the international community and that even its allies in Washington and Brussels were beginning to turn against it.

“Not only has Israel lost support in most of the West, and is very close to an arms embargo from Europe, even among its great ally, the tectonic plates are in motion.”

On March 27, Israeli intelligence officials also noted the change in Washington. They told The Telegraph that the Israeli government’s stated goal to eradicate Hamas in the Gaza Strip has become unachievable after the US turned its back on Tel Aviv by abstaining during a UN Security Council (UNSC) vote earlier in the week.

“If you’d asked me this a month ago, I would definitely say yes we can eliminate Hamas because, at that time, the Americans were backing Israel,” an Israeli intelligence official told the British daily, reportedly suggesting this assessment had now changed.

The US doesn’t support going into Rafah, which they did before, so the cards right now are not good, meaning Israel has to do something dramatic and drastic to change the momentum and climate, highlighting that pressure is mounting on Israel to reach some sort of a deal, which means Hamas could survive. Both Hamas and the Iranians are playing on that.”

According to the official, the belief inside the Israeli security apparatus is that Hamas is focused on surviving until the summer, when the US election campaign will go into full gear.

Speaking on the Turkish channel Haber Global, military analyst and retired colonel Eray Gucuer also suggested Hamas is winning the war while discussing the Israeli withdrawal from Khan Yunis ahead of a presumed assault on Rafah.

“If the Israeli army really is in a situation where it could not attack Rafah except by withdrawing its brigade from Khan Yunis, this means that it effectively lost the ground war.”

“Israel, in this war, almost completely destroyed Gaza and killed thousands of civilians. However, the Qassam Brigades still exist. Until this moment, it has military superiority on the ground … no one with military experience can hide his admiration for the amazing tactics adopted by Al-Qassam… Indeed, they are writing history.”

“Imagine, since the beginning of the war in Gaza and until today, we still hear about Beit Hanoun and Ben Lahia, Al-Nasr neighborhood, and Al-Zaytoun neighborhood. Why? Because the Qassam operatives invented a tactic for the first time in my life that I have seen in the history of guerrilla wars,” he concluded.

 

Courtesy: Information clearing House

Indonesian entry in OECD linked to normalizing ties with Israel

According to Reuters, Indonesia is under pressure to normalize ties with Israel to become the 39th member of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.

It’s a move that needs the consent of all OECD countries, including Israel, which has been a member state since 2010.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz objected to Indonesia’s inclusion unless it made a gesture toward Israel, such as normalization. The OECD made normalization with Israel part of Indonesia’s requirements for OECD membership.

It’s a step that comes as Israel has become increasingly isolated on the international stage due to the Gaza war, and it had been presumed that it was not possible to expand its diplomatic ties until the end of that half-a-year conflict.

Israel and Indonesia have long had silent relations in trade and tourism but have otherwise been diplomatic foes on the international stage.

Indonesia had been expected to be one of the countries that would normalize ties under the Abraham Accords, with the former Trump administration promising them a billion dollars to do so.

Plans for the two countries to normalize ties had proceeded under the Biden administration but were scuttled as a result of the Israel-Hamas war, which began on October 07, 2023.

They were revived this winter through the OECD membership process. Among the signs of a shift in their relationship was Israel’s decision to allow Indonesia to participate in the airdrops of humanitarian aid into Gaza, a step it had denied Turkey, with whom it has diplomatic ties.

The OECD outlined its understanding of the role it would plan in the normalization process in a letter Mathias Cormann wrote to Israel, dated March 26.

“I am pleased to confirm that Council has formally agreed to a clear and explicit pre-condition that diplomatic relations must be established with all OECD Members before any decision to invite Indonesia to become a Member of the Organization,” Cormann wrote.

This means, he stated, that the final inanition to Indonesia to become an OECD Member will not be tabled for a decision by Council before diplomatic relations have been established with all OECD Members, he stressed.

“Moreover, I recall that in conformity with Article 16 of the OECD Convention, any future decision to invite Indonesia to become an OECD Member will require unanimity among all OECD Members, including Israel,” he wrote.

Katz, in a letter dated April 10 thanked the OECD. 

“I share your expectation that this process will be a transformative one for Indonesia. I am looking forward to a positive change in Indonesia’s policies in general and vis a vis Israel in particular, notably renouncing its discriminatory policies toward Israel and establishing bilateral diplomatic relations," said Katz.

Some people still believe Israel should eliminate Hamas

I was shocked to read an article that instead of retreating from its principles, the West should assertively support Israel's efforts to safeguard its citizens while seeking avenues for a lasting peace that addresses the legitimate grievances of both Israelis and Palestinians.

It says, the prevailing narrative in Western circles characterizes Israel's actions in Palestine as an unjustified onslaught, primarily due to the significant civilian casualties in Gaza. This perception, though flawed, is not unexpected, given Western society's empathy for the oppressed and its Judeo-Christian roots.

The critics are critical of West's abrupt shift from unwavering support to threatening withdrawal unless a ceasefire is agreed upon has jeopardized Israel's mission to dismantle Hamas.

They insist that despite concerns about the coherence of Israel's campaign, its goal to neutralize Hamas as a military force is both rational and achievable, having already incapacitated a significant portion of Hamas's arsenal. However, eliminating Hamas's network of fighters, often embedded within civilian areas, presents complex challenges and risks civilian casualties due to Hamas's use of human shields.

The supporters of Israel say that contrary to the liberal argument that wars against terror are futile, history demonstrates that military action can undermine terrorist ideologies. Hamas's defeat is not only technically possible but crucial for Israel and the broader Western world.

They accuse that since seizing control of Gaza in 2007, Hamas has evolved into a sophisticated terror organization capable of destabilizing the Middle East and posing a threat to Israel's security.

They insist, allowing Hamas to prevail would normalize terrorism as a viable political strategy and intensify internal conflicts within Israel. Additionally, it could divert attention from addressing larger security threats in the region, such as Iran's nuclear ambitions.

While Israel faces legitimate criticisms, such as restrictions on Palestinian movement and settlement expansion, these actions are primarily driven by security concerns rather than colonial ambitions.

They say by wavering in its support for Israel's right to self-defense, the West undermines its leadership role and succumbs to moral cowardice.

They claim it is crucial to recognize Israel's complex security challenges and refrain from pressuring for premature ceasefires that could leave Hamas intact and perpetuate the cycle of violence.

 

Israel: Oil port in Haifa attacked

According to Tehran Times, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq says it has carried out a fresh strike on an Israeli target in the occupied Palestinian territories.

The Iraqi umbrella group of anti-terror groups has made the announcement in a statement published on its Telegram channel.

The Iraqi resistance said it launched an operation against oil refineries in the port city of Haifa by using drones.

It said the attack was in response to the massacres committed by Israel against Palestinian civilians, including women, children and the elderly.

“In continuation of our path in resisting the occupation, in support of our people in Gaza, and in response to the massacres committed by the usurping entity against Palestinian civilians, including children, women and the elderly, the fighters of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, this morning, 10/4/2024, targeted the Haifa oil port in our occupied lands with two drones,” the statement said.

The group said it will continue its operations as long as the regime continues its bloodshed in Gaza.

 

Israel Faces Irremediable Defeat

Historically, wars unite Israelis, not anymore. Not only that Israelis do not agree with Benjamin Netanyahu’s war; they simply do not believe that the prime minister is the man who could win this supposedly existential fight. 

An end to the Gaza war, even if branded as a ‘victory’ by Netanyahu, will only further the polarization and deepen Israel’s worst internal political struggle since its founding on the ruins of historic Palestine. A continuation of the war will add to the schisms, as it will only serve as a reminder of an irremediable defeat.

Netanyahu’s war remains unwinnable simply because liberation wars, often conducted through guerrilla warfare tactics, are far more complicated than traditional combat.

Nearly six months after the Israeli attack on Gaza, it has become clear that Palestinian Resistance groups are durable and well-prepared for a much longer fight. 

Netanyahu, supported by far-right ministers and an equally hardline Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, insists that more firepower is the answer. Though the unprecedented amount of explosives, used by Israel in Gaza, killed and wounded over 100,000 Palestinians, an Israeli victory remains elusive. 

What do Israelis want and, more precisely, what is their prime minister’s end-game in Gaza, anyway? 

Major opinion polls since October 07 continued to produce similar results: the Israeli public prefers Benny Gantz, leader of the National Unity Party, over the prime minister and his Likud party. 

A recent poll conducted by the Israeli newspaper Maariv also indicated that one of Netanyahu’s closest and most important coalition partners, Finance Minister and leader of the Religious Zionist Party, Bezalel Smotrich, is virtually irrelevant in terms of public support. If elections were to be held today, the far-right minister’s party would not even pass the electoral threshold. 

Most Israelis are calling for new elections this year. If they are to receive their wish today, the pro-Netanyahu coalition would only be able to muster 46 seats, compared to its rivals with 64. 

And, if the Israeli coalition government – currently controlling 72 seats out of 120 Knesset seats – is to collapse, the rightwing dominance over Israeli politics will shatter, likely for a long time. 

All of Netanyahu’s political shenanigans, which served him well in the past, would fall short from allowing him to return to power, keeping in mind he is already 74 years of age. 

A greatly polarized society, Israelis learned to blame an individual or a political party for all of their woes. This is partly why election outcomes can sharply differ between one election cycle to another. Between April 2019 and November 2022, Israel held five general elections, and now they are demanding yet another one. 

The November 2022 elections were meant to be decisive, as they ended years of uncertainty, and settled on the “most right-wing government in the history of Israel” – an oft-repeated description of Israel’s modern government coalitions. 

To ensure Israel does not delve back into indecision, Netanyahu’s government wanted to secure its gains for good. Smotrich, along with National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, wanted to fashion a new Israeli society that is forever tilted towards their brand of religious and ultranationalist Zionism. 

Netanyahu, on the other hand, simply wanted to hold on to power, partly because he became too accustomed to the perks of his office, and also because he is desperately hoping to avoid jail time due to his several corruption trials. 

To achieve this, the right and far-right parties have diligently worked to change the rules of the game, by curtailing the power of the judiciary and ending the oversight of the Supreme Court. They failed at some tasks, and succeeded at others, including an amendment to the country’s Basic Laws to curtail the power of Israel’s highest court, thus its right to overturn the government’s policies. 

Though Israelis protested en masse, it was clear that the initial energy of these protests, starting in January 2023, was petering out, and that a government with such a substantial majority – at least, per Israel’s standards – will not easily relent. 

The Palestinian Al-Aqsa Flood Operation is often examined in terms of its military and intelligence components, if not usefulness, but rarely in terms of its strategic outcomes. It placed Israel at a historic dilemma that even Netanyahu’s comfortable Knesset majority cannot – and most likely will not – be able to resolve.

 Complicating matters, on January 01, 2024 the Supreme Court officially annulled the decision by Netanyahu’s coalition to strike down the power of the judiciary. 

The news though significant, was overshadowed by many other crises plaguing the country, mostly blamed on Netanyahu and his coalition partners: the military and intelligence failure leading to October 07, the grinding war, the shrinking economy, the risk of a regional conflict, the rift between Israel and Washington, the growing global anti-Israel sentiment, and more. 

The problems continue to pile up, and Netanyahu, the master politician of former times, is now only hanging by the thread of keeping the war going for as long as possible to defer his mounting crises for as long as possible. 

Yet, an indefinite war is not an option, either. The Israeli economy, according to recent data by the country’s Central Bureau of Statistics, has shrunk by over 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023. It is likely to continue its free fall in the coming period. 

Moreover, the army is struggling, fighting an unwinnable war without realistic goals. The only major source for new recruits can be obtained from ultra-Orthodox Jews, who have been spared the battlefield to study in yeshivas, instead. 

70 percent of all Israelis, including many in Netanyahu’s own party, want the Haredi to join the army. On March 28, the Supreme Court ordered a suspension of state subsidies allocated to these ultra-Orthodox communities. 

If that is to happen, the crisis will deepen on multiple fronts. If the Haredi lose their privileges, Netanyahu’s government is likely to collapse; if they maintain them, the other government, the post October 07 war council, is likely to collapse as well. 

Courtesy: Information Clearing House