Axis of resistance as defined by western media

ran's role as leader of Axis of Resistance - which includes the Houthis, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hamas and militias in Iraq and Syria - had to be balanced against avoiding getting sucked into a regional war over Gaza.

Tehran's messaging to - and about - the Houthis requires a measure of deniability about the extent of its control over them - but also an ability to claim some credit for their anti-Israel actions.

Strikes by United States and Britain on Houthi targets have failed to deter the group which controls a large chunk of Yemen including the capital Sanaa and much of the country's Red Sea coast by the Bab al-Mandab strait.

The Houthis, who first emerged in the 1980s as an armed group in opposition to Saudi Arabia in Yemen, are said to be armed, funded and trained by Iran and are part of its anti-West, anti-Israel Axis of Resistance.

As reported by Reuters, a senior US official informed that Washington had asked China to use its leverage with Iran to persuade it to restrain the Houthis, including in conversations Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had this month with senior Chinese Communist Party official Liu Jianchao.

A senior Iranian official said while Chinese officials discussed their concerns thoroughly in the meetings, they never mentioned any requests from Washington.

On January 14, China's foreign minister Wang Yi called for an end to attacks on civilian ships in the Red Sea - without naming the Houthis or mentioning Iran - and the maintenance of supply chains and the international trade order.

Victor Gao, chair professor at China's Soochow University, said China, as the world's biggest trading nation, was disproportionately affected by the shipping disruption and restoring stability in the Red Sea was a priority.

Gao, a former Chinese diplomat and an adviser to oil giant Saudi Aramco, said Beijing would view Israel's treatment of the Palestinians as the root cause of the Red Sea crisis and would not want to publicly ascribe blame to the Houthis.

A diplomat familiar with the matter said China had been talking to Iran about the issue but it was unclear how seriously Tehran was taking Beijing's advice.

Two officials in the Yemeni government, an enemy of the Houthis, said they were aware that several countries, including China, had sought to influence Iran to rein the Houthis in.

Analysts Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group and Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said China had potential leverage over Iran because of its oil purchases and because Iran was hoping to attract more Chinese direct investment in future.

Both said China had so far been reluctant to use its leverage, for several reasons.

"China prefers to free-ride on the US safeguarding freedom of navigation in the Red Sea by bloodying the Houthis' nose," said Vaez, adding that Beijing was also aware that Iran did not have total control over its Yemeni allies.

=============

Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam said on Thursday that Iran to date had not conveyed any message from China about scaling back attacks.

"They will not inform us of such a request, especially since Iran's stated position is to support Yemen. It condemned the American-British strikes on Yemen, and considered Yemen's position honourable and responsible," he said.

The stakes are high for Iran as China is one of the few powers capable of providing the billions of dollars of investment Tehran needs to maintain the capacity of its oil sector and keep its economy afloat.

China's influence was evident in 2023 when it facilitated an agreement between Iran and regional rival Saudi Arabia to end years of hostilities.

There are robust economic ties between China and Iran, Beijing's influence on Tehran's geopolitical decisions was not absolute.

Iranian state media says Chinese firms have only invested US$185 million since then. State media also said last year that Iranian non-oil exports to China fell 68% in the first five months of 2023 while Iran's imports from China rose 40%.

By contrast, Chinese companies committed last year to invest billions in Saudi Arabia after the countries signed a comprehensive strategic partnership in December 2022.

While China could not be ignored, Tehran had other priorities to consider and its decisions were shaped by a complex interplay of factors.

Regional alliances and priorities as well as ideological considerations contribute significantly to Tehran's decisions.

Iran has to adopt a nuanced strategy when it came to the Gaza war, as well as the Houthi attacks, and that Tehran would not abandon its allies.

 

 

Hezbollah targets northern Israel

Heavy fire from Lebanon targeted northern Israel on Saturday, the Israeli military said, adding it had responded by striking a terrorist cell that took part in the attack, as top US and European diplomats sought to stop spillover from the Gaza war, reports Reuters.

Shortly after rocket sirens sounded across northern Israel, the military said that approximately 40 launches from Lebanon toward the area of Meron in northern Israel were identified.

There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage.

Powerful Lebanese armed group Hezbollah said it hit a key Israeli observation post early on Saturday with 62 rockets as a preliminary response to the killing of Hamas' deputy chief earlier this week.

Tensions have been high since Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed by a drone on Tuesday in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the stronghold of Hamas' Iranian-backed Lebanese ally Hezbollah, in an attack widely attributed to sworn foe Israel.

The head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said on Friday Lebanon would be exposed to more Israeli operations if his group did not respond to the killing.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the European Union's senior diplomat Josep Borrell began a new diplomatic push on Friday to stop the spillover from the three-month-old Gaza war into Lebanon, the Israeli-occupied West Bank, and Red Sea shipping lanes.

Israel and Hezbollah often trade fire across the border, the West Bank is boiling with emotion and the Iran-aligned Houthis seem determined to continue attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes until Israel halts its bombardment of Gaza.

The offensive, aimed at wiping out the Islamist movement that rules Gaza, has killed 22,600 people, according to Palestinian health officials, and devastated the densely populated enclave of 2.3 million people.

There has been no let up in the conflict despite several trips to the region by Blinken and other senior diplomats.

The official Palestinian WAFA news agency reported on Saturday that 18 Palestinians were killed by an Israeli attack on a house east of Khan Younis in Gaza.

Israel, which says it has killed 8,000 militants since the October 07, 2023 Hamas attack, has announced a more targeted approach as it faces global pressure to limit huge civilian casualties.

Israel has listed 175 soldiers as killed in action since its offensive began.

Blinken is due to visit the West Bank during his week-long tour starting on Friday in Turkey, which has offered to mediate. He will also hold talks in Israel, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Exploring reasons for current situation in Gaza

An Iranian parliament member has condemned Arab countries for their inaction and impotence against the Israeli regime. He went to the extent of saying today’s dire situation in the Gaza strip is the result of their largely pro-Israeli policies. 

Mohammad Sargazi warned that the behavior of Arab states will ultimately lay waste to their own interests. “If the inaction and disunity of Arab countries continue and they fail to stop the crimes of the Zionist regime against the oppressed people of Palestine, they themselves will soon turn into legitimate targets for the military of the United States and Israel,” he added. 

The lawmaker stated that Israel began a massive massacre of Palestinians in Gaza after Arab governments refused to get themselves involved in the affairs of Palestine for years. 

“Arab governments and Islamic countries must come together to stop these crimes and take practical action. The inaction of Arab governments to stop the crimes against the oppressed people of Palestine will have no result other than what we are witnessing today,” he noted.

In recent years, Some Arab countries including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and most recently Saudi Arabia, have moved towards recognizing the Israeli regime as the acting government of Palestine while disregarding Palestinians’ call for support. 

Since Israel began its latest onslaughts against Palestinians, certain Arab states in the region have merely released statements condemning the regime for its actions. 

The Cairo Peace Summit that was held in Egypt last month failed to bear any concrete results. Some videos circulating online have shown aid trucks sent to 
Gaza by some Arab countries filled with shrouds and expired antibiotics, which are unlikely to be of significant help as more than 2.3 million people in the territory are being deprived of food, water, and fuel. 

Several Palestinian activists have also taken to social media in recent weeks, complaining that they have long been abandoned by the majority of the Arab world. 

 

Hezbollah warns of regional war if Gaza bombing goes on

The second in command of Hezbollah — the powerful Iranian backed militia in Lebanon — has said Israel’s killing of civilians in Gaza risks wider war in the Middle East.

Sheikh Naim Qassem told the BBC that very serious and very dangerous developments could occur in the region, and no-one would be able to stop the repercussions.

Hezbollah’s deputy leader was speaking in an interview in Beirut, as the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza said more than 10,000 people had been killed there.

“The danger is real,” he said, “because Israel is increasing its aggression against civilians and killing more women and children. Is it possible for this to continue and increase, without bringing real danger to the region? I think not.”

He insisted any escalation would be linked to Israel’s actions. “Every possibility has a response,” he said. Hezbollah, “the Party of God” has plenty of possibilities.

The Shia group — classed as a terrorist organization by the UK, US and the Arab League — is the largest political and military force in Lebanon.

So far its response to the war in Gaza has involved amplifying its warnings, but carefully calibrating its actions.

When an Israeli strike killed a woman and three children in southern Lebanon on Sunday, Hezbollah used Grad rockets for the first time in the conflict, killing an Israeli civilian.

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has threatened that every civilian death in Lebanon will reap another across the border. But notably, he has not threatened Israel with all-out war

While insisting that all options are on the table the militant group has confined itself to cross-border attacks, hitting mainly military targets.

More than 60 of its fighters have been killed, but it has plenty more battle-hardened supporters to replace them. One fighter buried in Beirut this week was the fifth member of his family to die for Hezbollah, going back generations.

Throughout our interview the organization’s deputy leader tried to portray Hezbollah as a defensive organization — though it is committed to Israel’s destruction and sparked a war with Israel in 2006 by abducting two of its soldiers in a cross-border raid.

Sheikh Qassem claimed Israel “initiated the aggression against Gaza in a hideous way”.

When the BBC pointed out that it was Hamas that had attacked Israel on October 07, he defended the attacks as an inevitable response to Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands.

He repeated the claim that Israeli forces, not Hamas, killed many Israeli civilians. But what of the helmet cameras — worn by the Hamas militants themselves — showing them on a killing spree?

He parried the question. “Why don’t we look at what Israel has done inside Gaza,” he said. “They kill civilians and demolish homes.”

He called the Hamas attacks a great result for the Palestinian resistance and denied they had backfired. What about the 10,000 Gazans who have been killed since then? “The massacres committed by Israel are mobilizing the Palestinians more and more to cling to their land,” he replied.

He conceded that Iran supports and finances Hezbollah but claimed it did not give the orders. But experts say it is Tehran that calls the shots and will decide whether or not to engage in all-out war.

And if Israeli forces have to wage war on a second front with Hezbollah, they will be facing an enemy with more arms than most countries. The militant group puts Hamas in the shade, with an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles.

It has up to 60,000 fighters, including special forces, regular fighters, and reserves, according to Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based defense and security consultant, who has studied Hezbollah for decades.

Back in 2006 the group fought Israel to a standstill, but Lebanon had a lot more dead. More than 1,000 of its people were killed, most of them civilians, and whole neighborhoods were flattened in Hezbollah strongholds. Israel lost 121 soldiers and 44 civilians.

Lebanon has careened from crisis to crisis since then — with the devastating explosion in Beirut port in 2020, the collapse of the economy, and the disintegration of the political system. Small wonder few here have an appetite for war.

Many worry that Hezbollah’s cross-border attacks could drag this country into a war it cannot afford. Sheikh Qassem is unapologetic. “It’s the right of any Lebanese to be afraid of war,” he said. “That’s normal. Nobody likes war. Tell the Israeli entity to stop the aggression, so the battles do not expand.”

There could be many shades of escalation ahead — short of all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel. But if it comes it will bring devastation all round, says Blanford.

“It’s going to make what’s happening in Gaza look like a walk in the park,” he told the BBC.

“Israel will be in lockdown for the duration of the conflict. Most of its population will have to remain in bomb shelters,” he said.

“There would be no civil aviation or maritime traffic. Hezbollah’s larger guided missiles could hit military targets across the country.”

As for Lebanon, he said Israel would reduce it to “a car park”.

For now, Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran are all holding back, old enemies assessing new realities.

That doesn’t mean all-out war won’t happen — by miscalculation if not by design.

This is a dangerous new chapter in a blood-soaked region. After October 07, the only certainties appear to be more anguish, death, and destruction.

Hezbollah, Israel exchange fire at Lebanese border

Lebanon's Hezbollah said on Thursday it mounted multiple strikes on Israeli army positions including its first using explosive drones, and Israel launched air strikes on southern Lebanon in a sharp escalation of violence.

The Israeli army said it responded to launches from Lebanon toward Israel with air strikes on Hezbollah targets, along with tank and artillery fire.

Hezbollah has been exchanging fire with Israeli forces across the Israeli-Lebanese border since the Palestinian militant group Hamas and Israel went to war on October 07, in the deadliest escalation at the frontier since a 2006 war.

Lebanon's National News Agency on Thursday said four people were killed near the southern village of Hula during Israeli shelling.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is due on Friday to deliver his first speech since the war began.

The group said in a statement its fighters launched 19 simultaneous strikes on Israeli army positions in Israel using guided missiles, artillery and other weapons.

Hezbollah said two drones packed with explosives struck an Israeli army command position in the disputed Shebaa Farms area at the border.

Israeli shelling struck the outskirts of Khiyam town some 6 km (3.75 miles) from the border, slightly injuring one civilian, the town's mayor, Ali Rashed, told Reuters. "His house caught fire and people are putting it out," he said by phone.

"The intensity of the shelling was higher than previous days. The shelling and the counter shelling were more than any previous level and included the whole area," he said.

Lebanon's National News Agency reported Israeli shells hit various areas of the south along the border.

Hezbollah's attack using explosive drones came a few days after the group said for the first time it had used a surface-to-air missile against an Israeli drone.

Israel has held the Shebaa Farms, a 15-square-mile (39-square-km) area of land, since the 1967 Middle East war. Both Syria and Lebanon claim the Shebaa Farms are Lebanese.

 

 

Hezbollah surprises Israeli regime again

Hezbollah has taken an iron fist approach to defend Lebanon's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Lately, it has targeted Israeli military installations, troops and destroyed a sophisticated spying network. 

Since the Palestinian resistance launched the al-Aqsa Storm Operation, hostilities have gradually flared up between Hezbollah and Israeli forces on the Lebanese border with occupied Palestine. 

The Lebanese organization, which forced the Israeli occupation out of Lebanon in the year 2000 and defeated the regime again when it launched a war on Lebanon in July 2006, is now engaging the regime again militarily. 

Experts believe events on the border are not exactly tit-for-tat exchanges, but far from a full-blown-out war. 

The exchange of fire has inflicted losses and casualties on both sides. 

On Monday, Israeli media reported that another regime’s soldier has been killed, and three others have been injured after their tank was overturned in the north, on the border with Lebanon. 

Hezbollah announced the martyrdom of Mohammad Najib Halawi from the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila. 

It's been this way for some two weeks now.

Hezbollah is a formidable force in Lebanon, and its impressive military capabilities have been on show once again. 

On Friday, the organization published a video detailing the functions of Israel's technical and spying equipment in 42 locations on the border, how they operate and the security threat they pose to all Lebanese people, across all of Lebanon and its borders with other Arab countries. 

The Israeli equipment includes day and night thermal monitoring and surveillance cameras, different types of radar towers, embedded systems, and naval monitoring systems. 

The Israeli intelligence systems that contact traitors in Lebanon are also shown in the video as well as sophisticated spying network technology, all of which are controlled by Israeli military operators far away from the border. 
The four-minute clip, which begins with a narration stating "These are not defensive positions that the Zionist entity portrays them to be", concludes with Hezbollah missiles, rockets and gunfire either destroying the Israeli equipment or damaging them to the extent they are out of service. 

At one point, a precision-guided missile is shown being fired toward a radar tower with a direct hit.  

Hezbollah says the damage it inflicted in destroying the equipment is a huge blow to the Israeli spying and monitoring network in Lebanon. 

Hezbollah says the calculated attacks go a long way to serving Lebanon's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and its people. 

The organization has also been targeting Israeli military vehicles, tanks, and troops in response to Israeli attacks on Southern Lebanon. 

The men it has lost are being labeled as the martyrs on the path to al-Quds, in reference to the Israeli-occupied Palestinian city that hosts the holy al-Aqsa Mosque, also known as Jerusalem. 

Israeli occupation forces continue to target forests in various areas of the Lebanese border with incendiary shells, which has led to the outbreak of a number of fires.

On Monday, the occupation regime acknowledged the death of a first sergeant in the Israeli army on the northern front, announcing that he was killed as a result of another tank being hit in the area. 

On Sunday, Hezbollah announced that it had targeted points of the Israeli army on the Lebanon-occupied Palestine border.

Hezbollah confirmed in a statement that after careful follow-up and monitoring its forces located an Israeli infantry force in the al-Malikiyah area and its surroundings (in southern Lebanon), which was immediately targeted with appropriate weapons, inflicting confirmed casualties.

In a separate statement, the group said that it had targeted the al-Samaqa area in the occupied Lebanese Sheba'a farms with appropriate weapons that led to direct hits on Israeli forces.

The group also announced that its forces targeted an Israeli drone with a surface-to-air missile, hitting it directly, and it was spotted within eyesight as it fell into the occupied Palestinian territories.

Reports suggest countries around the world, in particular the West and the United States at the forefront, have been trying their best diplomatic efforts to prevent the merciless Israeli war on Gaza from spilling over to Lebanon or elsewhere in the region. 

The regime's mass killing of children in Gaza is making that very difficult. 

Military bases belonging to the illegal American presence in Iraq and Syria have come under attack dozens of times by local forces already. 

Experts have said the silence of the Hezbollah leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, since Hamas staged the October 07 Storm operation, has frightened the Israeli regime, as it remains clueless whether another front will open in the north. 

The occupation regime may not have to wait too much longer. 

The Hezbollah secretary-general will deliver a speech on Friday, November 3, 2023, at 15:00 local time, during a ceremony honoring the martyrs on the path to al-Quds.

It is a widely anticipated speech in which the Hezbollah chief will no doubt address his party's position on the war on Gaza as well as the devastating Israeli bombardment on the completely blockaded coastal enclave.

 

Israel Gaza ground offensive could get messy

According to The Hill, Israel’s expected ground offensive in Gaza will be potentially catastrophic for civilian life in Gaza, while also posing steep risks for Israeli forces and raising the danger of widening a war with Iran-backed proxy groups. 

For the first time in years, Israeli forces will have to penetrate deep into Gaza, a coastal enclave where thousands of Hamas militants operate out of an underground network of tunnels, while also hiding among civilians. 

Israel’s stated goal of eliminating the group will require a long, bloody fight against guerilla combatants known to use human shields in the densely packed Gaza Strip. 

“It’s going to be very, very messy,” said Raphael Cohen, a senior political scientist at Rand Corporation with expertise on the Middle East and defense strategy. 

“Rooting all that out is not particularly easy. And in order to do that, that’s a fairly significant military operation and it will take a lot of time — potentially a lot of casualties.”

Further complicating the mission is that Israeli forces need to rescue some 150 hostages, including some Americans and other foreign nationals. 

And a large-scale attack in Gaza may open a new front in the war, with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah reportedly warning it will respond if Israeli forces invade the coastal enclave.

Israeli officials are determined to respond decisively after Hamas killed more than 1,300 people in a surprise attack last Saturday. 

A ground invasion now appears to be imminent after Israel on Friday ordered the evacuation of more than one million people in Gaza. However, many people have nowhere to go, with Egypt loath to open its border to the south. Hamas has also urged residents not to flee. Israel has blockaded the territory for years and this week cut off its fuel and electricity in a siege that has spurred warnings of a humanitarian crisis. 

Israeli forces have spent days mopping up the remaining militants and launching mass air strikes on Gaza that killed more than 1,500 Palestinians. They have also conducted limited raids into Gaza.

Analysts say the delay so far of a ground invasion is likely part of Israel’s strategy to pressure Palestinian militants with rocket strikes and to prepare for all possible contingencies, while integrating some 300,000 reservists into combat duty.

Phil Andrew, a principal at the global conflict and crisis consulting firm Pax Group, said it was important to be “listening and collecting as much information as you can” and ensuring everything is in place for a rescue mission.

The trickiest part of the mission will be to locate and safely extract the hostages, who are likely hidden in various locations throughout Gaza and subject to the whims of various Hamas factions and individual leaders, rather than a strict military command structure.

Andrew warned that Israel was conducting a risky operation by telegraphing an intention to destroy Hamas while also trying to keep the hostages alive. That could ruin any communications channels needed for negotiations, he said, and Hamas has previously warned it will kill hostages if pressed.

Israeli operations into the Gaza Strip will also pose enormous risks for both its soldiers and Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said at a Friday press conference that soldiers will not shoot civilians on purpose as they attempt to destroy Hamas and take these phenomena out of Gaza and out of the Earth.

“Therefore we are asking all the civilians in Gaza City to go south of Gaza.  And the reason is that because we don’t want to harm them,” he said. “The camouflage of the terrorists is the civil population. Therefore we need to separate them. So those who want to save their life, please go south.”

Knox Thames, an international human rights advocate, said Israel “must avoid civilian casualties.”

“But Hamas often embeds its fire platforms and organizational nodes within civilian areas, using them as a shield, and when civilians die, using them as a propaganda message,” Thames said in an emailed statement.

Bilal Saab, director of the defense and security program at the Middle East Institute (MEI), said Israel has the capability to massively degrade Hamas’ military capabilities, but it was a question of how many casualties of Israeli soldiers and civilians Jerusalem is willing to sacrifice.

Saab said the stated goal of completely eradicating Hamas will be near impossible because Hamas has political support, making it even tougher to wipe out than a traditional terrorist group like ISIS.

“I understand the political logic behind it,” he said. “You want a message to your population that you are going to extract some heavy punishment on your opponent, but there’s no way they’re going to be able to defeat a deeply rooted organization.”

If Hezbollah is pulled into the war, that may prove even more problematic for Israel’s military than any trouble inside Gaza itself.

If Israel were forced to fight against two militant groups backed by Iran, it would be stretched much thinner and less able to concentrate on its main objective, eradicating Hamas.

Hezbollah is far better equipped and advanced than Hamas. The Lebanese militant group, an archenemy of Israel along with its creator Iran, has already begun firing rockets and artillery in nonstop tit-for-tat exchanges with Israel.

Saab said the risk of a front opening with Hezbollah was very real, but added Israel does not have much of a choice.

“If you are communicating to Hezbollah that you’re so worried about opening a second front that we’re not going to go after Hamas, that’s going to set a precedent for the future,” he explained. “They have to show that they are able to handle multiple fronts.”

What is behind recent turmoil in Lebanon?

Lebanon has witnessed a number of incidents over the past weeks that have made the headlines. Armed clashes broke out at Ain al-Hilweh, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Southern Lebanon, between the Fatah faction and extremist militants, which Prime Minister Najib Mikati blamed on outside forces and their repeated attempts to use Lebanon as a battleground for the settling of scores.

Between July 29 and August 02, explosions and gunshots shook the camp, resulting in at least 12 deaths, dozens of injuries, and the displacement of around 2,000 people.

There are different narratives about how the fighting started, but it made international headlines. It is unlike the killing of Palestinians by Israelis in the occupied West Bank or the besieged Gaza Strip. 

At the same time, the Saudi Arabian embassy in Beirut issued a call on its citizens to leave Lebanon and not to travel to areas where there are armed clashes. The embassy did not specify which areas to avoid. 

A statement stressed the importance of adhering to the Saudi travel ban to Lebanon. A few other Persian Gulf states also updated their travel advice for Lebanon. 

Some analysts also went on regional media predicting things to turn ugly in light of the Saudi warning. 

However, several days have passed, and nothing has happened, with the exception of damage incurred to the Lebanese tourism industry. 

Sources have told news outlets close to Hezbollah that the statements of the Persian Gulf embassies were merely political and related to the presidential election. 

A ceasefire is in place at the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp and appears to be holding. 

It's not the first time that fighting has erupted at the camp or other Palestinian refugee camps in Southern Lebanon. 

The Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, condemned the fighting during a speech delivered on the Day of Ashura, saying it only undermines the resistance against the Israeli enemy. 

During the speech, Sayyed Nasrallah also warned Israel against its occupation of Lebanese territory along the border with the occupied Palestinian territories. 

On Tuesday, the Lebanese army organized a field tour along the Blue Line for representatives of member states of the UN Security Council accredited to Lebanon in the presence of local, regional, and international media.

The tour included a presentation of the Blue Line (a border line between Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories published by the United Nations on June 07, 2000 for the purposes of determining whether Israel had fully withdrawn from Lebanon) with detailed information about the points of contention. 

Upon arrival, two Israeli gunboats violated Lebanese territorial waters in full view of the international delegation.

The delegation also moved to a Lebanese army station at Ras al-Naqouras adjacent to an Israeli watchtower, where surveillance cameras, jamming and listening devices, other espionage equipment as well as troops are holed up in it.  

Some army officers in the Fifth Brigade explained to the international diplomats the extent of the Israeli violations on Lebanese territory.

Then Brigadier General Mounir Shehadeh delivered a speech in which he affirmed, “Lebanon has reservations about these violations, including 13 border positions still occupied by the Zionist enemy," stressing that the border demarcation was completed in 1923 and that Lebanon will never accept any amendments. 

"These areas at the southern border have been recorded since the adoption of the Blue Line, and therefore they are a line of withdrawal (for Israeli occupation) and not a demarcation of the borders," General Shehadeh stated.

The demarcation of Lebanon’s border with Palestine took place in 1923. It was then enshrined in an armistice agreement in 1949.
Shehadeh stressed, “Lebanon does not care about what is said about a land demarcation, and that this word is not present in our dictionary as a Lebanese army and as a Lebanese government. We are talking about fixing the borders and showing the Lebanese borders, not demarcating the borders.”  

"When the Blue Line was drawn up in the year 2000 by the United Nations, it came in more than one place that does not coincide with international borders, and we called it a line of withdrawal, not a border line, and therefore we seek that the Blue Line becomes identical with what is identified in internationally."

He concluded by stressing, "We will preserve Lebanon's right to every grain of soil from its land, and this is what we are doing."

Israel has called on Lebanon via international mediators to remove two tents set up by Hezbollah in the Sheba'a Farm area. Beirut's response was that the two tents are located on Lebanese territory.

Tensions have escalated further recently after Israel re-occupied northern Ghajar village, southeast Lebanon. 

Israeli media reports have said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet his top military commanders to study the situation. 

During his Ashura speech, Nasrallah issued a warning to Israeli political and military leaders saying, "Be careful of any stupidity. The resistance in Lebanon will not step back from its duty. It is ready for any option, danger, or stupidity."

He pointed out, "Israel speaks of Hezbollah threats on the border when the regime has the nerve to occupy our territory."

In the last Israeli war against Lebanon in July 2006, the regime acknowledged its defeat, as it was taken aback by the strength of Hezbollah's power. 

According to experts, the Lebanese resistance has between 100,000 to 150,000 soldiers along with a wide array of powerful missiles and other sophisticated weapons it has kept secret. 

Experts believe that if Israel were to wage a war against Lebanon today, Hezbollah is capable of capturing the entire Galilee region and perhaps more (northern occupied Palestinian territories) within the first two to three days of the war. 

That is one-third of the entire occupied Palestinian territories. 

Many things have changed since July 2006. Not only has Hezbollah become more powerful, but the region has changed. 

There is a possibility that any Israeli war on Lebanon would draw in Iraq’s Hashd al-Sha'abi, Yemen's Ansarullah as well as the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip and the newly formed resistance in the occupied West Bank. Syria would also find a good opportunity to liberate the Golan Heights and attack from that direction.

Israel can assassinate resistance figures from the air. But with the introduction of drones on the battlefield, the regime's air superiority is no longer efficient, according to experts. 

When it comes to land combat, the regime has proven its cowardness, experts say. 

Israel can launch a war against Lebanon's Hezbollah, but as Sayyed Nasrallah noted, it would be "stupid" to do so.
 

Khamenei representative meets Nasrallah

Seyed Hassan Ameli, the representative of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution to Ardebil Province, traveled to Lebanon and met with the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah. 

Ayatollah Ameli was accompanied by a group of clerics who are members of the Assembly of Experts. 

Iran’s Ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Ameli, also attended the meeting, according to Tasnim. 

In the meeting, the historical relations between the two brotherly countries were discussed. 

Ayatollah Ameli has been rising to prominence in recent years as a result of tensions between Iran and the Republic of Azerbaijani over Israel’s presence in the South Caucasus nation. Ameli has also been at the center of Tehran’s messaging efforts to Baku over the latter’s relations with Israel. 

The Israeli Ambassador to the Republic of Azerbaijan, George Deek, has caused several uproars by taking controversial actions such as visiting the Iran-Azerbaijan border or alluding to Iran’s Azeri population.

Ayatollah Ameli responded in kind, visiting the Israel-Lebanon border.  In mid-July, Ayatollah Ameli, an ethnic Azeri, posed for a photo right on the Lebanon-Israel border.

“I greeted the martyrs of the Resistance by coming to an Israeli border area that is overlooking a settlement in the occupied territories,” he said. 

He also said that his move was a response to the Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan. “The Israeli ambassador to Azerbaijan came close to our borders to tell us that ‘we’ve come very close to you.’

For me, that was difficult to tolerate. So, on my trip to Lebanon, I went to Maroun al-Ras and stood near the border area overlooking a Zionist settlement. And I cursed the killer of the Palestinians who has been shedding Muslims’ blood for 75 years,” Ayatollah Ameli said in a tweet. 

Later, when he came back to Ardebil, Ayatollah Ameli said he visited the Lebanon-Israel border so that the Israeli ambassadors to Azerbaijan know that his action does not go unanswered. 

 

 

Syria claims intercepting Israeli missile attack

Syria claimed on Sunday its air defences intercepted what it called an Israeli missile strike across central parts of the country and downed most of the missiles.

An army statement said missiles that flew over parts of Lebanon's capital Beirut hit locations in the vicinity of the city of Homs, resulting only in material damage.

An Israeli military spokesman said Israeli warplanes targeted a Syrian air defence battery from which an anti-aircraft missile was launched towards Israel.

The warplanes also attacked other targets in the area, while no casualties were reported from the Syrian missile that exploded in mid-air, said the spokesman, Avichay Adraee.

Israel has in recent months intensified strikes on Syrian airports and air bases to disrupt Iran's increasing use of aerial supply lines to deliver arms to allies in Syria and Lebanon, including Lebanon's Hezbolla.

The Israeli strikes are part of an escalation of what has been a low-intensity conflict continuing for years with a goal of slowing Iran's growing entrenchment in Syria, Israeli military experts say.

Tehran's influence has grown in Syria since it began supporting President Bashar al-Assad in the civil war that started in 2011.

Fighters allied to Iran, including Hezbollah, now hold sway in areas in eastern, southern and northwestern Syria and in several suburbs around the capital.

 

 

 

 

Lebanon: Failure to elect new president deepens crisis

Lebanon plunged deeper into crisis on Wednesday when Hezbollah and its allies thwarted a bid by their rivals to elect a top IMF official as president, sharpening sectarian tensions and underlining the dim hopes for reviving the crumbling state.

Four years since Lebanon slid into a financial meltdown that marks its worst crisis since the 1975-90 civil war, parliament failed for the 12th time to elect someone to fill the post reserved for a Maronite Christian under the country's sectarian system.

Lawmakers from the Iran-backed armed Shi'ite group Hezbollah and allies including the Shi'ite Amal Movement withdrew from the session to obstruct a bid by the main Christian parties to elect IMF official Jihad Azour.

The standoff has opened up a sectarian faultline, with one of Hezbollah's main Christian allies - Gebran Bassil - lining up behind the bid to elect Azour, alongside anti-Hezbollah Christian factions.

Azour, the IMF's Middle East Director and an ex-finance minister, won the support of 59 of parliament's 128 lawmakers in an initial vote, short of the two-thirds needed to win in the first round. Suleiman Frangieh, backed by Hezbollah and its allies, got 51 votes.

Hezbollah and its allies then withdrew, denying the two-thirds quorum required for a second round of voting in which a candidate can win with the support of 65 lawmakers.

It leaves Lebanon with no immediate prospect of filling the presidency, which has been vacant since the term of the Hezbollah-allied President Michel Aoun ended in October last year.

Hezbollah, which says it is exercising its constitutional rights, is backing its close Christian ally Frangieh, a friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who strongly supports Hezbollah's right to possess weapons.

Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist group by the United States, has unleashed fierce rhetoric in their campaign against Azour, describing him as a candidate of confrontation.

Lebanon's Shi'ite Mufti Sheikh Ahmad Qabalan dialled up the attacks on Sunday against Azour without naming him, accusing him of being backed by Israel and saying "a president with an American stamp will not be allowed".

Azour, 57, has said he wants to build national unity and implement reforms in a country mired in its deepest crisis since its 1975-90 civil war.

Azour served as finance minister from 2005 to 2008, a period of political conflict pitting a government backed by the West and Saudi Arabia against opponents aligned with Damascus and led by Hezbollah.

He also enjoyed the support of Lebanon's main Druze faction, the Progressive Socialist Party led by the Jumblatt family, and some Sunni lawmakers.

Lebanon plunging into constitutional chaos

Outgoing Lebanese President Michel Aoun told Reuters on Saturday his nation could be sliding into constitutional chaos, with an unprecedented situation of having no one in line to succeed him and a cabinet that is operating in a caretaker capacity.

Aoun is set to leave the presidential palace on Sunday, a day before his six-year term ends, but four sessions in the nation's fractured parliament have failed to reach consensus on a candidate to succeed him.

Aoun said in an interview an 11th-hour political move to address the constitutional crisis might be possible, but added there is no final decision on what that could involve.

Aoun's presidency is inextricably linked in the minds of many Lebanese to their country's worst days since the 1975-1990 civil war, with the financial crisis that began in 2019 and the deadly Beirut port blast of 2020.

In the days after the blast, Aoun said he had received a report about the roughly 2,700 tons of ammonium nitrate stored at the port of Beirut weeks before they detonated and killed some 220 people.

Aoun's son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who was put on a sanctions list by the United States in 2020 for alleged corruption, has presidential ambitions, according to political sources.

Bassil has denied the allegations of corruption, and Aoun said on Saturday the sanctions would not stop Bassil from eventually being a presidential candidate.

Once he's elected president, the sanctions will go away, Aoun said, without elaborating.

In his final week as President, Aoun signed a US-brokered deal delineating Lebanon's southern maritime border with Israel - a modest diplomatic breakthrough that would allow both countries to extract natural gas from maritime deposits.

He said powerful Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, which sent unarmed drones over Israel and threatened to attack its offshore rigs multiple times, had served as a deterrent that had helped keep the negotiations going in Lebanon's favour.

"It wasn't coordinated (with the government). It was an initiative taken by Hezbollah and it was useful," Aoun said, adding that the Lebanese army "had no role" in this regard.

He said the deal paved the way for gas discoveries that could be Lebanon's last chance at recovering from a three-year financial meltdown that has cost the currency 95% of its value and pushed 80% of the population into poverty.

Lebanon has otherwise made slow progress on a checklist of reforms required to gain access to US$3 billion in financing from the International Monetary Fund.

Aoun said he would stay involved in politics in Lebanon even after he leaves office, particularly to fight Central Bank governor Riad Salameh, one of the president's main political adversaries.

Salameh is being investigated in Lebanon and at least five countries abroad on charges of corruption and embezzlement of public funds, charges he denies.

 

 

 

 

Israel claims curbing Iran’s ability to transfer weapons to Syria

The Israeli military has destroyed about 90% of Iran's military infrastructure and attempts to entrench itself - with Hezbollah - in Syria, top officials in the defense establishment claimed over the weekend.

According to the officials, Israel has in recent years succeeded in almost completely curbing Iran's ability to transfer weapons to Syria, to manufacture weapons on the country's soil and to establish a base in it with pro-Iranian forces.

According to the sources, the plan of the former commander of the Iranian Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by the Americans in 2020, has failed due to the IDF’s continued air campaign against the forces in Syria.

The last alleged attack attributed to Israel in Syria was Friday when local media reported that the IDF attacked near the airport in Damascus after about a month of relative silence.

The sources said that despite the tension between Israel and Russia – which recently threatened Jerusalem not to transfer arms to Ukraine - the deconfliction mechanism to prevent Russian-Israeli friction in Syria is working as usual.

Periods without attacks, the sources said, are usually the result of an Iranian decision to suspend the smuggling of weapons to Syria, in order to try and find a new route to trick Israel.

The security officials emphasized that the IDF severely damaged Iran's smuggling routes from the sea, from the air and even from the land from Iran to Syria.

As a result of the attacks, the ability of the Syrian army to produce weapons and ammunition has also been damaged since the Iranians and Hezbollah used the same factories for the production of their weapons.

The focus of the attacks in recent years has also been to stop the smuggling of components for CERS – the Centre D’Etudes et de Recherches Scientifiques (CERS) in Masyaf that is used by Iran to produce advanced missiles and weapons for its proxies.

Along with this, the assessment in Israel is that Syrian President Bashar Assad has reduced the activity of Iran and Hezbollah in his country, with an emphasis on the Syrian Golan Heights and the south of the country.

According to sources in Israel, Assad has realized that in the coming years he will not be able to regain territories occupied by the Kurds, including the Turks, and instead focuses his power on trying to restore stability to the major cities with an emphasis on Damascus and the region including the coastline.

 

United States brokering Israel-Lebanon deal

The Biden administration is on the verge of a significant breakthrough in Middle East relations as it quietly pursues an agreement between Israel and Lebanon on territorial maritime borders.

The negotiations appear to be closing in on the finish line amid intensive negotiations between US, Israeli and Lebanese officials that took place last week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. 

The administration has taken pains to downplay the significance of the potential agreement — concerned that anything that appears to look like normalization between Israel and Lebanon would set off a catastrophic fight with Hezbollah, which has an estimated 150,000 missiles positioned on Israel’s northern border.

But if successful, an agreement between Lebanon and Israel — with Beirut implicitly recognizing Israel’s legitimacy while the two sides are at war — would mark a tremendous victory for the Biden administration’s use of diplomacy to advance Middle East stability. 

“It would be a very significant win for the Biden administration, and frankly it would be a significant win for regional stability and de-escalation of tensions,” said Mona Yacoubian, a senior adviser in the Middle East and North Africa Center at the US Institute of Peace. 

The negotiations are being led by ​​Amos Hochstein, Special Presidential Coordinator for International Energy. He launched mediations between Israel and Lebanon in mid-October, following up on talks that were initiated during the former Trump administration in 2020. 

The talks have gained little attention, in part because of greater world crises such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But this also reflects an effort on the part of the administration to maintain a low profile. 

“I think this is being managed quite well on the part of the administration and Amos Hochstein in particular,” Yacoubian said.

“He’s really been very diligent in his shuttle diplomacy. I think he’s demonstrating, really, and he’s embodying what the hard work of diplomacy looks like and, if there is a deal, what it can yield.” 

The agreement is expected to draw a border between Israel and Lebanon in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and demarcate claims that both Beirut and Jerusalem identify as their exclusive economic zone. It would sort out how the two nations could benefit from exploration of the Karish natural gas field.

Lebanese officials are signaling major progress in reaching a deal. Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati said during his speech at the General Assembly that “we have achieved tangible progress which we hope will reach its aspired conclusions soon.”

Part of the progress is a consensus between Israel and Lebanon on the benefits of resolving the maritime boundary. Israel wants to avoid conflict with Lebanon and generally advance its relations in the region, and Lebanon is in dire need of any economic benefit that would come from being able to explore gas extraction in this part of the Mediterranean Sea. 

While the agreement on the maritime boundary is unlikely to yield immediate economic benefits for Lebanon, which is viewed as being in a crisis economic state, it is viewed as a positive development. 

Energean, the Greek-British energy company that holds a license to develop the Karish gas field, said in a September press release, “It remains on track to deliver first gas from the Karish development project within weeks.”

The development of the fields could help European countries wean themselves off Russian natural gas.

“As Europeans seek substitutes for Russian energy sources, the eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly important in that regard,” Yacoubian said. 

Hezbollah that controls southern Lebanon and holds immense power in the country, has over the last few weeks increased the number of its threatening statements against Israel over the border negotiations and gas extraction. 

Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah said last week, “We are following up on the negotiations and all our eyes are on Karish and our missiles are locked on Karish.” He warned Israel against extracting gas in the absence of an agreement with Lebanon. 

“The red line to us is that there should not be extraction from Karish,” he said, in televised remarks reported by the Naharnet news site. 

A spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid responded in a statement that gas extraction is not connected to the US-mediated negotiations. 

“Israel believes that it is both possible and necessary to reach an agreement on a maritime line between Lebanon and Israel. … The production of gas from the Karish rig is not connected to these negotiations, and the production of gas from the rig will commence without delay, as soon as it is possible,” the statement read.

In a briefing with reporters on Wednesday in New York, Lapid said, “Israel is strong and knows how to defend itself” if an agreement is not reached with Lebanon addressing Israel’s “security, diplomatic and economic needs,” Axios reported. 

Yacoubian, of the Institute of Peace, said that Nasrallah’s threats appear to be “theater.” 

“It’s a lot of saber rattling, but that might be because it’s a prelude to a negotiated agreement,” she said. 

“In other words, saber rattling as a way of Hezbollah establishing itself as an actor working towards Lebanon’s benefit — so that when this deal comes, they shape their role in that way, that it was partly their pressure, their strong line on defending Lebanon’s interests that helped get Lebanon a deal.”

Hawkish regional watchers believe Nasrallah’s threats are laying the groundwork for an outbreak of conflict. Israel views Hezbollah as one of its greatest security threats and an arm of Iran’s greater ambitions to attack the Jewish state.

“The Iranians, in their stomach, are trying to take revenge against Israel,” said Eitan Dangot, President of the Association of Oil and Gas Exploration Industries in Israel and former Chief of the Israel Home Front Command. 

“Hezbollah is not working for the defense of Lebanon; Iran is giving it the green light to open its missile storage on Israel.”

Hezbollah’s determined threats against Israel are a point the Israel Defense Forces constantly reinforce to the world. The IDF has destroyed, but preserved, at least half a dozen Hezbollah tunnels dug under Israel’s northern border.

They regularly bring international visitors to tour the tunnels, marching them 80 meters, or more than 260 feet, underground to view the sophisticated engineering needed to burrow through solid bedrock and demonstrate what they say is Hezbollah’s determination to wage war on Israel.

US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield visited the tunnels in November, and the IDF tweeted a photo of a delegation of ambassadors and diplomats visiting the tunnels in March.  

‏”Seeing the tunnel with your own eyes changes your perception completely. Only then can you truly understand the lengths Hezbollah goes to in order to harm Israeli civilians,” Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, IDF International spokesperson, told The Hill. 

 

 

Can election in Lebanon restore peace and stability in the country?

In Lebanon polling is being held today (Sunday) and the country’s future could depend on a high turnout among the diasporas and voting changes in the country. However, the Hezbollah stranglehold on the country is expected to remain.

Israel terms this Catch-22 that it has been facing for years. It wants to Lebanon to be stable and successful. It accuses Hezbollah of siphoning off resources to build up its arsenal. Israel believes, if Lebanon is weakened, Hezbollah wins by forcing Lebanese to flee the country as it continues to grow its Iranian-financed tentacles.

According to reports more than 100,000 Lebanese living abroad have already cast ballots for the parliamentary election, many backing political newcomers after the worst crisis since Lebanon’s 1975-90 civil war led to widespread poverty and a wave of emigration. Sunday’s election would be the first for the 128-member legislature since mass protests in October 2019 against political elites widely seen as responsible for decades of corruption and mismanagement.

The western media says, “Once a successful country seen as a stable, prosperous, diverse and beautiful global destination for tourists and intellectuals has long fallen into religious extremism and chaos”.

It is often alleged that Hezbollah has benefited from the chaos. When Saudi Arabia and Sunni Arab powers grew concerned about the Iranian-backed Shi’ite extremist movement, Lebanon began to look like it could fall into sectarian conflict similar to Iraq.

Later Riyadh appeared to withdraw support. Saudi Arabia had helped guarantee peace in the country after the Civil War of the 1970s and 1980s. However, the demographic-sectarian balance that underpins politics in Lebanon has been hijacked.

Western media openly says that Hezbollah not only uses Lebanon as a launching pad for threats against Israel; it also threatens the entire region. Yet Hezbollah does not have a way to solely control the parliament in Lebanon, and the sectarian voting system means it must ally with Christian and Druze parties. It has successfully done so in the past, controlling appointments to the presidency and even coming to control ministries.

The biggest tragedy is that Lebanon faces a huge financial crisis. Reports say that 80% of Lebanese are already in living poverty, and the Lebanese currency is losing value. This is likely, in part, the fault of the country’s elites who keep their money abroad.

Western media also plays mantra that the pandemic, inflation and the new crisis in Ukraine that has disrupted some global food supplies will add to the woes of the small country. Consider also that supply chain issues related to China mean that Lebanon will suffer even more. Endless and tough lockdowns in places like Shanghai are spreading global chaos. Lebanon was already on the brink. What might happen next?

Some media reports see Lebanon as being a victim of rivalries in the region. This posits that actors like Iran prey on Lebanon because they want to harm Israel. However the reality is much more complex. Iran uses Lebanon as an outlet to the Mediterranean, and Tehran is now involved via militias in the drug trade from Syria that threatens Jordan and the Gulf.

According to the western media, Lebanon is part of the Iranian axis, even though many Lebanese don’t approve of this hijacking. The UN has failed to rein in Hezbollah and enforce demands that its illegal weapons do not percolate around the country, yet Hezbollah continues to build up an arsenal.

A recent video appeared to show a new anti-ship missile in Hezbollah’s hands. Israel recently upgraded and received new naval platforms, such as the Sa’ar 6. This will matter in any future conflict with the armed Lebanese terror group.

Hezbollah also slammed US mediator Amos Hochstein recently, proclaiming in a video that it did not want to meet with any more “Steins,” a thinly veiled antisemitic reference that sought to highlight Hochstein’s Jewish background. With this language, it is hard to be optimistic about any future negotiations with Lebanon that might settle the maritime boundary and also enable peace and stability.

The US mantra is that Lebanese should work closely with the US and partners in the region to make sure Lebanon remains stable, regardless of the outcome of the election.

 

 

Who is responsible for ongoing turmoil in Lebanon?

“Saudi Arabia and the United States are exerting economic pressure on Lebanon to isolate Hezbollah” says Jamal Wakim, a professor at the Lebanese University (LU). “Saudi Arabia believes that exerting pressure on the Lebanese economy would help them achieve their political objective by isolating Hezbollah,” Wakim tells the Tehran Times.

“As the US could not get rid of Hezbollah militarily, it thought of doing so by exerting economic pressure on the Lebanese economy in order to incite the whole population against Hezbollah,” he adds.

Lebanon is going through a financial crisis that the World Bank says could rank among the world’s three worst since the mid-1800s in terms of its effect on living standards.

According to Jamal Wakim, after the Civil War in Lebanon, country’s economy has become solely dependent on the tertiary sector and the financial sector and on marginalizing the productive sectors, i.e. agriculture and industry. 
As the US could not get rid of Hezbollah militarily, it thought of doing so by exerting economic pressure on the Lebanese economy in order to incite the whole population against Hezbollah. By controlling the Lebanese financial system, the US was able to dry it off, leading the whole economy to collapse.

Rafiq al-Hariri governments between 1992 and 2004 were the ones that led to the restructuring of the economy to fit the interests of the financial and tertiary sectors. After his assassination, the class which benefited from the al-Hariri policies continued the policies that led to the current crisis. 

Saudi Arabia wants to exert pressure on Hezbollah so they thought that exerting pressure on the Lebanese economy would help them achieve their political objective by isolating Hezbollah. 

The incumbent government is not able to tackle the economic problem because the Prime Minister and the government members represent the interests of the political-financial class that rules the country and whose interests lay in continuing the previous policies that protect the interests of the financial capitalist class. 

To find a sustainable solution to Lebanese malice it is necessary to understand the main areas of economic cooperation between Iran and Lebanon. It is too bad that there are no areas of cooperation between Lebanon and Iran, because Lebanon is under full Western control. 

While Lebanon is still struggling to get over the ramifications of a deadly 2020 blast at Beirut Port, some people on Capitol Hill are busy drawing up plans to further exacerbate the situation in the country.

Lebanon is in bad shape economically and its people are grappling with day-to-day hardships to make ends meet regardless of their religion or political persuasions. However, this does not seem enough for some the US congressmen to refrain from fanning the flames of political divisions in Lebanon at a delicate moment.

Ever since the 2020 destructive explosion devastated the port of Beirut and the surrounding area, the economic situation in Lebanon has been steadily deteriorating. The country’s currency has significantly lost its value against the US dollar. Many gas stations and power stations ran out of fuel needed to power Lebanese cars and light homes.

The explosion led to a political vacuum in Lebanon after Hassan Diab, who assumed premiership in late 2019 by virtue of consensus among Lebanon’s main religiopolitical factions including Hezbollah, resigned. Diab remained in power as caretaker Prime Minister for about 13 months, highlighting the challenges of forming government in a country where political factions are divided along sectarian lines and pulling in different directions. Diab sought to strike a balance and render services to the Lebanese people without prioritizing foreign pressure to undermine certain groups that are part and parcel of Lebanon’s political system. 

Saad Hariri sought to form a government but he was given the cold shoulder due to a perception in some regional and transregional countries that he was unable to undertake reforms long demanded by these countries. And the main target of reforms is Hezbollah. In other words, Hariri was under pressure to form a government bent on weakening Hezbollah. Hariri simply withdrew and then went into self-exile.  

The external pressures continued unabated even after Lebanese leaders across the political spectrum formed a new government led by veteran politician Najib Mikati. 

Mikati has been trying to improve the economic situation in the country. But he is facing daunting challenges in this regard. Because Lebanon is resource-poor and relies, to large extent, on foreign aid to shore up its economy. To overcome economic woes, Lebanon needs foreign loans. The Mikati administration has formally begun negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to reportedly extend US$4 billion loan. 

The loan is part of a broader reform plan that aims to improve the economic situation. But it has been conditioned on the Lebanese government undertaking painful economic reforms and more importantly making a pledge to undermine Hezbollah.

The Tehran Times has learned that Senator James Lankford is spearheading efforts at the US Congress to draw up some legislation on the situation in Lebanon that would direct the US administration to refrain from supporting IMF assistance until needed reforms are made. 

The proposed bill also directs the US to support incremental IMF assistance to Lebanon once reforms are made. 

In addition, the bill calls on the US to impose sanctions on Lebanese leaders thought to be obstructing reforms. 

It goes without saying that reforms here mean measures against Hezbollah, which has long been in the crosshairs of the US. On the surface, the bill seeks to ensure stability in Lebanon, but deep down, it may well end up destabilizing Lebanon by pitting the Lebanese against each other.

The draft prepared by Senator Lankford lays out an array of measures to be taken by the US administration with regards to Lebanon.

 

If Hezbollah not, who else is responsible for Beirut port explosion?

A new report by Rai Al-Youm about the investigations into Beirut port explosion reveals that a bank account based in a Gulf capital and its main branch in Switzerland financed the ship and personalities affiliated with the future introduced nitrates without Hariri’s knowledge. 

The results of the port’s investigations will not be published as it is part of the black box of the war in Syria.

The investigation into the last year’s explosion in Beirut port is still kept secret and the Lebanese judicial authorities have been keen not to publish anything about this investigation. The investigation is supposed to answer the questions that preoccupied Lebanese public opinion since the first day of Beirut’s shaking and destruction.

There are two important questions, 1) who brought the ammonium nitrate to the port of Beirut? Who owned the ship? 

Since the explosion, the Secretary General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah has demanded the judicial investigator in three letters to publish the results of the technical investigation to the Lebanese public opinion. He has said to the judge, “If you do not want to publish the investigation to the public opinion, at least gather the families of the port victims and tell them how their sons were martyred.” 

 But those demands from Hassan Nasrallah did not resonate and the investigation results were kept secret. The current investigative judge Tariq Al-Bitar, as the former judge Fadi Sawan preceded him, followed up the part related to job negligence in the explosion without details of what preceded the shipment.

The first part, Job neglect, required a request to listen and investigate several parliamentarians, military commanders and general managers that caused split in Lebanon, accusing the judge of discretion in summoning and politicization. Still, the judge concentrated on ministers who held the position in the period between the ship’s arrival and the explosion.

He also chose the former Prime Minister Hassan Diab without summoning previous prime ministers who successively held the position during the presence of nitrates inside the port. These are questions and observations made by political parties and legal figures that Judge Bitar did not answer until now.

According to Rai Al-Youm sources, the investigation answers these questions regarding who brought the ship to Lebanon and for whom? The authorities talk about part of the investigations with broad headings without going into details.

The sources report that the shipment was paid for from a bank account based in an Arabian state in the Persian Gulf, with the main branch in Switzerland. The shipment was brought in by some figures in the Future Movement, without the knowledge of Saad Hariri.

The sources suggested that the nitrates were stored in the port and were due to transport into Syrian territory to benefit terrorist groups stationed on the Syrian-Lebanese border. At that time, some of the materials remained neglected in ward No. 12 in the port.

It appears that the ship, its owners, and the shipment route were included within the “black box” of the war in Syria, which was forbidden with strict international and regional support, not to disclose or publish facts of the Syrian conflict. Including the parties involved in it, how weapons and terrorists transferred, and their financing for that. 

 According to Rai Al-Youm, there is not a single evidence against Hezbollah in the investigations and that the accountability framework will be limited to those directly responsible for negligence. Information indicates that the judge was heading to close the file and issue the indictment, but the prosecution insisted on listening to former President Michel Suleiman, and former Prime Minister Tammam Salam, before giving the decision.

The investigation into the port explosion will likely reach a clear conclusion for public opinion and legal accountability, unlike other files that remain pending without conclusions.

 

Hassan Nasrallah Messiah for Lebanese

In the recent past Lebanon has faced multiple domestic crises. At present one of the biggest challenges facing the country is the unprecedented energy crisis that is literally suffocating a nation struggling to keep the light on. 

This crisis got worse, on the verge of reaching a point where hospitals, shops, bakeries, etc. cannot function because of a lack of fuel. Lebanon was heading towards the unknown. 

Hezbollah devised a plan to alleviate the crisis, while preventing any foreign interference or trouble for Lebanon. 

After careful consideration, Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah and other high ranking officials in the movement decided to purchase oil from the Islamic Republic of Iran and bring the oil tankers to Lebanon itself. 

Hezbollah chief said, after being told of possible sanctions or other measures by the United States that could hurt the government if the tankers docked in Lebanon; it decided to dock the first vessel in neighboring Syria and take the cargo by land across Lebanese-Syrian border crossing. 

Nasrallah extended his gratitude to the Syrian government for helping coordinate the logistics of importing this vital commodity. He thanked the Syrian government for understanding the situation of Lebanon and the dangers of Lebanese and Syrian enemies in trying to harm Damascus for the assistance it provided.

The vessel was expected to dock at Syrian seaport by Sunday and the process of unloading and dispatching fuel to Lebanon was has to be completed by Thursday. Hezbollah said, this is the first of many ships to bring oil from Iran to Lebanon.

According to Nasrallah, the negative statements were the following and he noted how they ended up in dustbin of history. 

One: The announcement of importing oil from Iran was just a stunt. However, the oil has arrived.

Two: Those who said the operation will fail because Iran itself has problems exporting gasoline and diesel. 

Three: Those who stated Israel will prevent the tanker from reaching Lebanon or Syria, especially because Hezbollah announced the move publicly on the day of Ashura. It wasn’t a secret operation.

Nasrallah believes it's unfortunate that some had hoped Israel would prevent the ship from reaching Lebanon. 

He highlighted that the 2006 war which created a security equation with Israel is what prevented the regime from stopping the fuel from arriving. This is despite the fact that Tel Aviv is very well aware the arrival of the fuel would increase Hezbollah’s popularity even more, something Israel has, for decades, tried to prevent.

Four: Those who said America will prevent this operation. Nasrallah noted the US knew any action would lead to a reaction “from a certain party”.

The Hezbollah chief said, the US only knows sanctions, tried to pressure Lebanese officials and when that did not work, the US embassy in Beirut presented an alternative plan.

The US plan had already been widely ridiculed among Lebanese commentators and analysts. 

Those who said the import of oil would cause problems for the new government and this never happened.

Five: Finally, those who said this was a sectarian move and the energy would only be distributed to Hezbollah strongholds in Southern Lebanon. Nasrallah said, oil would be sent to every region of Lebanon.

In the upcoming days, the second ship will dock in Syria and will also contain diesel.

A third ship has been loaded with gasoline and the paperwork has been completed for it to sail. The fourth tanker will contain diesel.

The fourth ship will contain diesel because it will arrive at a time when some areas of Lebanon get cold and more diesel is needed than gasoline. 

The Hezbollah chief reiterated the movement is not after trade and profit or competing with energy companies. The initiative is simply adding to a product short in supply. 

Nasrallah studied the distribution process from a humanitarian point of view and came up with the following.

A months’ worth of supply will be offered, free of charge, to government-run hospitals, centers that care for the elderly and vulnerable, every facility that cares for orphans, water facilities in poorer provinces, fire stations, the Lebanese Red Cross. 

The reality of this humanitarian mission cannot be emphasized enough when Hezbollah says it is offering the diesel to the above free of charge. 

The second list will be sold, but also in terms of priority, to those that need the energy most and at a reasonable price whereby other energy supplier’s businesses are not affected. 

Private hospitals, pharmaceutical manufacturers, mills, bakeries selling bread, companies purchasing, storing and selling vital food products, food manufacturers, and agricultural companies remain top priority. Among those also considered high-priority, that will be offered the diesel, are electricity companies who provide generators to help people with power outages. 

According to the Hezbollah Chief, the oil will not be sold to individuals, but he did leave this door open when the suffering among the priority lists is gone. 

A Lebanese company has been chosen to assist and Hezbollah says this company has been chosen because it is suffering under US sanctions. 

Nasrallah added this commodity is for all Lebanese, regardless of faith or political allegiance. It will be sent to every province in the country. 

Every effort will be done to prevent the oil from entering the black market “because the black market has already profited significantly”.

Hezbollah says this operation will hopefully break the black market, which is selling oil at unreasonable prices and hurting ordinary Lebanese waiting in line for hours. 

Hezbollah said, it will not consider the import costs of the oil tankers when it sells the oil. The movement says it will bear responsibility for these costs and says it doesn’t want to make a profit.

The Hezbollah Chief said, the movement wants this initiative to be considered as a gift to Lebanese people from the Islamic Republic of Iran and from Hezbollah. 

Nasrallah said, Hezbollah won’t use the dollar to sell any of the oil imports. Any fuel sold will be done using the Lebanese Lira. 

Hezbollah could have imported a flotilla of oil tankers and not begin with one ship. He pointed out this would have led to extensive media speculation about the whereabouts of the ships and when they will arrive; something that would have boosted Hezbollah’s popularity. 

The Hezbollah chief said, “We could have done that with the first tanker”. However, the moment chose to keep a low profile because it didn’t want to frighten the Lebanese people, especially when there are officials and enemies scaremongering the public. 

Hezbollah’s goal is easing the suffering of the people, serving the Lebanese nothing more, nothing less.