What after pushing Iran out of oil market?

Many analysts believe that the decision of US President, Donald Trump to end the exemptions regarding buying Iranian crude oil is a double-edged sword. On one hand, he doesn’t want oil prices to go up and on the other hand he is adamant at pushing Iran out of oil market. It appears that like past; this time too, the US would succeed in luring Saudi Arabia to exploit the situation to its benefit. It is also believed that stringent sanctions on Iran can take both Saudi Arabia and the oil market into the unchartered waters. To read details click http://www.pakistaneconomist.com/2019/04/29/what-after-pushing-iran-out-of-oil-market/

United States adamant at imposing war on Iran

According to a Reuters report, Chief of US Central Command, General Kenneth McKenzie has said that the United States would deploy the necessary resources to counter any dangerous actions by Iran.

“We’re gonna continue to reach out to our partners and friends in the region to ensure that we make common cause against the threat of Iran,” said McKenzie currently on an official visit to the Gulf region.

“I believe we’ll have the resources necessary to deter Iran from taking actions that will be dangerous. We will be able to respond effectively,” warned McKenzie.

Tensions between Tehran and Washington have risen since the Trump administration last year withdrew from an international nuclear deal with Iran and began ratcheting up sanctions.

Earlier this month, the United States blacklisted Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards.

Washington has also demanded buyers of Iranian oil to stop purchases by May or face sanctions, ending six months of waivers which allowed Iran’s eight biggest buyers, most of them in Asia, to continue importing limited volumes.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and some senior military commanders have threatened to disrupt oil shipments from Gulf countries if Washington tries to strangle Tehran oil exports.

McKenzie also said he was confident that the U.S. is going to have “a long term presence in Iraq, focused on the counter-terror mission.”

On withdrawal of troops, McKenzie also said a reduction of US troops in Syria would be done cautiously. “On the long term, we’re gonna reduce our forces in Syria, we recognize that, that’s the guidance in which we are operating. That will be something that we will look at very carefully as we go forward,” the general said.

President Donald Trump had ordered withdrawal of the US troops Syria in December after claiming they (US troops) had defeated Islamic State militants in Syria. In February, a senior administration official said the United States will leave about 400 US troops split between two different regions of Syria.

Iran terms 1980 Tabas Desert operation 'historic US failure'

On 25th April, Iran marked 39th anniversary of a failed US military operation to free its embassy staff held in Tehran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The military operation on April 25, 1980, had proved a fiasco for Washington, at that time Jimmy Carter was president of the United States. Iran commemorates the event every year as a symbol of the failure of US plots against the Islamic Republic.

A sandstorm hit and brought down the group of US military aircrafts in the Tabas Desert, killing eight American servicemen and resulting in the failure of the mission. Inspections showed a helicopter crashed into a C-130 Hercules transport plane as five other choppers were stranded in the storm. The units involved in the operation were from the US Air Force, Army, Navy and Marine Corps.

President Rouhani pointed to Washington’s repeated failures against Iran over the past four decades, saying the historic US failure in Tabas was a divine miracle. He also said, “The Tabas incident was a great miracle from God which led to the failure of the Americans’ complicated military plot”.

“Every day over the last 40 years, the U.S. officials have been hatching a new plot against the Iranian people, but they have always failed and will fail again,” he stressed.

During the takeover of the embassy, documents were discovered that proved some of the American embassy staff had been working with US intelligence agencies, meaning they were spies. Some 52 Americans were held in Tehran for 444 days, but later released unharmed.

US likely to face ultimate defeat in Venezuela

Over the years, many of US analysts, politicians, academicians and media pundits have been predicting the imminent fall, overthrow, defeat and replacement of the Venezuelan government. They have been proven wrong on almost all the counts. In fact, most of the US induced regime change efforts have strengthened the support for the Chavez – Maduro government.

A more recent example is the proclamation of the US President that his country was prepared to invade Venezuela. His threat aroused massive popular resistance in defense of national independence, even among discontented sections of t population. Analysts say Venezuela has become the whirlpool of a global struggle which pits the imperial aspirations of Washington against an embattled Venezuela intent on defending its own. A question being asked, why Washington has failed?

The US assault on Venezuela’s state and society includes:

(a)  A military coup in 2002

(b)  A lockout by the executives of the Venezuelan oil company

(c)  The exercise of US political pressure via clients and allies in Europe, South and North America

(d)  Escalating economic sanctions between 2013 – 2019

(e)  Street violence during 2013 – 2019

(f)  Sabotage of the entire electrical system between 2017 -2019

(g)  Hoarding of goods via corporations and distributors from 2014 – 2019

(h)  Subversion of military and civilian institutions 2002 – 2019

(i)  Regional alliances to expel Venezuelan membership from regional organizations

(j)  Economic sanctions accompanied by the seizure of over $10 billion dollars of assets

(k)  Sanctions on the banking system

(l)   US direct intervention including selection and appointment of opposition leaders and ‘dummy’ representatives overseas.

In brief, the US has been engaged for two decades to bring down the Venezuelan government. It combines economic, military, social and media warfare. The US strategy has reduced living standards, undermined economic activity, increased poverty, forced immigration and surged crimes. Despite that the sole surviving super power has failed to dislodge the government and impose a client regime.

Despite the two decades of pressure by the world’s biggest imperial power, which led to the highest rate of inflation and despite the illegal seizure of billions of dollars of Venezuelan assets, the people remain loyal to their government. The reasons are clear and forthright.

The Venezuelan majority has a history of poverty, marginalization and repression, including the bloody massacre of thousands of protestors in 1989. Millions lived in shanty towns, excluded from higher education and health facilities. The US provided arms and advisers to buttress the politicians who now form the greater part of the US opposition to President Maduro. The US- oligarch alliance extracted billions of dollars from contracts from the oil industry.

The second reason for the defeat of the US is the long-term large-scale military support of the Chavez-Maduro governments. Former President Chavez instilled a powerful sense of nationalist loyalty among the military which resists and opposes US efforts to subvert the soldiers.

The Venezuelans government defeated the US-backed coups and lockouts, these victories encouraged the belief that the popular government could resist and defeat the US-oligarch opposition. Victories strengthened confidence in the will of the people.

The cumulative socio-economic benefits consolidate support for the Venezuelan leadership despite the hardships the US induced in recent times. The mass of the people have gained a new life and have a lot to lose if the US- oligarchy return to power. A successful US coup will likely massacre tens of thousands of popular supporters of the government. The bourgeoisie will take its revenge for those who have ruled and benefited at the expense of the rich.

The Venezuelan government retained mass electoral support because of the deep socio-economic changes that entrenched mass support in contrast to the center-left regimes in Argentina, Brazil and Ecuador which won three elections but were defeated by their right-wing opponents, including electoral partners, with a downturn in the economy, and the flight of middle-class voters and parties.

Venezuela linkages with allies in Russia, China and Cuba provided ‘life jackets’ of economic and military support in the face of US interventions, something the center- left governments failed to pursue. Venezuela built regional alliances with nearly half of South America, weakening US attempts to form a regional or US invasion force.

Legitimacy of US acts against Venezuela

The US has undertaken various steps for bringing regime change in Venezuela. As usual, it has been joined by some member countries of European Union. Though, the super power has failed in achieving its objective, people of Venezuela are bearing extreme distress. Does the civilized world have the slightest realization that the US actions to execute regime change in Venezuela are illegal?

In January, Juan Guaidó declared himself interim president, in a strategy orchestrated by the US to seize power from President Nicolás Maduro. In March, Guaidó announced that Operation Freedom, an organization established to overthrow the Maduro government, would take certain tactical actions beginning in April. The plan anticipated that the Venezuelan military will turn against Maduro.

This strategy was detailed in a regime change manual prepared by the US Global Development Lab, a branch of the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The manual advocated the creation of rapid expeditionary development teams to partner with the CIA and US Special Forces to conduct a mix of offensive, defensive, and stability operations in extremis conditions.

Guaidó is funded by USAID’s sister organization, the National Endowment for Democracy, which is notorious for meddling in other countries and putting a good face on the CIA’s dirty business. The US generally opts for low-intensity conflict over full-scale wars. The low-intensity conflict involves four tools of regime change: sanctions or economic warfare; propaganda or information warfare; covert and proxy war; and aerial bombardment. In Venezuela, the US has used the first and second, with the third and fourth now on the table since the first two have created chaos but so far not toppled the government.

The sanctions imposed by the Trump administration in January had an immediate, very harsh impact on Venezuela’s economy, and on the general population, which depends on the export revenue from oil for essential imports including medicine, food, medical equipment, and other life-saving necessities. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Human Rights Watch issued a report documenting food and medicine shortages and sharp increases in disease throughout Venezuela. They characterize the situation as a humanitarian emergency and recommend a full-scale response by the United Nations Secretary General.

 The US misuse of humanitarian assistance as a cover for smuggling weapons and other non humanitarian items also has a long history in Latin American countries, Alfred De Zayas, former UN special rapporteur in Venezuela, said in an interview with AntiDiplomatico. De Zayas called out the United States for its hypocritical policy: “It is not possible to be a major cause of the economic crisis — having imposed … sanctions, financial blockades and economic war — and then mutating into a good Samaritan.”

The US is adamant at increasing the suffering of the Venezuelan people, in hopes they will rise up against Maduro. Similar approach was used by the Eisenhower administration after the 1959 Cuban Revolution. It was based on a State Department memo that proposed a line of action that makes the greatest inroads in denying money and supplies to Cuba, to decrease monetary and real wages, to bring about hunger, desperation and the overthrow of the Fidel Castro government. The US economic blockade against Cuba continues to hurt the people but they have not overthrown their government.

Venezuela has asked for and received assistance from the United Nations, Russia, China, Turkey, India and Cuba, De Zayas reported that was humanitarian and offered in good faith and without strings attached. US aid is the fruit of the poison tree.

On April 3, Sen. Marco Rubio, who has helped lead the charge for regime change in Venezuela, introduced a bill in the Senate aimed at getting approval of US$400 million assistance for Venezuela and take steps to facilitate regime change. It would assessed the declining cohesion inside the Venezuelan military and security forces and the Maduro regime, and described the factors that would accelerate the decision making of individuals to break with the Maduro regime and recognize Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela.

At the end of March, the Russian government sent 100 troops to Venezuela. Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said, “Russian specialists … arrived in accordance with the clauses of a bilateral agreement on technical-military cooperation.”

In early April, Russia announced plans to install a training facility for military helicopters in Venezuela. The Trump administration is rattling its sabers at Russia. US National Security Adviser John Bolton warned that the US considers the presence of military forces from outside the Western Hemisphere a direct threat to international peace and security in the region. Russia, however, denies that its military presence in Venezuela poses a military threat. “The Russian side did not violate anything: neither the international agreements nor Venezuelan laws,” according to Zakharova.

Venezuelan Foreign Affairs Minister Jorge Arreaza cited the hypocrisy of U.S. policy. He said “Such cynicism that a country with more than 800 military bases around the world, much of them in Latin America, and a growing military budget of more than US$700 billion, intends to interfere with the military-technical cooperation program between Russia and Venezuela.”

In late March, the US House of Representatives approved a bill called the “Russian-Venezuelan Threat Mitigation Act” to gauge Russia’s influence in Venezuela. It aimed to devise a strategy to counter threats from Russian-Venezuelan cooperation. The bill also required assessment of national security risks posed by potential Russian acquisition of CITGO’s United States energy infrastructure holdings.

To conclude the UN Charter prohibits the use or threat of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another nation. The Charter of the Organization of American States forbids any country from intervening in the external affairs of another nation. And the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights guarantees the right to self-determination.

US declares Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran "Terrorist Organization"

On 8^th April 2019, the US declared Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran, a Foreign Terrorist Organization. The IRGC is Iran’s most powerful military and security organization as well as a key economic player. "This unprecedented step, led by the Department of State, recognizes the reality that Iran is not only a State Sponsor of Terrorism, but that the IRGC actively participates in, finances, and promotes terrorism as a tool of statecraft," said the US President Donald Trump.

The IRGC was created after the 1979 revolution to enforce Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s concept of an Islamic state. The Guards played a crucial role not only in crushing early opposition to Khomeini’s vision, but also in repelling Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iran in 1980. Since then, the Guards have functioned as both the primary internal and external security force. 

This declaration represents the latest escalation of the US administration’s "maximum pressure" campaign targeting Iran’s malign activities. The IRGC was already designated under US Treasury counter-proliferation authorities (EO 13382) in 2007, and then again for human rights abuses ‑ along with the Basij Resistance Force and the Law Enforcement Forces ‑ under EO 13553 in 2011.  

Iran responded to this action by saying, “The major effect of this designation is to make it extraordinarily difficult for the US to bring Iran back into the global community of nations and global financial system at any point in the future if political circumstances merit such a climb down.” Iranian officials also do not view this latest development as a precursor to a military conflict between Iran and the US. 

Detaining additional US citizens, testing missiles, or renewing harassment of US vessels in the Gulf are low-risk options that Iran could pursue in response to the IRGC designation.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) responded to the State Department’s designation of the IRGC by designating the US government as a state sponsor of terrorism and US Central Command (CENTCOM) and all its forces as a terrorist organization. President Hassan Rouhani threatened to restart Iran’s nuclear program in a speech marking the National Day of Nuclear Technology. 

Iranian newspapers spanning the country’s political spectrum reacted to the US State Department’s designation of the IRGC as a foreign terrorist organization with a mix of outrage, bombast, and expressions of solidarity with the IRGC.  

International reaction to the IRGC designation has been mixed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked President Donald Trump for the move in a pair of tweets in English and Hebrew. Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi said that his country tried to dissuade the US from proceeding with the designation.